All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup First Look

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Betmix Angler was introduced over the summer and has lived up the hype. It’s an extremely powerful handicapping tool, but one that does require a bit of trial and error to yielded consistent results. We’re kicking off a new blog series called Sharp Angles that will put the focus on some winning angles we’ve discovered by using Angler. By highlighting profitable angles, and the methodology behind them, we hope to advance the overall Angler understanding so that Betmix users can more effectively apply this important tool to their own handicapping challenges.

In three weeks time, the purple and gold Breeders Cup colors will adorn Santa Anita for the fourth time this decade. Two Breeders’ Cup contests, the Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile, are uniquely configured at the SoCal track so we’ve put those races in the Sharp Angles spotlight first.

turf-sprintBreeders' Cup Turf Sprint - 6.5 furlongs on the hillside turf course
Races Analyzed: 25 Graded Stakes races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Finish Position Rank
Factor Stats: Has won 11 of the 25 races (44%) for $106.80 Win ROI

This sample includes a $20-plus winner in each of the past three years - 2014 Las Cienegas Stakes heroine Tribal Spy, 2015 San Simeon Stakes winner Get Happy Mister ($27.20) and Holy Lute ($23.40) winner of a division of the Eddie D. Stakes on the opening day card of this year's fall meeting. Sharp form recent form does appear to be key in these ‘down the hill’ Graded events. We find that Speed Last Race has also been predictive, having been the winning factor in 9 of the 25 races (36%) and showing a $79 Win ROI.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - 8 furlongs on the main track (around two turns)
Races Analyzed: 6 Grade 1 races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: Has won all 6 races (100%) for $25.6 Win ROI

This is obviously a small sample size and a relatively small ROI but it’s hard to argue with perfection. A look at some additional data also suggests this angle is on very solid ground. First of all, opening up the search to all Graded races at the mile distance would increase the sample by two more races and yield two more winners. Second, it does appear that ‘home track advantage’ is a strong indicator in this race type as Average Earnings Today’s Track (66%/$11 ROI) and Trainer Current Meet (66%/$12 ROI) are the next two winningest factors.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Angler Tips & Tricks

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Some helpful new features have been added to Angler, and we have a new video that walks you through a few ways that you can use Angler to your advantage.

1. You can now click one button to see if any horses running today match any of your saved Angles, and print out the report.

2. Your Angles are now saved with their stats so you can sort through Win%, Win ROI etc.

Angler Tips & Tricks video

Learn how to use Angler to evaluate single horses in any race.

Learn how to create an Angle for a specific race type.

Learn how to create an Angle based on any condition or advantage...

Betmix Angler is Here!

Handicapping Blog, , , ,
To win consistently betting on horses you have to have an edge. Angler will give you the edge you need and so much more...

If you are serious about handicapping horses you need to know when a horse is a good bet, or a bad one. What types of races you should play and when to skip them. When a favorite is the right play and when to go against the chalk.

If you can describe the race or the horse, Angler can give you the percentages.

Q: How often do first time starters win MdSpWt races on the turf at Saratoga?
A: About 10% of the time.

Q: How often do horses in 6F dirt claiming races who are in poat #1, & have the best early pace & best speed last race win?
A: About 34% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more?
A: About 11% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently?
A: About 14% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently, and have the top trainer & jockey at the meet?
A: About 35% of the time.

Find your profitable angles, save them and then look for them in today's or future races. Put your money in action when you know the odds and percentages are in your favor...

Angler is available to Betmix monthly or yearly subscribers, to learn more about Angler and how to use it please watch this video, or take a look at the help page.

Angler Odds vs. Performance Analysis

Handicapping Blog, , , ,

We've added some very informative new stats to Angler Analysis in BirdDog.

These new stats are all about letting you know how often horses, trainers, jockeys, etc. do what they are supposed to do. You need to know if the horse you are betting on has a history of doing what its supposed to do or not. When a horse does (or doesn't do) what is expected that can be good, bad or ugly.

If you bet a favorite to win or use it in your trifecta and it runs 5th that is a real ugly outcome.

However, if you bet against that favorite and it runs off the board that is a real good thing. The new stats described below will help you determine if your horse has a history of doing what you need it to do today.  Sometimes you want them to win, other times you want them to lose... What's good for me can be bad for you - it all depends on the bets we made.

To make money consistently you need to make value bets - bet on horses that have a better chance to win than the public thinks. That means finding horses, trainers, owners, jockeys, etc. that overperform and not betting on those that are likely to underperform.

The Angler Analysis tool gives you a lot of information about the horses, trainers, jockeys, sires, etc. in a race.

Below is a description of each of the columns and what they mean, the 4 new columns (11,12,13,14) are VERY informative.
  1. RACES - The number of races for the horse, trainer, etc. used in the sample.
  2. WIN $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to win in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  3. Place $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to place in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  4. Show $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to show in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  5. WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) win the race.
  6. Place % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) run at least second.
  7. WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) ruin at least 3rd.
  8. The average finish position.
  9. The average off odds.
  10. The average odds for the horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) when they win
 

The new data appears in columns 11,12,13 & 14. This info will give you a good indication of how often the horse (or trainer, jockey, owner, etc) does what it is supposed to do. This information is based on Angler data that looks at the "off odds" for each horse and how those odds are ranked.

In every race the horse that has the lowest odds is the favorite and that horse is ranked 1st in off odds. The longest shot in the race is ranked last.  A horse that goes off as the 1:9 favorite in a race is ranked 1st in off odds, a horse that goes off as the 2:1 favorite in another race is also ranked 1st in off odds. The actual odds don't matter here, just the rank - lowest odds are ranked 1st, horses with highest odds are ranked last.

In a perfect world the horse that is ranked 1st (lowest odds) should run 1st, and a horse that is ranked 4th (4th choice in odds) should run 4th. We all know that rarely happens, and these stats are designed to help you profit from that.

11 - HTB as Favorite.
Does the horse hit the board when its supposed to? If the horse is ranked 1, 2 or 3 in off odds (one of the top 3 betting choices) it should run 1st, 2nd or 3rd.  Looking at all of the races in the sample this shows you what % of the time the horse performs well when expected to.

12 - HTB not Favorite. Does the horse hit the board when its NOT supposed to? If the horse is ranked 4th or worse in off odds (not one of the top 3 betting choices) and it ends up running 1, 2 or 3 then it is running better than expected. Horses, trainers, jockeys, etc that have a high number in this column are potential longshots.  They have been underestimated in the past by the betting public and have hit the board when they were not expected to.
13 - OTB as Favorite. Shows you when the horse does NOT hit the board when its supposed to. If the horse is ranked among the top 3 betting choices and FAILS to run 1st, 2nd or 3rd you will see that percentage in this column. If a horse has a very high percentage in this column it is a "money burner".
14 - OTB. This shows you how often the horse does not hit the board and was not expected to hit the board (kind of a sad statistic). The horse is not expected to do well and it doesn't. If a horse has a big number here it lets you know that the horse is usually not a favorite and runs poorly.
This is a fantastic tool for spotting potential overlays and underlays, and also will help you decide when to pull the trigger on a potential longshot (horse often hits the board when its not expected to) or toss a vulnerable favorite (horse has shown that it will fail to HTB when it should).

This information is available in each table in Angler Analysis and really helps you to see which horses, jockeys, owners, trainers can do well when they should - and more importantly - do well when they are not supposed to.

Give Angler Analysis a try now: BirdDog Free Race

The full version of Angler should be ready early next week (knock on wood). If you are currently a subscriber to Betmix (monthly or yearly) then you will have access to Angler and Angler Analysis as part of your current subscription.

Starting August 1st, Angler and Angler Analysis will be part of the Betmix Pro subscription plan and will be offered at a higher subscription rate, so if you are currently not subscribed you might want to jump in now...

Betmix Angler

Handicapping Blog, , ,

We've been hard at work on a fantastic new tool called "Angler".

An angle is simply a trend that has occurred in the past with enough frequency to be profitable that you use as a guide to find bets in the future. More on angles and Angler later....

Our Angler interface is not quite ready yet, but we have started mining that data, and have made some really neat stuff available to you in Bird Dog.
Click on the options tab in BirdDog:

Then put a check by "Angler Analysis"

When you add that widget to BirdDog you can grab a massive amount of data about the horses, trainers, jockeys, owners, sires, post positions and odds for the race you are looking at.

This table shows you information about what each horse in the race has done over the last 2 years.

Take a look at the first horse, #1 Favorite Coach.

He is in post #1, and has run 19 races over the last 2 years.

If you would have bet $2 to win on Favorite Coach in every one of his races you would have made a profit of $27.40.  He is a profitable horse for a bettor. If you would have bet $2 win on #6 Fleet Gold Digger in each of his 23 races you would have lost $39.60 - not a profitable horse.  Does this matter?  Are certain horses better spotted by their connections?  Does a profitable horse mean that it wins at big odds?  Are certain horses always over bet and never win?

If you spend a little time looking at the info in this table you can learn quite a bit.

Favorite Coach wins 21% of the time, runs at least 2nd 53% of the time and hits the board 68% of the time.  His average finish position is 2.95, his average odds are about 8:1 and when he wins he going off at about 7:1.

Angler Analysis will show you similar data for Trainers, Jockeys, Owners, Sires, Post, Off Odds, etc.

People are very familiar with Trainer and Jockey stats, but we are going to show you owner stats too. Do certain owners win more often than others?  Why is that? Is it just because they have a few good horses or is it because they manage their stables better?  Are they more involved with placing their horses in the right spots and hold their trainers more accountable for results?
Do you want to bet on a horse owned by someone who is a proven winner, or do you want to take your chances betting on a horse owned by someone who never seems to find the winner's circle?
So many questions...

If you want to win consistently betting on horses you need to be very curious. You should always be wondering why something happened and know what kind of chances you have with a particular horse.

BetMix Angler (Coming Soon!) will allow you to ask virtually any question you can think of and get an answer.  When you find a profitable "angle" you can save it and then find those situations when they occur in the future.

We have been working on Angler since early this year and we believe it will be the most valuable handicapping tool you will ever use.

ANGLER will be part of BETMIX PRO, a new subscription level that will be priced higher than our normal subscription rate.

But - if you are currently a subscriber to Betmix you will not be charged more to access Angler or to use the Angler Analysis widget in BirdDog.  As long as you are a subscriber in good standing you will get all of the benefits of Angler at your current subscription level.

Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day

 

All new subscriptions through the month of July will also be upgraded to Betmix Pro, so if you are interested in what Angler can do and like what you see when you use the Angler Analysis widget then please become a monthly or yearly subscriber prior to August 1st so that you do not have to pay the higher rate for BetMix Pro.

Learn more about Angler Analysis and ANGLER in this video:

Betmix Tip – Handicapping Journal

Handicapping Blog

In addition to all of the horse specific handicapping data we compile at Betmix, we maintain data about each race track. You can find some of that information in the Handicapping Journal, and more detailed stats about each racetrack and race type on any individual race page.

The handicapping journal shows you very helpful information about longshots, exactas, trifectas and superfectas from the previous day as well as statistics about trainers, jockeys and sires. You can also find information about how often favorites are winning at each track and by race type. The Handicapping Journal is available for free everyday.

 

image001

image002(1)

For specific stats about a race type, such as today's free race, click on the TRACK REPORT button.

image003

 

Betmix Tip – Handicapping Overview

Handicapping Blog, , ,

There are many great tools in Betmix to help you handicap. Creating a mix (a group of factors and weights) that are specific to a race type is always going to be the best approach. Some people may find that process a bit confusing at first, so to help new users get out of the gate quickly with Betmix we have a very simple and visual tool called Handicapping Overview. You can use this great guide in any race in Betmix using the BirdDog interface.

The Handicapping Overview will display the rankings of each horse in the race based on 19 different handicapping models. At the bottom of the chart all of those rankings are rolled up into a consensus with point totals.

image001

Top 10 – Uses a weighted blend of the 10 most important factors for the race type

Win% – Uses a weighted blend of the factors with the best win percentages

Hit The Board – Uses factors that predict high percentage of horses that ran 1, 2 or 3

Blend – Uses a mix of factors from each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, etc.)

Longshot – Uses a mix based on factors with high win ROI numbers.

Overall Rankings – Uses the ideal setting from Overall Rankings. This is based on the setting that predicted the most exactas within the top 4 ranked horses of the sample of similar races.

FACTOR GROUPS

These rankings will give you an idea of how the horses rank within each category using a weighted mix of the factors within that group. Factors that are more highly ranked within the group will be given more weight. You can click on the buttons the represent each factor to see the mix used. To the left of each Factor Group button you will see a “Signal Strength” icon that indicates how strong the factor group is in relation to the other groups. Four Green Bars in the icon is the best and means that the factors within that group are most important for the race type you are handicapping.

SCORE & BIRDDOG

The “Score” rankings are based on ranking the horses using the default factors in the main horse table:

Last Finish Position, Lengths Beaten, Speed Last Race and Class Difference. The score rankings are computed by looking at each horse's rank within each of those factors and they give you a solid look at horses most qualified to compete in today's race.

The “BirdDog” rankings use the top 10 factors from the BirdDog table. This table looks at a large number of similar races with the same amount of starters as the race you are handicapping. If you are handicapping a 6f dirt claiming race with 8 starters, the BirdDog stats will be based on a large group of races that were 6f dirt with exactly 8 starters. The BirdDog table lets you see how often a horse wins when ranked at a certain position. The BirdDog ranks takes the 10 best factors for the race type and computes a score from that.

MixBot

The MixBot performs a few tasks for you very quickly. It searches the database for the most recent similar race (Track, distance, surface, class) and then runs MixMaker to find out how that race was optimally handicapped. It will then apply that mix to the race you are currently handicapping. It will then repeat the process for the most recent similar race won by a favorite, medium priced horse and most recent similar race won by a longshot. The results of these mixes will provide you with a very accurate way of looking at today's race.

COMBINED RANKINGS

The combined results of all of the rankings (Quick Handicapping, Factor Groups, Score & BirdDog)

Factoring Pedigree – 2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders

Handicapping Blog, , , , , , ,

Pedigree is perhaps the most important factor in analyzing a horse's ability to navigate the testing 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. Here are pedigree snapshots of this year's Belmont contenders:

Exaggerator
Sire: Curlin (Progeny average winning distance (AWD): 7.59 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree*: Curlin, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
Like his sire, Exaggerator is a Preakness Stakes winner who is competing in all three Triple Crown races. Curlin finished a close second to the A. P. Indy filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes and is the sire of 2012 Belmont winner Palace Malice. Exaggerator is out of a mare by Vindication, a grandson of American Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of a great-granddaughter of English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky II.

Destin
Sire: Giant's Causeway (Progeny AWD: 8.74 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Bold Ruler
Giant's Causeway has the longest progeny average winning distance of any sire in this year's Belmont Stakes field. No surprise there as many Giant's Causeway's face the starter in Europe where distance racing is still prevalent (and relevant). Destin's dam was a 9-furlong Grade 1 winner and is by a 10-furlong Grade 1 winner Siberian Summer. Her dam is by Breeders' Cup Classic champ Skywalker. Destin is a full brother to Creative Cause, who finished 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness.

Suddenbreakingnews
Sire: Mineshaft (Progeny AWD:7.34 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Afleet Alex
His late-running style suggests he'll run to the moon and back and so does his pedigree. He's by Mineshaft, a son of Belmont winner A. P. Indy who was twice a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs in his Horse of the Year season. Suddenbreakingnews' dam, Uchitel, was winless in three starts but is daughter of Afleet Alex, the last runner to complete the Preakness/Belmont double.

Creator
Sire: Tapit (Progeny AWD: 7.50 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Damascus, Summing, Northern Dancer (x2)
“You get a lot of comfort from his pedigree and how much stay is in his pedigree.” That quote comes from trainer Steve Asmussen. Aside from being a son of the A. P. Indy grandson Tapit, his dam is the tough mare Morena, a 12-furlong Group 1 winner in her native Peru before placing in five U. S. graded races. Morena is a granddaughter of distance influence Private Account, a son of Preakness winner Damascus. Her dam is by Belmont winner Summing.

Click here to watch Belmont Stakes contender race replays on the Betmix YouTube channel

Stradivari
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro (Progeny AWD: 7.63 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Damascus, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
As a son of El Prado and grandson of the great European stallion Sadler's Wells, Medgalia d'Oro sires runners more than capable at Classic distances. This is evidenced by his progeny's average winning distance, a healthy 7.63. Stradivari's dam, however, was a straight one-turn runner and you have to back to the fourth generation of her pedigree to find any distance/Classic influences.

Brody's Cause
Sire: Giant's Causeway (Progeny AWD: 8.74 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince
Like Destin, Brody's Cause is a son of Giant's Causeway. The female side of his pedigree shows a nice blend of speed and stamina. His dam, Sweet Breana, placed in two of the three Canadian Filly Triple Crown races. She's bred on the Mr. Prospector/Roberto cross, Roberto being an Epsom Darby winner and top North American distance influence. Her pedigree also shows Sadler's Wells and Majestic Prince, who fell just short of the 1969 Triple Crown with a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes.

Cherry Wine
Sire: Paddy O'Prado (Progeny AWD: 7.45 furlongs, one crop/35 winners)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Unbridled, Northern Dancer
Cherry Wine is from the first crop of Paddy O'Prado who, like Medaglia d'Oro, is a son of El Prado and grandson of Sadler's Wells. Paddy O'Prado ran third in Super Saver's Kentucky Derby before going on to become a 10-furlong Grade 1 winner on the turf. His dam, C. S. Royce, won her only two races on the grass and it's a good bet that Cherry Wine will ultimately find the most success on the lawn. C. S. Rouce is a granddaughter of 1990 Kentucky Derby hero Unbridled, but her pedigree is otherwise stacked with speed influences.

Lani
Sire: Tapit (Progeny AWD: 7.50 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Unbridled, Sunday Silence, Northern Dancer (x2)
Tapit is the sire of 2013 Belmont winner Tonalist and Lani shows a trio of Kentucky Derby winners in his pedigree to go with three Belmont winners. If the quirky colt fails in the Belmont Stakes it won't be because of his pedigree.

Governor Malibu
Sire: Malibu Moon (Progeny AWD: 7.09 furlongs)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Easy Goer, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer
For a son of A. P. Indy, Malibu Moon's progeny average winning distance of 7.09 is a little light. He is, however, the sire of 2012 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, who finished 3rd in the Belmont. Governor Malibu is out of a daughter of the Danzig stallion Langhfuhr, both speed influences, but his third dam is by 1989 Belmont winner Easy Goer.

Gettysburg
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile (Progeny AWD: 7.47 furlongs)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Empire Maker, Unbridled, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Conquistador Cielo
Gettysburg is a late addition to the Belmont Stakes to help ensure a reasonable pace. He is owned by WinStar Farm who have major interests in a pair of late-running Belmont contenders. Creator is owned by WinStar and Exaggerator will reside in the WinStar stallion barn upon retirement. Just a staked-placed runner, Gettysburg may be a cut below on form but his pedigree is well-suited to the race as there are five Belmont winners, two Derby winners & a Preakness champ in the first five generations of his pedigree. Oh and he's also a son of Pioneerof the Nile, sire of a certain 2015 Triple Crown winner.

Wild About Deb
Sire: Eskendereya (Progeny AWD: NA/in South Korea)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer (x2)
The Peter Pan Stakes 3rd-place finisher is by Florida Derby (G1) winner Eskendereya, a son of Giant's Causeway. Eskendereya couldn't quite get over the hump as a sire and was exported to South Korea. His dam, Smarty Deb, was a multiple stakes winner at Emerald Downs. She's a daughter of Smart Strike (sire of Curlin, etc.) and her second dam is by the first Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Wild Again.

Trojan Nation
Sire: Street Cry (Progeny AWD: NA/deceased)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Summer Squall, Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer (x2)
"We think the horse has talent and he's bred to go the distance" - co-owner Aaron Sones. While Trojan Nation's talent could be called into question (he's never won a race) the assertion that he's bred for a Classic distance cannot. He's a son of Street Cry, sire of the likes of Zenyatta and Derby winner Street Sense. His dam, Storm Song, was named champion at two after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She's a daughter of 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall, a half-brother to A. P. Indy.

Forever d'Oro
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro (Progeny AWD: 7.63 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Lemon Drop Kid, Damascus, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
With just a nose Maiden victory on the ledger Forever d'Oro will be one of the longest shots in the 2016 Belmont. He's a son of distance influence Medaglia d'Oro out of Kentucky Oaks winner Lemons Forever, a daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes champ Lemon Drop Kid. Lemons Forever has been a fantastic producer for breeder Charles Fipke. She's the dam of a pair of Grade 1 winners from her first four foals, Unbridled Forever (the 7-furlong Ballerina Stakes) and Forever Unbridled (the 9-furlong Apple Blossom Stakes).

Seeking the Soul
Sire: Perfect Soul (Progeny AWD: 7.58 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Monarchos, Damascus, Bold Ruler
Like Forever d'Oro, Seeking the Soul is a Charles Fipke homebred trained by Dallas Stewart. This team ran 2nd in last year's Preakness at 28-1 with Tale of Verve, a son of the Fipke-owned stallion Tale of Ekati. They also teamed up with Golden Soul, a son of Perfect Soul, to run 2nd in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Perfect Soul is a son of Sadler's Wells out of a daughter of Secretariat. His biggest wins on the track were middle-distance turf events and he's yet to hit it big at stud. Mr. Fipke is no doubt encouraged by his recent Classic successes and is seeking to further bolster his breeding program by putting Forever d'Oro and Seeking the Soul in the Belmont Stakes crosshairs.

*five generation pedigree

Stay tuned for new Betmix pedigree research features that will allow subscribers to quickly analyze a sire's tendencies!

 

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Collected

Handicapping Blog, , , , ,

The 2016 Preakness Stakes field is comprised of 11 runners, three of whom are multiple graded stakes winners in North America. Handicappers can quickly guess that Nyquist and Exaggerator are two of three. But the third? That's the Bob Baffert-trained Collected.

The City Zip colt captured the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita back on January 9 (with fellow Preakness contender Laoban in third) and the April 16 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Sandwiched in between are a fourth place run as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and an easy wire-to-wire victory in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes.

In the Lexington (watch below), Collected broke from post 10 and pressed the pace set by 40-1 shot One More Round. The colt settled nicely under Javier Castellano and that's something he's improved on in all of his races. He's a developed into a speed horse who can be rated.

Watch the Sham Stakes & all Preakness contender replays on the Betmix YouTube channel

“The Preakness has been the plan since the Lexington,” said Baffert. “He’s a fast little horse with a lot of speed, and we figure he deserves a shot, especially with the shorter (than the Derby) distance. We’ll have fun. We have a nice, fast horse who tries hard.”

Betmix subscribers can check out the new PaceCast feature in BirdDog to see how Collected's presence will affect the early pace in the Preakness.

Bob Baffert has won the Preakness on six occasions, all with runners who had started in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish with a 'fresh horse' was with the fifth-place Senor Swinger in 2003.

Collected's sire City Zip has emerged as one of the more consistent stallions in North America. He's actually the top sire of Breeders' Cup winners over the past two years with three champions - Catch a Glimpse (2015 Juvenile Fillies Turf), Work All Week (2014 Sprint), Dayatthespa (2014 F&M Turf). However, the 10-furlong winner Dayatthespa is an outlier for City Zip, not surprising for a son of Carson City who was the last colt to capture all three of the juvenile sprint stakes at Saratoga.

Collected certainly has the speed and class to be a factor at Old Hilltop and bettors can expect the colt to part of the picture for at least the first mile. And should the favorites stub their toes, Collected could well find himself in a perfect spot to collect a whole bunch of black-eyed susans.

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Stradivari

Handicapping Blog

There will be several 'new shooters' to greet Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist in the Preakness starting gate on May 21. Of those, Stradivari is the lightest on experience but just might be the most intriguing upset possibility.

(Watch 2016 Preakness contender race videos on the Betmix YouTube channel)

The Todd Pletcher-trainee has but three races under his girth - a 4th-place run in an Aqueduct Maiden Special last November followed by pair of scintillating performances in Maiden Special and Allowance company by a combined 25 3/4 lengths.

In early December he dominated a mile and one sixteenth Maiden Special at Gulfstream Park by 11 1/4 lengths (watch below), pressing the early fractions before drawing off. It was a similar story on April 17 at Keenelenad where the final margin was an effortless 14 1/2 lengths in a nine-furlong Allowance. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, only three points off the top Beyers posted so far by Nyquist and Exaggerator (for what it's worth).

Keeneland track announcer Kurt Becker called the race this way:

"Stradivari is under no stress under Johnny V. at the top of the stretch and just keeps widening the margin here."

(Watch Stradivari's Keeneland Allowance win)

Stradivari is by the great stallion Medaglia d'Oro (sire of Rachel Alexandra, Songbird, etc.) out of the multiple graded stakes winner Bending Strings. While the Medaglia d'Oro's can excel at Classic distances (he's a grandson of Sadler's Wells), Bending Strings made all of her serious blacktype cash in one turn events.

Interestingly, Stradivari has never been favored in any of his races thus far and his sporadic racing schedule may have something to do with that. He certainly won't be favored in the Preakness either but he'll likely be part of the early pace at Pimlico, something certainly welcomed by closers like Exaggerator.

Betmix subscribers should be sure to check out the new Betmix PaceCast feature once Preakness entries are drawn to get a good idea of the probable pace scenario. Click here to find out more about PaceCast.

At least for now, Stradivari isn't among those already vanquished by Nyquist and he should have every opportunity to show if he's good enough to put his name on the famed Woodlawn Vase on May 21.