Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries during December.

ARE 1-TURN MILES ABOUT SPEED OR STAMINA?

Are one-turn miles are more about speed than stamina?

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BETTING EARLY SPEED ON THE DISTANCE CUT-BACK

Are early speed horses successful when shortening distances?

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SNOWBIRDS RULE GULFSTREAM EARLY?

Do New York runners have the Gulfstream Park advantage as the snow birds head south for winter?

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WHEN DO WE FIND CLARITY IN THE 3-YEAR-OLD PICTURE?

The 3-year-old stakes picture takes some time to gain focus through the winter and spring.

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CAN PRAT & RISPOLI BE BEATEN ON TURF IN SOCAL?

Can you beat Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli in Southern California turf races?

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Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park
8F on Dirt (January 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 34 8-furlong non-graded main at Oaklawn
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 35 contenders, 11 winners (31%) $57.00 Win Return, (181 ROI%), 18 Place (51%) $33.40 Place Return, 24 Show (68%) $13.60 Show Return

Here we go! The 2022 Kentucky Derby trail officially kicks off with a quartet of Saturday points races for the nearly-turned sophomores.

The Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park honors the 2004 Derby/Preakness champ and has drawn the largest and most competitive field among the four New Year´ s Day preps.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace has been highly predictive and lucrative in the 8-furlong listed stakes in Hot Springs. Three of the past five Smarty Jones winners have ranked first in this handicapping factor and the overall numbers are compelling - a 31% strike rate and across the board positive returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

You can’t beat Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli in Southern California turf races.

Background:

The dominant turf-riding duo of Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli are like magnets when you handicap a Southern California grass race. Often it’s the first place the public looks in the past performances.

Data Points:

I studied every turf race in Southern California in 2020 and 2021, more than a thousand strong at Santa Anita and Del Mar.

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Prat and Rispoli won 386 of the 1095 turf races offered (35.2%).

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Prat and Rispoli rode 542 of the 1095 favorites in turf races offered (49.5%).

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Prat had a 24.8% win rate and $0.83 ROI in turf mounts.

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Rispoli had a 22.2% win rate and $1.04 ROI in turf mounts.

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Only JJ Hernandez (16.6%) and Joel Rosario (16.1%) have won more than 15% on turf with 40+ mounts.

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Prat and Rispoli won 72 of the 186 turf stakes races offered (38.7%).

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Prat and Rispoli rode 92 of the 186 favorites in turf races offered (49.4%).

Overall Findings:

Prat and Rispoli rode a significantly higher percentage of favorites, nearly 50%, than they did winners, just over 35%, on the turf. The public certainly follows their runners in the spirit of the study’s original premise. Rispoli was the more profitable follow, in fact showing a flat-bet 4% profit over the past 2 years. All other jockeys in the colony win at a combined 7.7% rate on turf with only 2 jockeys hitting 15% or more with 40+ mounts.

Bottom line:

It’s a bit of hyperbole to say you can’t beat Prat and Rispoli on turf. In fact, nearly 2 in 3 times, they do get beat. But their comparative dominance over the other individuals in the colony is unmistakable and the public honing in on just about half the favorites on turf from one of these two riders is an indication that the feeling is pretty ingrained.You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels on turf and distances the duo has the most likelihood for victory, or to be upset.

December 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The 3-year-old stakes picture takes some time to gain focus through the winter and spring.

Background:

With the turn of the calendar, many will turn their attention to the Triple Crown trail. It’s the most identified ‘season’ in horse racing and culminates in May and June. The months of January through April are when the class of each year’s class comes to the top. But do those stakes races in the ‘regular season’ get easier or harder to handicap as the 3-year-old crop defines itself?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for all 3-year-old graded stakes races for the colts/geldings over the last 8 years, going back to 2013. I wanted to see what the average price winner was in those races by month, January-February-March-April, as well as the percentage of winning favorites.

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The average 3-year-old graded stakes winner in January is 1.90-1 odds.
Favorites in 3-year-old graded stakes races win 59% in January.

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The average 3-year-old graded stakes winner in February is 5.28-1 odds.
Favorites in 3-year-old graded stakes races win 33% in February.

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The average 3-year-old graded stakes winner in March is 4.98-1 odds.
Favorites in 3-year-old graded stakes races win 37% in March.

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The average 3-year-old graded stakes winner in April is 4.62-1 odds.
Favorites in 3-year-old graded stakes races win 32% in April.

Overall Findings:

January had the lowest-priced returns as well as the highest rate of winning favorites in the survey. The average winner nearly 2.72 to 3.38 odds points lower than any other month. The percentage of winning favorites was a whopping 22-27 percentage points lower than the other months. The February through April results did decrease in terms of average win payoff as the prep season unfolded.

Bottom line:

There’s some truth to the trail coming together from February to April, but the initial month of the year has been absolutely locked in on shorter prices while some of the bigger horses remain on the sidelines for their sophomore returns.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which track circuits on the 3-year-old trail follow this lead and which do not?

Tinsel S. at Oaklawn Park
9F on Dirt (December 18)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 9-furlong main track stakes at Oaklwn
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 5 winners (23%) $15.80 Win Return, (137 ROI%), 8 Place (38%) $2.20 Place Return, 11 Show (52%) $5.40 Show Return

December racing at Oaklawn Park is brand new but the Betmix Angler online handicapping database has nearly 10 years now of racing data from the Hot Springs oval.

We put the data to the test to analyze Saturday´s inaugural Tinsel Stakes and found that the Distance Pedigree Rating handicapping factor has been fairly predictive in the 9-furlong stakes at Oaklawn. Horses ranking first in this more obscure handicapping factor have scored at a 23% rate while generating positive returns across the board.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Distance Pedigree Rating slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

New York runners have the Gulfstream Park advantage as the snow birds head south for winter.

Background:

December’s shift from north to south makes Gulfstream Park the place to be not only for the Floridians, but New York and Kentucky shippers as well. Most horseplayers consider the NYRA runners the class of the snowbirds and stronger than the year-‘round locals in South Florida. Let’s put the numbers against that.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for December results at Gulfstream Park to see where the early season winners came from. Once we get into the New Year, the majority of starters will already have relocated and had a start locally. The early season barometer will be looked at not only for which circuits horses came from, but also at the various class levels to assess strength. I used the past 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020 and opening week of the 2021 Championship Meet). For NYRA shippers, they are horses who last raced at Aqueduct, Belmont or Saratoga; Kentucky shippers last raced at Churchill, Keeneland, Turfway, Kentucky Downs or Ellis Park; Florida locals last raced at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West.

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In all races, NYRA shippers won 17.5% with an $0.88 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In all races, Kentucky shippers won 18.1% with an $1.08 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In all races, Florida locals won 10.0% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In maiden claimers, NYRA shippers won 18.2% with an $0.84 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden claimers, Kentucky shippers won 27.2% with an $1.55 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden claimers, Florida locals won 9.6% with an $0.80 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In maiden special weights, NYRA shippers won 19.5% with an $1.16 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden special weights, Kentucky shippers won 17.8% with an $0.89 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden special weights, Florida locals won 6.2% with an $0.52 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In claiming races, NYRA shippers won 15.4% with an $0.78 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In claiming races, Kentucky shippers won 13.8% with an $0.55 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In claiming races, Florida locals won 11.4% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In allowance races, NYRA shippers won 21.2% with an $0.81 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In allowance races, Kentucky shippers won 17.9% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In allowance races, Florida locals won 10.1% with an $0.69 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In stakes races, NYRA shippers won 14.2% with an $0.84 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In stakes races, Kentucky shippers won 15.3% with an $1.49 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In stakes races, Florida locals won 5.4% with an $0.39 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

Overall Findings:

The NY and KY raiders won at a higher percentage than the locals at every class level in our study with gaps anywhere from 2-17%. The Florida locals were most competitive in the claiming ranks. NYRA shippers rated best in 4 of the 6 class categories, while Kentucky led 2 – but Kentucky had the best win rate overall blended among the classes, thanks to total dominance in the maiden claiming ranks.

Bottom line:

The snowbirds absolutely have the edge, but it’s Kentucky on equal or better footing overall than NYRA when it comes to December at Gulfstream.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers have had the most snowbird success this time of year at Gulfstream.
 

Bear Fan S. at Golden Gate Fields
6F on All Weather (December 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 46 6-furlong main track stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 15 winners (30%) $82.60 Win Return, (184 ROI%), 18 Place (36%), 30 Show (61%).

A baker´´´ s dozen will line up in Saturday´´ s featured Bear Fan Stakes at Golden Gate. It´ s not a stretch to say that 13-horses fields are inherently challenging for handicappers. Luckily, the Betmix Angler online handicapping database is here to help.

Angler tells us that Average of Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor in the 6-furlong main track stakes at the Northern California oval. Horses ranking first in this factor have scored 30% of the time while generating a whopping Win Return of $82.60.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Early speed horses are successful when shortening distances.

Background:

Horseplayers who see a lot of 1s in the past performance lines in the early part of the race often are attracted to horses who are attempting to run a shorter distance this time. The speed theoretically can carry without the need for as much distance stamina.

Data Points:

I looked at all races in 2021 through December 5 and analyzed horses who had made the lead in their most recent start and were running a shorter distance in the return bid. The comparison was for horses at sprint distances at 5-1/2, 6, 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 17.3% with a $0.74 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 13.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 15.3% with a $0.75 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 12.8% with a $0.76 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 16.2% with a $0.82 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 12.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.3% with a $0.66 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.0% with a $0.76 ROI.

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Overall Findings:

At each of the common sprint distances, horses who made the lead last time out were more likely to win when shortening their distance than those shortening distance after not making the lead. The spread is greatest at 5-1/2 furlongs, where last-out leaders won 4.2% more often than those trimming the trip exiting races when they didn’t make the lead. That margin closed closest at 7 furlongs, where last-out front-runners barely held a .3% edge when on the cut-back.

Bottom line:

When you look at a 12.4% win rate for all horses in races at 7 furlongs or less, you see that horses who made the lead last time and cut back in distance win at a higher rate at each of these distances than the general likelihood of winners. They also win at a stronger rate than fellow cut-back distance runners who weren’t capable of making the front last time. Overall, you’d have to surmise by these numbers that it’s a solid angle that holds water.
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, decipher which tracks are most likely to excel with these kind of cut-back speed horses.

Cigar Mile at Aqueduct
8F on Dirt (December 4)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 35 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 38 contenders, 8 winners (21%) $83.40 Win Return, (209 ROI%), 10 Place (26%), 16 Show (42%) Show Return.

Saturday´ s Cigar Mile marks the last Grade 1 event on the 2021 NYRA calendar and handicappers are faced with a stern challenge.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some additional perspective and uncovered a very interesting approach. Angler tells us that the horse ranking first in the Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type handicapping factor has won 21% of the 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct.

While the Win % is a little lower than we typically promote, the $83.40 Win Return makes this Angle worth trying. This factor has also pointed to a pair of recent Cigar Mile champs - Connect ($5.00) and Tonalist ($6.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

One-turn miles are more about speed than stamina.

Background:

Saturday’s Cigar Mile at Aqueduct is one of the calendar’s premier races at the 1-turn mile trip on dirt. It joins races like the Met Mile at sister track Belmont on the seasonal slate of must-see races. Many handicappers believe these races play more like sprints than routes, given the 1-turn nature. We’ll put the data to the test.

Data Points:

The principal dirt tracks in the US that offer 1-turn mile races are Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill, Gulfstream and Laurel Park. I’ve dialed up the Betmix database to look at all dirt mile races at those venues of the past calendar year, going back to Nov. 29, 2020, creating a list of 805 races.

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Horses who last raced at a distance shorter than 1 mile won 13.2% with a $0.82 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance equal to 1 mile won 14.5% with a $0.76 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance longer than 1 mile won 12.5% with a $0.65 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.

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Horses who last raced at a distance shorter than 1 mile accounted for 36% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance equal to 1 mile accounted for 42% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance longer than 1 mile accounted for 21% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.

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Overall Findings:

Horses who last raced at a mile won the most 1-turn mile races and also had the highest win percentage among individual starters. Those who ran shorter than a mile last out were second-best in both surveys. Those who raced farther than 1 mile last time had the lowest win rate, ROI and percentage of victories.

Bottom line:

No doubt the numbers suggest it’s better to add distance than cut back when it comes to 1-turn dirt miles, but it’s even better to be a mile specialist and coming back at the same trip. The viewpoint that 1-turn miles are more about speed than stamina is validated by the numbers.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, evaluate each of these distance situations at each of the venues that offer 1-turn miles and see how it applies locally.