Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
8.5F on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs (February 11)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YO colts at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 11 qualifying horses, 4 winners (36%, $30.60 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 239), 6 win/place (54%, $9.4 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 142.7)

The 2017 Kentucky Derby trail winds through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 11 with the 38th edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). The Davis is run at the same 8.5F distance on the main track as the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby (G2) so the last four runnings of each fixture constitutes our eight-race group.

It’s a small sample but one that has yielded very good and very specific success in this very race. Ranking first in Win % has pointed to three of the past four Sam Davis winners: 2015 champ Ocean Knight ($5.20), 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) and Falling Sky ($17.80) who triumphed by a neck in 2013. We’ll certainly take those double-digit payoffs.

Last Sharp Angles results: Classic Empire, 3rd at .50-1 in Holy Bull Stakes

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