Tag Archives: Betting

Sharp Angles – Saturday Stakes at Laurel

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Howard M. Bender Memorial S.
Willa On the Move S.
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 44 6F dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 10 of 44 races (23%, 102.7 ROI%)
Or: Won/placed in 29 of 44 races (66%, 109.9 ROI%)

laurelThe folks at Laurel are doing their best to help racing fans and horseplayers chase away the winter blues with a four-stakes card on Saturday, December 10. Two of the stakes are for older sprinters going 6 furlongs on the main track - the Howard M. Bender Memorial S. for males and the Willa on the Move S. for the distaffers. As noted above, Trainer/Jockey team success has been a very good predictor in this race type with 66% of the horses ranking first in this factor contributing to the exacta. The 10 winners are pretty evenly distributed between males (6) and females (4) so this angle can be safely applied to both of the Saturday stakes. The angle also has recency on it’s side. Among the winners are a pair of early 2016 stakes winners in Karen’s Silk ($8 winner of the January 16 Marshua S.) and Sweet on Smokey (winner of the January 2 What a Summer S. at a $6.60 mutuel).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Haybusa One, 4th in Hollywood Derby at 4.60-1.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Green

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There are four Breeders' Cup races for older runners on the turf. In the first Sharp Angles post we took a look at the Turf Sprint. Today we highlight some potentially profitable factors for the Turf, Mile and Filly & Mare Turf

Turf - 12 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 7 Graded races at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 7 races (43%) for $18.80 Win ROI

We have a small sample here but this factor highlighted the most recent BC Turf winner at Santa Anita - Main Sequence (pictured), who got past likely 2016 favorite Flintshire at a $14.04 mutuel.

Other ‘speed’ factors like Best Last Speed have also proven profitable in this race type at Santa Anita.

main_sequence_bc_turf_2014_615x400_orig

Mile - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 13 Grade 1 races at 8 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 13 races (46%) for $46.40 Win ROI

This factor has pointed to a pair of double digit winners, including Midnight Storm, the $11.20 victor in this summer’s Shoemaker Mile. Wise Dan is also included in the sample for his second Mile score in 2013 ($3.60)

Filly & Mare Turf - 10 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 8 Graded 1 for fillies/mares at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 8 races (50%) for $19.80 Win ROI

We’d like to see a little higher ROI on an Angle that’s hit at a 50% rate but this factor has produced the last two Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf heroines at Santa Anita - Dank ($5) in 2013 and Dayatthespa ($13) in 2014.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

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Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

takechargebrandikld85_2

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

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