December 12, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Longshots are more likely to run second.

Background:

You’ll hear a lot of handicappers talk about back-wheeling a longshot in the exacta because said price horse is more likely to finish second than win. Is that true by the numbers or a defensive approach that lacks confidence in the selection because the public may disagree?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at its max sample size of 10,000 runners to see how horses 10-1 or more perform in terms of results. I then looked at the last 10,000 favorites and last 10,000 horses 5-1 in odds to see if the results were proportional.

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Longshots: 3% win, 6% finish second, 9% finish third, 81% finish out of the money

Favorites: 38% win, 21% finish second, 23% finish third, 27% finish out of the money

5-1 Shots: 15% win, 16% finish second, 17% finish third, 52% finish out of the money

Bottom line:

Longshots 10-1 or more, in fact, finish second twice as often as win by a 6% to 3% ratio. That’s in stark contrast to favorites, who win far more often than finish second (by a 17-point margin). Mid-range horses at 5-1 finish across the board first, second or third in about the same margins, give or take a point. The numbers suggest that putting a longshot second is a sound strategy. The $1 ROI for betting the 10-1 plus runners is $.73 to win and $.69 to place, so even though they click more often second, betting them to place is not a fruitful exchange. Second in the exacta makes more financial sense.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run this assumption at your favorite or local track to see how it shakes out.

Bear Fan S. at Golden Gate
6F on All Weather (December 10)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 52 6-furlong main track at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 57 contenders, 16 winners (28%, $114.40 Win Return, 200 ROI%), 20 Place (35%), 32 Show (56%)

A field of 11 filly and mare sprinters are set to face the starter in the Bear Fan Stakes, the Saturday feature at Golden Gate Fields.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor has not only pointed to 28% winners of this racetype but to an astounding $114 Win Return.

What´s even more compelling is that it´s not just one longshot winner that produced that juicy Win Return, but actually 5 double digit winners, including 3 that paid over $40!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 5, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption: 

First-time starters at season’s end aren’t as strong as those debuting earlier in the year.

Background: 

As we hit the final 4 weeks of 2022, horseplayers will be posed with debut runners around the country that are late to the party. Most often injuries before the first start are the culprit, so what chances do we give these runners at first asking?

Data Points: 

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters since the start of 2019, by the month of their debut, measuring win percentage and return on investment per every $1 bet.

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January first-time starters win 9.0% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.

February first-time starters win 9.6% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

March first-time starters win 9.1% with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.

April first-time starters win 10.0% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

May first-time starters win 11.4% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

June first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

July first-time starters win 10.2% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.

August first-time starters win 9.6% with a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.

September first-time starters win 9.5% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.

October first-time starters win 8.8% with a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

November first-time starters win 8.6% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.

December first-time starters win 8.8% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line: 

April through July, first-time starters win at the highest percentages, and that goes with the conventional thought of when the best horses typically debut. But the public understands that and perhaps those rookies of repute are easier to identify those months given the lowest ROIs of the year. Notice the uptick in ROI in November-Febuary, and you’ll see betting firsters this time of year can be more fruitful.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run these same queries but include your favorite track. Or sort by trainers to see which trainers debut with the most success by month to identify patterns.

Hollywood Derby (G1)
9F on Turf (December 3, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 50 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 57 contenders, 16 winners (28%, $32.00 Win Return, 128 ROI%), 23 Place 40%,) 30 Show (52%)

A deep and competitive field of sophomore turfers go for Grade 1 gold in Saturday´s Hollywood Derby at Del Mar.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to hone in on the important handicapping factors for any racetype. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Jockey Current Meet factor has been very useful in the 9-furlong turf stakes at the seaside oval.

Over a quarter of the contenders ranking first in this factor have crossed the wire first while generating a sterling $32 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet  slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption: 

The return to turf racing on Thursday at Gulfstream Park will provide an instant boost to payoffs. 

Background: 

A new turf course will be unveiled this week at Gulfstream Park as grass racing returns to the South Florida oval for the first time in more than five months. What can horseplayers expect in terms of returns?

Data Points: 

I fired up the Betmix database to look at racing this year at Gulfstream Park in terms of turf and non-turf (dirt/synthetic) races. I surveyed the average win payoff for all races on the comparable surfaces and then normalized for field size. I also wanted to see the impact of surface/payouts based on the class of the races.

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In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.3-1 on average.

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In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 5.6-1 on average.
In normalized fields of 10 so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 6.2-1 on average.

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In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In maiden fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.8-1 on average.

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In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.9-1 on average. 
In claiming fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 5.5-1 on average.

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In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 4.6-1 on average. 
In allowance fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.9-1 on average.

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In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream dirt/synthetic winners were 2.8-1 on average. 
In stakes fields of any size so far this year, Gulfstream turf winners were 4.3-1 on average.

Bottom line: 

At any comparative point, the turf average winning odds easily exceeded the dirt returns. The maiden turf races will be particularly fruitful based on the numbers and a welcome return for bettors. The assumption that prices are about to increase with the return to turf is confirmed.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see how the same numbers may match up at your or favorite track besides Gulfstream.

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Richard W. Small S. at Laurel
9F on Dirt (November 26, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 50 9-furlong (non graded) dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´s Track
Factor Stats: 53 contenders, 21 winners (39%, $16.30 Win Return, 115 ROI%), 28 Place (52%,) 34 Show (64%)

The Richard W. Small Stakes, the Saturday co-feature at Laurel, honors the late, great Midlantic trainer (Broad Brush, etc.) and has drawn a competitive field of older runners.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to look for successful handicapping factors for any racetypes. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Avg. Earnings Today´s Track factor has been very predictive in the 9-furlong non -graded stakes on the Laurel main track.

hard W. Small S. at Laurel
9F on Dirt (November 26, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 50 9-furlong (non graded) dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´s Track
Factor Stats: 53 contenders, 21 winners (39%, $16.30 Win Return, 115 ROI%), 28 Place (52%,) 34 Show (64%)

The Richard W. Small Stakes, the Saturday co-feature at Laurel, honors the late, great Midlantic trainer (Broad Brush, etc.) and has drawn a competitive field of older runners.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to look for successful handicapping factors for any racetypes. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Avg. Earnings Today´s Track factor has been very predictive in the 9-furlong non -graded stakes on the Laurel main track.

A tick under 40% of the contenders have crossed the wire first while generating a $16.30 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Chilukki S. at Churchill Downs
8F on Dirt (November 19)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 32 8-furlong dirt stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey Win % Meet
Factor Stats: 22 contenders, 5 winners (22%, $78.60 Win Return, 278 ROI%), 7 Place (31%, $27.80 Place Return), 9 Show (40%, $18.94 Show Return)

A field of 7 distaffers are set to face the starter in the Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs, the only Saturday graded stakes in North America.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that the Trainer/Jockey Win % Meet handicapping factor has not only pointed to 22% winners of this racetype but to some very juicy across the board returns.

The five winners, including 2015 Chilukki heroine Spelling Again ($8.60), have generated a whopping $78.60 Win Return along with double-digit Place and Show returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer/Jockey Win % Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Betmix Fusion - a quick and easy way to handicap!

• Real time Win %, ROI and Value stats for over 60 handicapping factors
• Quickly see which factors matter for the race you are betting and which factors are providing value
• Use all factors or create your own set of custom factors, ranks and levels
• Apply your saved factor settings with the click of a button
• Watch, wager and handicap all on one screen

BETMIX FUSION combines some of the best features of BirdDog, Angler and Toteboarding to give you a quick and accurate way to handicap races. We look into our Angler database and find a set of similar races (track, distance, surface, class, # of starters), and show you which factors and ranks within those factors have been the most predictive.

IS THE FAVORITE BEING OVER BET?

IS THERE ANY VALUE IN BETTING THIS LONGSHOT?

Answer those questions and see at a glance why you should bet on a particular horse and where you are getting the best value for your money.

You can watch, wager and handicap on the races all from one screen.

Sign up for a Free Fusion Tutorial on the Fusion handicapping screen.

Golden Nugget S. at Golden Gate
6F on All Weather (November 12)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 49 6-furlong main track at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 54 contenders, 16 winners (29%, $120.40 Win Return, 211 ROI%), 29 Place (35%), 31 Show (57%)

A field of 7 juveniles are set to face the starter in the Golden Nugget Stakes, the Saturday feature at Golden Gate Fields

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor has not only pointed to 29% winners of this racetype but to an astounding $120 Win Return.

What's even more compelling is that it's not just one long shot winner that produced that juicy Win Return, but actually 5 double digit winners, including 3 that paid over $40!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Nov. 4) & Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (Nov. 5) at Keeneland
5.5F on Turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 5.5-furlong graded turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 36 contenders, 10 winners (27%, $40.94 Win Return, 156 ROI%), 16 Place (44%, $12.22 Place Return), 22 Show (61%, $4.20 Show Return)

Here we go! The Breeders´ Cup returns to Keeneland this weekend with typically deep and compelling fields.

The two turf sprints are especially interesting for different reasons. Who will prove best in the overloaded Juvenile Turf Sprint on Friday? Who, if anyone, can beat defending champ Golden Pal in the Turf Sprint on Saturday?

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database is designed to parse the narratives with powerful data and Angler reveals that the Avg. Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has been lucrative in the 5.5-furlong graded stakes on the Keeneland lawn.

Just over 27% of the contenders have crossed the wire first, while generating a healthy $40.94 Win Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix