Commonwealth Turf S. (G3)
8.5F on turf at Churchill Downs (November 9)
Races Analyzed: Last 28 8.5-furlong turf graded stakes for 3YOs at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 26 contenders, 8 winners (30%) $38.90 Win Return, 14 place/show (53%) $5.00 place return & 4.10 show return.
Breeders' Cup swallowed up many of the early November graded races in North America, leaving just one this weekend. But it's a good one. The Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes for sophomore turfers has drawn an overflow field.
Competitive races like this are perfect for Betmix Angler handicapping database analysis. Sure enough, we found a profitable predictive factor for this race type.
Average of Last 3 Late Pace is that factor and it's pointed to 30% winners, 53% in-the-money finishers and yielded positive returns across the board. And it's already worked this year with last spring's American Turf S. (G2) hero Digital Age ($19.20) among the winners.