Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Dirt (February 18)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 21 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 22 contenders, 5 winners (22%, $44.60 Win Return, 201 ROI%), 8 Place (36% $13.60 Place Return) 14 show (63% $8.20 Show Return)
Saturday´s Risen Star Stakes has drawn an incredibly competitive field of 14 sophomores colts all vying for a Kentucky Derby berth.
The race begged for a deep dive into the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and we found that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds.
Among the recent winners ranking first in this handicapping factor is Modernist, the $27.60 winner of the 2nd division of the Risen Star in 2020, the first year this race was carded at 9 furlongs.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.