June 20, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Races like the Ohio Derby are prime landing spots for horses exiting the Triple Crown.
Background:
Saturday’s Ohio Derby will be one of the first regional Derby races offered after the Triple Crown, and these races often lure name players the public got acquainted through the Triple Crown. But are they good bets in this ‘re-set’ of races?
Data Points:
I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Ohio Derby entrants over the past 8 years, 77 in all. I separated those who exited Triple Crown starts and those who did not and compared records.
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Non-Triple Crown Starters in the Ohio Derby
62: 4-13-19
6% Wins (2014, 2018, 2020, 2021)
$0.63 ROI
58% In The Money
Triple Crown Starters in the Ohio Derby
15: 4-3-5
27% Wins (2015, 2016, 2017, 2019)
$1.03 ROI
73% In The Money
Bottom line:
The Triple Crown alumni have less than one-quarter of the Ohio Derby starters over the past 8 years, yet are on equal footing in wins with a much higher win percentage (+21%). The Triple Crown starters also are more likely to finish in the money by 15% and have a much higher ROI (+$0.40) compared to non-Triple Crown starters. Even with non-Triple Crown horses winning the past 2 years in the Ohio Derby, the assumption that the Ohio Derby is a prime landing spot for TC alumni is true.
Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out where each Ohio Derby starter has come from most recently in terms of both tracks and race classes.