9F on Dirt (April 14)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: last 5 runnings of the Arkansas Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 5 contenders, 3 winners (60%, $7.40 flat win bet profit, 174 ROI%, 4 in the money 80%, $9.20 place bet profit, $4.50 show bet profit)
The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby had drawn another field worthy of its grade with the unbeaten sensation Magnum Moon and Solomini (a G1 winner until the stewards intervened) the headliners. Using Betmix Angler to analyze the past five runnings of the Arkansas Derby we find that Best Lifetime Speed has been a strong predictor of success.
In fact, three of the past five winners, along with a 7-1 runner up, have ranked first in this factor with positive ROIs showing across the board. It's true that favored American Pharoah (2015) and Classic Empire (2017) are among the three winners. But the latter entered last year's contest under a cloud of uncertainty after a curious third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes. The sample also includes 2013 winner Overanlyze who was among three contenders under 4-1 (including eventual Preakness hero Oxbow). This year's race shapes up similarly on the tote board and this Sharp Angle can provide an extra degree of confidence when deciding between closely matched runners.
How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Using the Factor Ranking sliders in Betmix Birddog, find the horse that ranks 1st in Best Lifetime Speed.