December 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Early speed horses are successful when shortening distances.
Background:
Horseplayers who see a lot of 1s in the past performance lines in the early part of the race often are attracted to horses who are attempting to run a shorter distance this time. The speed theoretically can carry without the need for as much distance stamina.
Data Points:
I looked at all races in 2021 through December 5 and analyzed horses who had made the lead in their most recent start and were running a shorter distance in the return bid. The comparison was for horses at sprint distances at 5-1/2, 6, 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs.
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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 17.3% with a $0.74 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 13.1% with a $0.71 ROI.
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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 15.3% with a $0.75 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 12.8% with a $0.76 ROI.
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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 16.2% with a $0.82 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 12.1% with a $0.71 ROI.
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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.3% with a $0.66 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.0% with a $0.76 ROI.
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Overall Findings:
At each of the common sprint distances, horses who made the lead last time out were more likely to win when shortening their distance than those shortening distance after not making the lead. The spread is greatest at 5-1/2 furlongs, where last-out leaders won 4.2% more often than those trimming the trip exiting races when they didn’t make the lead. That margin closed closest at 7 furlongs, where last-out front-runners barely held a .3% edge when on the cut-back.
Bottom line:
When you look at a 12.4% win rate for all horses in races at 7 furlongs or less, you see that horses who made the lead last time and cut back in distance win at a higher rate at each of these distances than the general likelihood of winners. They also win at a stronger rate than fellow cut-back distance runners who weren’t capable of making the front last time. Overall, you’d have to surmise by these numbers that it’s a solid angle that holds water.
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, decipher which tracks are most likely to excel with these kind of cut-back speed horses.