Tag Archives: Gulfstream Park

Sharp Angles – Florida Derby & Mervin Muniz H.

We've been on a very good roll with the Sharp Angles blog the past six weeks, pointing to a total of five winners from nine qualifying contenders. That's a 55% strike rate. The flat win bet ROI on all Sharp Angles plays so far in 2017 is now $8.20 and they've shown a small show bet profit as well. This week we're brining back a pair of winning Sharp Angles that can also be applied to two of the big races on the first 'Super Saturday' of the year.

Florida Derby (G1)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 15 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 9 winners (43%, $115.00 flat win bet profit, 373 ROI%, 11 total win/place, $16.10 flat place bet profit, 138 ROI%).

This Angle hit just last week when third choice Fear the Cowboy powered to victory in the Skip Away Stakes (G3). While that race is for older runners Last Turn Time has also pointed to the winners of three of the past four editions of the Florida Derby: Nyquist ($4.40) in 2016, Constitution ($7.60) in 2015 and Orb ($7.80) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Mervin Muniz H. (G2)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 9 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $14.60 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 6 first or second (46%, $13.00 flat place bet profit, 150 ROI%)

We first highlighted this Angle back in late February for the Fair Grounds Handicap and got Enterprising home first at an $8.00 mutuel. It’s been especially effective in recent runners of the Mervin Muniz with three of the past four winners ranking first in Last Turn Time: Chocolate Ride in($10.60) 2015, Skyring ($17.40) in 2014 and Amira’s Prince ($4.60) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Last Week’s Results - Fear the Cowboy ($9.20) 1st in Skip Away Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Holy Bull S.

Holy Bull S. (G2)
8.5F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (February 4)
Races Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 16 qualifying horses, 8 winners (50%, $19.80 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 161), 11 win/place (68%, $5 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 115)

Excitement for the 2017 Kentucky Derby will be amped up this weekend after three more graded preps at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. Betmix Angler may be of help in handicapping Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull Stakes, a mile and one sixteenth (8.5F) affair that has drawn a field of nine Derby aspirants.

The past four Holy Bull winners have ranked first in Best Speed Fast Track - Mohaymen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). This factor has pointed to four other winners, including Wildcat Red, the $11 winner of the 2014 Fountain of Youth S. (G2).

No one will be buying a private island with these payoffs but there is always value in determining whether it’s prudent to stand with or against the public’s choices. With a strong fave like champion Classic Empire in this year’s Holy Bull field, Best Speed Fast Track should be the ideal place to start handicapping his chances of finding the winner's circle again on Saturday.

Last Sharp Angles results: Lobelia 8th at 53-1 in La Prevoyante H. & Danish Dynaformer 8th at 9/2 in W. L. McKnight H.

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Sharp Angles – Dania Beach & Ginger Brew Stakes

Dania Beach S. and Ginger Brew S.
7.5F on the turf at Gulfstream Park on January 7
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 7.5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 overall qualifying horses; 3 winners (17%, 56.8 ROI%) & 11 total win/place/show (65%, 141 ROI%, $2 place & show flat bet profit)


2015 Dania Stakes winner Night Prowler ($7)

The stakes-packed January 6 card at Gulfstream Park includes a pair of blacktype events at the unique distance of 7.5 furlongs on the turf. The 15 previous stakes run over this course and distance yield 17 qualifying horses who ranked first in Average of Last E2 Pace. An impressive 65% of those runners have hit the board in this race type. The win percentage of these qualifiers is a little lower that we’d like to see but among the winners is 2015 Dania Beach winner Night Prowler, who paid $7 as the second choice.  It’s also worth noting that a $2 show bet on all of these runners would have resulted in a $14.10 profit.

While that’s all well and good, the real value of this angle appears to be in isolating a horse to key with some confidence in the exotics. Among the other horses in the sample is a 15-1 runner up (She’s Spooky, 2014 Voodoo Dancer S.) and Macone, who completed the trifecta in the 2015 El Prado S. at nearly 13-1.


Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Power Alert the $3.60 winner of the Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs

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Triple Crown Contender Profile – Mohaymen

The superlatives began flying around Gulfstream Park (and the internet) the second Mohaymen crossed the finish line in the January 30 Holy Bull Stakes (G2). And with good reason. The Kiaran McLaughlin pupil didn't have an easy go of it yet still drew off under a hand ride to score by 3 1/2 lengths.

"He took my breath away," McLaughlin said of his perfect 4-for4 colt after the race.

“Just chills up and down the back. He’s just really good," added Shadwell Farm Racing Manager Rick Nichols.

Those impressions were confirmed four weeks later with his powerful score over Zulu in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

Watch the Fountain of Youth Stakes

But his flop in the April 2 Florida Derby left his connections and many racing pundits scratching their heads. Handicappers will have to decide if his fourth-place run to Nyquist, while wide and over a drying-out track he many not have handled, can be forgiven. His previous form was certainly outstanding.

Moyahmen showed good adaptability in his three juvenile victories in 2015, including a pair of graded triumphs in the Nashua Stakes (G3) and Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. In the Remsen, in particular, he was faced with a narrow opening between two rivals at the top of the stretch, showing good courage and acceleration to burst through to daylight.

The roan colt found himself in a similar situation in the Holy Bull Stakes, this time on the backstretch, where he was purposely bottled up by a trio of rivals including John Velasquez on second choice Greenpointcrusader. But Mohaymen once again used a tactical burst to extricate himself from a potential trap. As soon as he was in the clear he relaxed back for rider Junior Alvarado for another furlong before bounding away in-hand from Greenpointcrusader down the stretch.

"I just waited and waited to see what Johnny (Velazquez aboard Greenpointcrusader) was going to do," Alvarado recounted in a post-race interview. "He left me a little room, but sometimes that can be a little trap. I just waited and waited and then it got to a point where he didn't come inside and the horse in front was backing up, so I said, 'I've got the best horse. It's time to be making my own move. After that it was pretty much over."

In the past 24 years only Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1996), Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009) finished off-the-board in their final Derby preps. Thunder Gulch may prove to the most comparable to Mohaymen. The D. Wayne Lukas-trainee made a successful run through the Gulfstream Park three-year-old series before a faltering fourth over a tricky Keeneland surface in the Bluegrass Stakes.

On the plus side for Mohaymen, he's a $2.2 million yearling so you can bet he has exceptional looks and conformation. His pedigree is flawless too for a Classics contender, being a son of North America's top sire Tapit, a grandson of 1992 Belmont Stakes/Breeders' Cup Classic champion A. P. Indy. The Tapits can excel on any surface and at any distance. His 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, who also captured the Met Mile, is a good example of that versatility.

Mohaymen is certainly in good hands with Lexington, Kentucky native Kiarin McLaughlin, who has been battling MS for the past couple decades. He is right up there on the list of the best trainers who have yet to win a Derby. He came close in 2005 with Closing Argument, a desperate neck shy of Giacomo, and had a good one last year in 4th-place finisher Frosted. For that reason alone, if Mohaymen should wear the roses on May 7, there won't be many racing industry folks upset with the result.