Dania Beach S. and Ginger Brew S.
7.5F on the turf at Gulfstream Park on January 7
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 7.5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 overall qualifying horses; 3 winners (17%, 56.8 ROI%) & 11 total win/place/show (65%, 141 ROI%, $2 place & show flat bet profit)
The stakes-packed January 6 card at Gulfstream Park includes a pair of blacktype events at the unique distance of 7.5 furlongs on the turf. The 15 previous stakes run over this course and distance yield 17 qualifying horses who ranked first in Average of Last E2 Pace. An impressive 65% of those runners have hit the board in this race type. The win percentage of these qualifiers is a little lower that we’d like to see but among the winners is 2015 Dania Beach winner Night Prowler, who paid $7 as the second choice. It’s also worth noting that a $2 show bet on all of these runners would have resulted in a $14.10 profit.
While that’s all well and good, the real value of this angle appears to be in isolating a horse to key with some confidence in the exotics. Among the other horses in the sample is a 15-1 runner up (She’s Spooky, 2014 Voodoo Dancer S.) and Macone, who completed the trifecta in the 2015 El Prado S. at nearly 13-1.
Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Power Alert the $3.60 winner of the Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
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