Rebel S. (G2) & Honeybee S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park
8.5F on Dirt (February 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 83 8.5-furlong graded stakes at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 92 contenders, 22 winners (24%, $104.60 Win Return, 156 ROI%), 32 Place (34%), 53 Show (57%, $14.50 Show Return)
The train towards the Kentucky Derby weekend rolls on and gains steam with every passing week. Next stop: Oaklawn Park, host of Saturday's $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) for colts with Derby aspirations and the Honeybee S. (G3) for fillies aiming for the lilies.
The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 Turn Time has produced 24% winners of the 8.5 furlong graded stakes in Hot Springs since 2012.
It's true that the wild $104.60 Win Return is due in large part to Super Steed, the 62-1 winner of the 2019 Southwest Stakes. However, this handicapping factor has pointed to two other recent Rebel winners - Magnum Moon ($8.00) in 2018 and Concert Tour ($5.40) in 2021. The latest success with this factor came just three weeks ago when A Mo Reay captured the Bayakoa S. for older distaffers, generating a $6.20 Win mutuel.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.