Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Dirt (February 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 23 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 5 winners (20%, $40.60 Win Return, 184 ROI%), 8 Place (33% $9.60 Place Return) 14 show (58% $4.20 Show Return)
Saturday´s Risen Star Stakes has drawn an incredibly competitive field of 12 sophomores colts vying for a Kentucky Derby berth.
The race begged for a deep dive into the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and we found that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has been a lucrative handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds.
Over 20% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have found the winner's circle, generating a $40.60 Win Return and nearly 60% have factored in the trifecta, including Zandon in 2022.
Among the recent winners ranking first in this handicapping factor is Modernist, the $27.60 winner of the 2nd division of the Risen Star in 2020, the first year this race was carded at 9 furlongs.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
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