Pippin S.
8.5F on Dirt at Oaklawn Park (January 7, 2023)
Races Analyzed: Last 48 Oaklawn Park 8.5-furlong non-graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´s Track
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 17 winners (34%) $64.80 Win Return, 166 ROI%, 21 place/show (42%), 27 Show (55%).

A competitive field of 10 fillies and mares are set to square off in Saturday´s $150,000 Pippin Stakes on the road to the Grade 1 Apple Blossom S. at Oaklawn Park.

We fired up the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database to look for clues in the 8.5 furlong non graded Stakes at the Hot Springs oval and found that the Avg. Earnings Today´s Track has produced 34% winners and a mouth-watering $64.80 Win Return.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2)
9F on Turf at Gulfstream Park (December 31)
Races Analyzed: Last 24 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong graded turf stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 7 winners (28%) $85.40 Win Return, 270 ROI%, 12 place/show (32%) $2.50 Place Return, 12 Show (48%).

Gulfstream Park hosts a spectacular 6-stakes card on Saturday that includes 13 middle distance turfers breaking from the gate in the Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2).

This contest begged analysis from the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and, true to form, Angler highlighted a positive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded grass events in Hallandale, Florida.

Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to 28% winners of this race type, producing a mouth-watering $85.40 Win Return. Among the winners is 2019 Ft. Lauderdale champ, Instilled Regard ($8.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 19, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Background:

Handicappers often claim that 7-furlong dirt races, the elongated sprint if you will, are races where horses who perform often and well at 7 furlongs, are preferred.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all 7-furlong main track races in North America this year. I wanted to see if horses who ran shorter, longer or the same had any statistical advantage.

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7-furlong starters who last raced less than 7 furlongs won 13.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.

7-furlong starters who last raced more than 7 furlongs won 12.8% with a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

7-furlong starters who last raced exactly 7 furlongs won 14.7% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

No doubt the horses coming out of 7-furlong races had more success, winning 1.6-1.9% higher and posting an ROI $.09-$.10 more. I found interesting that horses exiting top-3 finishes at 7 furlongs last time jump to nearly 17% wins. The old adage of cut-back horses excelling at 7 furlongs is debunked with those horses performing worst of all. To compare, at 6 furlongs, horses going the same distance as last time win 13.9%, compared to 13.6% for those adding distance (much closer to the identical influence). Note the cut-backs win 12.7% at 6 furlongs.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out the results for your favorite or local track. Or, see which trainers do best at 7 furlongs with the various prep distance moves.

Monday Myths: Are Longshots Fit for the Place Slot?

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Monday Myths: Late Season Debuts, Good or Bad Bets?

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Monday Myths: Will Turf Racing Bring Gulfstream Payoff Increases?

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H. Allan Jerkens S. at Gulfstream Park
16F on Turf (December 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 8 16-furlong turf stakes at Gulfstream Pak
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer 6 Month Win %
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 5 winners (62%, $21.80 Win Return, 2036ROI%), 5 Place (62%, 1.80 Place Return), 6 Show (75%, $14.20 Show Return)

Handicappers get a rare challenge on Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes covering 2 miles on the newly refurbished Hallandale grass course.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that 5 of the past 8 two mile grass marathons were won by the horse ranking first in the Trainer 6 month Win % handicapping factor. All 5 winners came in the Jerkens, including Run Time, who returned $22.20 in 2017, not to mention Cowtown, who completed the trifecta at 37-1 two years ago.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer 6 month Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 12, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Longshots are more likely to run second.

Background:

You’ll hear a lot of handicappers talk about back-wheeling a longshot in the exacta because said price horse is more likely to finish second than win. Is that true by the numbers or a defensive approach that lacks confidence in the selection because the public may disagree?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at its max sample size of 10,000 runners to see how horses 10-1 or more perform in terms of results. I then looked at the last 10,000 favorites and last 10,000 horses 5-1 in odds to see if the results were proportional.

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Longshots: 3% win, 6% finish second, 9% finish third, 81% finish out of the money

Favorites: 38% win, 21% finish second, 23% finish third, 27% finish out of the money

5-1 Shots: 15% win, 16% finish second, 17% finish third, 52% finish out of the money

Bottom line:

Longshots 10-1 or more, in fact, finish second twice as often as win by a 6% to 3% ratio. That’s in stark contrast to favorites, who win far more often than finish second (by a 17-point margin). Mid-range horses at 5-1 finish across the board first, second or third in about the same margins, give or take a point. The numbers suggest that putting a longshot second is a sound strategy. The $1 ROI for betting the 10-1 plus runners is $.73 to win and $.69 to place, so even though they click more often second, betting them to place is not a fruitful exchange. Second in the exacta makes more financial sense.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run this assumption at your favorite or local track to see how it shakes out.

Bear Fan S. at Golden Gate
6F on All Weather (December 10)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 52 6-furlong main track at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 57 contenders, 16 winners (28%, $114.40 Win Return, 200 ROI%), 20 Place (35%), 32 Show (56%)

A field of 11 filly and mare sprinters are set to face the starter in the Bear Fan Stakes, the Saturday feature at Golden Gate Fields.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor has not only pointed to 28% winners of this racetype but to an astounding $114 Win Return.

What´s even more compelling is that it´s not just one longshot winner that produced that juicy Win Return, but actually 5 double digit winners, including 3 that paid over $40!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 5, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption: 

First-time starters at season’s end aren’t as strong as those debuting earlier in the year.

Background: 

As we hit the final 4 weeks of 2022, horseplayers will be posed with debut runners around the country that are late to the party. Most often injuries before the first start are the culprit, so what chances do we give these runners at first asking?

Data Points: 

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters since the start of 2019, by the month of their debut, measuring win percentage and return on investment per every $1 bet.

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January first-time starters win 9.0% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.

February first-time starters win 9.6% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

March first-time starters win 9.1% with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.

April first-time starters win 10.0% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

May first-time starters win 11.4% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

June first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

July first-time starters win 10.2% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.

August first-time starters win 9.6% with a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.

September first-time starters win 9.5% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.

October first-time starters win 8.8% with a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

November first-time starters win 8.6% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.

December first-time starters win 8.8% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line: 

April through July, first-time starters win at the highest percentages, and that goes with the conventional thought of when the best horses typically debut. But the public understands that and perhaps those rookies of repute are easier to identify those months given the lowest ROIs of the year. Notice the uptick in ROI in November-Febuary, and you’ll see betting firsters this time of year can be more fruitful.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run these same queries but include your favorite track. Or sort by trainers to see which trainers debut with the most success by month to identify patterns.

Hollywood Derby (G1)
9F on Turf (December 3, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 50 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 57 contenders, 16 winners (28%, $32.00 Win Return, 128 ROI%), 23 Place 40%,) 30 Show (52%)

A deep and competitive field of sophomore turfers go for Grade 1 gold in Saturday´s Hollywood Derby at Del Mar.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to hone in on the important handicapping factors for any racetype. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Jockey Current Meet factor has been very useful in the 9-furlong turf stakes at the seaside oval.

Over a quarter of the contenders ranking first in this factor have crossed the wire first while generating a sterling $32 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet  slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption: 

The return to turf racing on Thursday at Gulfstream Park will provide an instant boost to payoffs. 

Background: 

A new turf course will be unveiled this week at Gulfstream Park as grass racing returns to the South Florida oval for the first time in more than five months. What can horseplayers expect in terms of returns?

Data Points: 

I fired up the Betmix database to look at racing this year at Gulfstream Park in terms of turf and non-turf (dirt/synthetic) races. I surveyed the average win payoff for all races on the comparable surfaces and then normalized for field size. I also wanted to see the impact of surface/payouts based on the class of the races.

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In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.3-1 on average.

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In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 5.6-1 on average.
In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 6.2-1 on average.

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In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.8-1 on average.

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In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.9-1 on average. 
In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.5-1 on average.

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In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.9-1 on average.

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In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 2.8-1 on average. 
In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.3-1 on average.

Bottom line: 

At any comparative point, the turf average winning odds easily exceeded the dirt returns. The maiden turf races will be particularly fruitful based on the numbers and a welcome return for bettors. The assumption that prices are about to increase with the return to turf is confirmed.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see how the same numbers may match up at your or favorite track besides Gulfstream.

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