Bear Fan S. at Golden Gate Fields
6F on All Weather (December 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 46 6-furlong main track stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 15 winners (30%) $82.60 Win Return, (184 ROI%), 18 Place (36%), 30 Show (61%).

A baker´´´ s dozen will line up in Saturday´´ s featured Bear Fan Stakes at Golden Gate. It´ s not a stretch to say that 13-horses fields are inherently challenging for handicappers. Luckily, the Betmix Angler online handicapping database is here to help.

Angler tells us that Average of Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor in the 6-furlong main track stakes at the Northern California oval. Horses ranking first in this factor have scored 30% of the time while generating a whopping Win Return of $82.60.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

December 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Early speed horses are successful when shortening distances.

Background:

Horseplayers who see a lot of 1s in the past performance lines in the early part of the race often are attracted to horses who are attempting to run a shorter distance this time. The speed theoretically can carry without the need for as much distance stamina.

Data Points:

I looked at all races in 2021 through December 5 and analyzed horses who had made the lead in their most recent start and were running a shorter distance in the return bid. The comparison was for horses at sprint distances at 5-1/2, 6, 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 17.3% with a $0.74 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 13.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 15.3% with a $0.75 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 12.8% with a $0.76 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 16.2% with a $0.82 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 12.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

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Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.3% with a $0.66 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.0% with a $0.76 ROI.

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Overall Findings:

At each of the common sprint distances, horses who made the lead last time out were more likely to win when shortening their distance than those shortening distance after not making the lead. The spread is greatest at 5-1/2 furlongs, where last-out leaders won 4.2% more often than those trimming the trip exiting races when they didn’t make the lead. That margin closed closest at 7 furlongs, where last-out front-runners barely held a .3% edge when on the cut-back.

Bottom line:

When you look at a 12.4% win rate for all horses in races at 7 furlongs or less, you see that horses who made the lead last time and cut back in distance win at a higher rate at each of these distances than the general likelihood of winners. They also win at a stronger rate than fellow cut-back distance runners who weren’t capable of making the front last time. Overall, you’d have to surmise by these numbers that it’s a solid angle that holds water.
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, decipher which tracks are most likely to excel with these kind of cut-back speed horses.

Cigar Mile at Aqueduct
8F on Dirt (December 4)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 35 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 38 contenders, 8 winners (21%) $83.40 Win Return, (209 ROI%), 10 Place (26%), 16 Show (42%) Show Return.

Saturday´ s Cigar Mile marks the last Grade 1 event on the 2021 NYRA calendar and handicappers are faced with a stern challenge.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some additional perspective and uncovered a very interesting approach. Angler tells us that the horse ranking first in the Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type handicapping factor has won 21% of the 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct.

While the Win % is a little lower than we typically promote, the $83.40 Win Return makes this Angle worth trying. This factor has also pointed to a pair of recent Cigar Mile champs - Connect ($5.00) and Tonalist ($6.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 2-Year Win % This Race Type slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

One-turn miles are more about speed than stamina.

Background:

Saturday’s Cigar Mile at Aqueduct is one of the calendar’s premier races at the 1-turn mile trip on dirt. It joins races like the Met Mile at sister track Belmont on the seasonal slate of must-see races. Many handicappers believe these races play more like sprints than routes, given the 1-turn nature. We’ll put the data to the test.

Data Points:

The principal dirt tracks in the US that offer 1-turn mile races are Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill, Gulfstream and Laurel Park. I’ve dialed up the Betmix database to look at all dirt mile races at those venues of the past calendar year, going back to Nov. 29, 2020, creating a list of 805 races.

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Horses who last raced at a distance shorter than 1 mile won 13.2% with a $0.82 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance equal to 1 mile won 14.5% with a $0.76 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance longer than 1 mile won 12.5% with a $0.65 ROI in 1-turn dirt miles.

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Horses who last raced at a distance shorter than 1 mile accounted for 36% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance equal to 1 mile accounted for 42% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.
Horses who last raced at a distance longer than 1 mile accounted for 21% of victories in 1-turn dirt miles.

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Overall Findings:

Horses who last raced at a mile won the most 1-turn mile races and also had the highest win percentage among individual starters. Those who ran shorter than a mile last out were second-best in both surveys. Those who raced farther than 1 mile last time had the lowest win rate, ROI and percentage of victories.

Bottom line:

No doubt the numbers suggest it’s better to add distance than cut back when it comes to 1-turn dirt miles, but it’s even better to be a mile specialist and coming back at the same trip. The viewpoint that 1-turn miles are more about speed than stamina is validated by the numbers.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, evaluate each of these distance situations at each of the venues that offer 1-turn miles and see how it applies locally.

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries during November.

MONDAY MYTHS: DO MAIDEN CLAIMERS CAUSE CHAOS?

Maiden claiming races are the most unpredictable, and therefore are the most likely spread races in multi-race bets. Or are they?

Click here to read more

MONDAY MYTHS: ARE THE LATE-SEASON 2-YEAR-OLDS DILUTED?

Surely, the assumption, is that the best already were unveiled to aim at those prizes. But are rookies in November and December any less potent than their summer/early fall classmates?

Click here to read more

MONDAY MYTHS: IS AQUEDUCT A BETTORS’ LETDOWN?

The year-round racing schedule in New York shifts to Aqueduct on Thursday and will continue at the winter stomping grounds until next spring. Sure, it’s not the coliseum at Belmont nor the cathedral at Saratoga in terms of a physical plant. And while the racing product, too, is an obvious drop-off, the real question poised to those betting the horses here: Is the betting also a letdown?

Click here to read more

August Handicapping Myths

July Handicapping Myths

May Handicapping Myths

April Handicapping Myths

November 22, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Maiden claiming races are the most unpredictable, and therefore are the most likely spread races in multi-race bets.

Background:

Crack open the past performances, and you’re sure to see a full-field maiden claiming race at Anytrack USA. Venues are overflowing with maidens, and the lower-level runners all are looking for a place to graduate against other unsuccessful sorts. Many horseplayers frown at these races for a perceived lack of predictability that goes with their poor form and apparent lack of deserving trust. But are maiden claiming races the most likely for upset and most vulnerable?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all races run in 2021 through November 21. I specifically categorized them by race class to see which had the most trustworthy favorites, the most logical average winning price and the most likelihood for longshot winners (10-1 or more). In order to compare for field size impact, the comparisons are for identical fields of 10 runners -- a key component to this study.

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In 2021, maiden claiming races had an average winner at 5.87-1 odds.
In 2021, maiden special weight races had an average winner at 6.62-1 odds.
In 2021, claiming races had an average winner at 6.72-1 odds.
In 2021, allowance races had an average winner at 6.31-1 odds.
In 2021, stakes races had an average winner at 6.53-1 odds.

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In 2021, maiden claiming favorites won 33.6% with a $0.85 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, maiden special weight favorites won 34.7% with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, claiming favorites won 31.6% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, allowance favorites won 28.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, stakes favorites won 37.7% with a $0.93 ROI for every $1 bet.

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In 2021 maiden claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.7% win rate.
In 2021 maiden special weight races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.0% win rate.
In 2021 claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.5% win rate.
In 2021 allowance races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.2% win rate.
In 2021 stakes, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.5% win rate.

Overall Findings:

Maiden claiming races have had the lowest average odds for winners among all race classes this year when all races are adjusted for field size of 10. The gap is .44 points lower than allowance races, which is second-lowest and as much as .85 points compared to claiming races, the highest. Of the 5 classes, maiden claiming favorites fell right in the middle at third-highest in terms of win rate and ROI for betting on them. Maiden claiming races were second-least likely for longshot winners at 10-1 or more at .2 percent behind stakes races.

Bottom line:

Claiming and allowance races both are clearly less predictable overall than maiden claiming races when searching the race conditions for ‘spread’ races. Their winners pay more on average, their favorites win less often, and their longshots strike at a significantly higher rate. The assumption that maiden claiming races invite chaos is false based on this year’s numbers nationally.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does your favorite track stack up with the national average? Do these numbers shift between turf, dirt and synthetic surfaces?

Red Smith S. at Aqueduct
11F on Turf (November 18)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 16 graded turf stakes at Aqueduct, 11 furlongs or longer
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey This Year
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%) $30.70 Win Return, (176 ROI%), 10 Place (50%), $15.50 Place Return, 12Show (60%) $8.40 Show Return.

'It's a riders race' is sometimes posited by racing broadcasters, especially when a field is evenly matched. While scanning the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insight on the Red Smith Stakes, we found the big data handicapping version of this adage.

Angler tells us that the horse ranking first in the Jockey This Year handicapping factor has won 30% of the graded turf marathons at Aqueduct over the past 9 years while generating positive across-the-board returns

Four of the past six Red Smith heroes are among the sample including the last two winners Sadler's Joy ($4.70) and Village King ($11.80).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The best 2-year-olds already have debuted and won by the time November rolls around.

Background:

Post-Breeders’ Cup, there’s some natural thought among those who follow the game that the 2-year-old scene has already seen its generational best. The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, as well as $3 million worth of 2-year-old turf races already are in the rear-view mirror. Surely, the assumption, is that the best already were unveiled to aim at those prizes. But are rookies in November and December any less potent than their summer/early fall classmates?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the win rates of first-time starting 2-year-olds by month of the year.

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2021 April debut 2-year-olds won 14.3% with a $0.47 ROI.
2021 May debut 2-year-olds won 16.7% with a $0.75 ROI.
2021 June debut 2-year-olds won 12.4% with a $0.60 ROI.
2021 July debut 2-year-olds won 11.2% with a $0.80 ROI.
2021 August debut 2-year-olds won 11.1% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 September debut 2-year-olds won 10.2% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 October debut 2-year-olds won 9.3% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 November so far debut 2-year-olds have won 8.7% with a $0.69 ROI.

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Last 3 years April debut 2-year-olds won 14% with a $0.59 ROI.
Last 3 years May debut 2-year-olds won 15.1% with a $0.86 ROI.
Last 3 years June debut 2-year-olds won 12.8% with a $0.71 ROI.
Last 3 years July debut 2-year-olds won 11.2% with a $0.79 ROI.
Last 3 years August debut 2-year-olds won 10.5% with a $0.74 ROI.
Last 3 years September debut 2-year-olds won 9.8% with a $0.76 ROI.
Last 3 years October debut 2-year-olds won 9.0% with a $0.78 ROI.
Last 3 years November so far debut 2-year-olds have won 8.5% with a $0.86 ROI.
Last 3 years December debut 2-year-olds won 8.7% with a $0.87 ROI.

Overall Findings:

May is the month most likely for first-time starting 2-year-old success and the percentages drop consistently throughout the summer and fall. Whether you’re looking at the current year or the last 3-year average, the pattern remains similar. The ROI rises significantly late in the year among the 2-year-olds in the 3-year average despite the drop in win percentage.

Bottom line:

While there are more first-time starters by nature at the beginning of the season, the win rates for those are unarguably in a pattern that shows it's more and more unlikely to debut a winner as the season goes on. This perceived handicapping axiom is validated as true by the numbers, even if the occasional star is unveiled later in the year. The 3-year-range’s November-December ROI rise may indicate the public’s perception of this trend to avoid first-time starters actually creates some overlay prices. You’re less likely to find them, but when you do, they are worth the dig.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, analyze these juvenile debut stats by your favorite tracks to see how they hold up.

Artie Schiller S. at Aqueduct
8F on Turf (November 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 69 8-furlong non-graded turf stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 104 contenders, 35 winners (33%) 24.30 Win Return, (111 ROI%), 54 Place (51%), $1.70 Place Return, 70 Show (67%,

Racing has returned to Aqueduct for the long New York winter but there is still some quality turf racing confronting horseplayers at the Queens oval. Saturday's Artie Schiller Stakes is a good example.

An even dozen are slated to face the starter in the race named for the 2005 Breeders' Cup Mile winner. The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one third of the winners of the 8-furlong non-graded grass miles at The Big A have been won by the horse ranking first in the Average Speed Last 3 handicapping factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk via https://www.xpressbet.com/

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The opening of Aqueduct is a letdown for bettors of the New York circuit.

Background:

The year-round racing schedule in New York shifts to Aqueduct on Thursday and will continue at the winter stomping grounds until next spring. Sure, it’s not the coliseum at Belmont nor the cathedral at Saratoga in terms of a physical plant. And while the racing product, too, is an obvious drop-off, the real question poised to those betting the horses here: Is the betting also a letdown?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 years and looked at all results at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga to get a feel for just how similar or different the results are between the NYRA circuit locales. I wanted to see the average win odds, percentage of winning favorites and likelihood of longshots (10-1) on the racing product. The everyday racing notwithstanding, I wanted to see how stakes races also compared at these betting markers since Belmont and Saratoga are so renowned for their championship quality.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct has been 4.89-1.
The average win odds at Belmont has been 5.08-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga has been 5.00-1.

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Favorites win 35.6% at Aqueduct.
Favorites win 35.6% at Belmont.
Favorites win 34.2% at Saratoga.

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Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.3% win rate at Aqueduct.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Belmont.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Saratoga.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct in stakes races has been 5.22-1.
The average win odds at Belmont in stakes races has been 4.51-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga in stakes races has been 4.65-1.

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Stakes favorites win 36.8% at Aqueduct
Stakes favorites win 40.6% at Belmont
Stakes favorites win 38.5% at Saratoga

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Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.0% win rate at Aqueduct.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 3.7% win rate at Belmont.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.1% win rate at Saratoga.

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Overall Findings:

Aqueduct produces a slightly lower average win payout than Belmont or Saratoga, but only .11 and .19 lower per odds point, meaning 22 cents and 38 cents per $2 wager. The percentage of winning favorites at Belmont and Aqueduct is identical with Saratoga 1.4% less likely for favorites. When it comes to upsets, Aqueduct is slightly less likely to produce an upset winner by .2% compared to Belmont and Saratoga. In the stakes races, Aqueduct has produced slightly higher average payoffs and a corresponding lower rate of winning favorites.

Bottom line:

The aesthetics are different, the quality of horses different, and more dirt racing than turf, but the results the past 5 years at Aqueduct mirror what we see on the NYRA circuit at its sister tracks, Belmont and Saratoga. There’s no massive shift in results at any of these three venues. From a betting standpoint, there’s no letdown at the Big A.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, are there particular class levels at Aqueduct that are more attractive to bet than at the other NYRA venues?