Tag Archives: Horse Racing

Betmix Labs

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We spend most of our time at Betmix working on new handicapping tools.

We get an idea, or a customer presents an idea to us, and we start developing. Most of the time we end up with something pretty nice like BirdDog or Angler. Sometimes we "rip up our tickets" and start over.

In many cases we develop tools that are really cool, but maybe only truly useful in certain situations or for certain types of handicappers.

Rather than keeping those tools on the shelf, we have created a page called Betmix Labs. On this page you can experiment with some of the pretty neat tools we have created over the last year that have only been available "in house".

Each of these tools have strengths and weaknesses, and you can learn more about them by visiting the Labs page or watching the tutorial video.

Eliminator: This tool was designed to be the easiest handicapping method we offer. Its surprisingly accurate in many situations, extremely easy to use and pretty fun to play with.

Tackle Box: This tool allows you to easily access a lot of data from Angler. Pick from 1 to 3 factors and find out how horses with similar rankings have done in previous races.

Range Finder: A great tool for analyzing races where each horse has a few wins under their belt.  This tool will show you how similar today's race is to past races that the horse won.

Betmix Labs is available to monthly and yearly subscribers.  We hope that you take some time to play with these new tools and that they inspire you to think of new ways to handicap.

Sharp Angles – Sugar Swirl Stakes

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Sugar Swirl S. (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park
Races Analyzed: 14 6F graded dirt races
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 22 overall qualifying horses; 8 winners (36%, 151 ROI%) & 18 on the board (72%, 105 ROI%)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

It’s not uncommon for horses to tie atop a given factor ranking, as is the case here where 22 horses across 14 races ranked first in In the Money %. In this instance, however, the angle has proven profitable over the long term even if multiple horses were bet in the same race. And it’s certainly a great starting point for this race type. A horse ranking first in this category has won 57% of the time and finished in the money nearly three quarters of the time.

It obviously makes sense that horses ranking first in In the Money % would continue to run in the money. But Betmix users have the data that confirms the intuition, data that can lead to more confident wagering.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

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Sharp Angles – Saturday Stakes at Laurel

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Howard M. Bender Memorial S.
Willa On the Move S.
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 44 6F dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 10 of 44 races (23%, 102.7 ROI%)
Or: Won/placed in 29 of 44 races (66%, 109.9 ROI%)

laurelThe folks at Laurel are doing their best to help racing fans and horseplayers chase away the winter blues with a four-stakes card on Saturday, December 10. Two of the stakes are for older sprinters going 6 furlongs on the main track - the Howard M. Bender Memorial S. for males and the Willa on the Move S. for the distaffers. As noted above, Trainer/Jockey team success has been a very good predictor in this race type with 66% of the horses ranking first in this factor contributing to the exacta. The 10 winners are pretty evenly distributed between males (6) and females (4) so this angle can be safely applied to both of the Saturday stakes. The angle also has recency on it’s side. Among the winners are a pair of early 2016 stakes winners in Karen’s Silk ($8 winner of the January 16 Marshua S.) and Sweet on Smokey (winner of the January 2 What a Summer S. at a $6.60 mutuel).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Haybusa One, 4th in Hollywood Derby at 4.60-1.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Hollywood Derby

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Hollywood Derby (G1)
9 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar
Races Analyzed: 9 Del Mar G1’s 9 furlongs on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%), 269% ROI

With Hollywood Park now transforming into the home of the Los Angeles Rams, the December 3 Hollywood Derby will be run for the third time over the Del Mar turf course at 9 furlongs. Three of the four winners in this 9 furlong grassy G1 winner sample have paid double digits with 2014 Del Mar Oaks winner Personal Diary (pictured) showing the highest mutuel. That filly paid $20.20 when she crossed the wire first for trainer Victoria Oliver.

personal_diary_del_mar_oaks_2014_615x400_orig

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

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Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 41 Laurel stakes races at 6 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 22 of the 41 races (53%) for $127.80 Win ROI

In it’s heyday the DeFrancis Dash was won by champions like Housebuster, Cherokee Run and Smoke Glacken. The race has had it’s ups and down, along with the Maryland racing industry, but has regained graded status for the 2016 edition. Indeed, a very solid field has gathered for Saturday’s running at Laurel. As noted above, over half of the 6F dirt stakes at Laurel have been won by the horse ranked first in Best Speed Last 3. The large Win ROI is due largely to Zee Bros, who scored in the 2014 De Francis for D. Wayne Lukas at 29-1.

zee-bros-de-francis-dash

Zee Bros, the 29-1 winner of the 2014 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

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Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

takechargebrandikld85_2

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Angler Tips & Tricks

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Some helpful new features have been added to Angler, and we have a new video that walks you through a few ways that you can use Angler to your advantage.

1. You can now click one button to see if any horses running today match any of your saved Angles, and print out the report.

2. Your Angles are now saved with their stats so you can sort through Win%, Win ROI etc.

Angler Tips & Tricks video

Learn how to use Angler to evaluate single horses in any race.

Learn how to create an Angle for a specific race type.

Learn how to create an Angle based on any condition or advantage...

Betmix Tip – BirdDog Handicapping Overview

Handicapping Blog, , ,
We've added a few items to the Handicapping overview widget (found in BirdDog) that should make things a bit easier.

There are now check boxes by each section and group.  When something is checked it will be part of the consensus score, if it is not checked it will not be used.

We have also updated the MixBot section. You will see the mix for the most recent race, most recent favorite (paid under $6.00), most recent mid-range winner (paid between $6 - $15) and most recent longshot (paid over $15.00)

Take a look at this short video for more information:
Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day