Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. & The Very One S.

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Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. & The Very One S.
5F on the turf at Pimlico (May 20)
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 12 winners (80%, $57.00 flat win bet profit, 290 ROI%)

It’s Preakness weekend and that means a stakes smorgasbord at Pimlico. While the second jewel of the Triple Crown is obviously the main course, a pair of turf sprints may offer the best betting opportunities. An incredible 80% of the winners of the 5-furlong grass stakes at Old Hilltop have been won by the horse ranked first in Speed This Distance.  

And since there’s never too much of a good thing, this angle can be applied to both the Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. on the Friday Black-Eyed Susan day card and The Very One S. on the big day.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed This Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s result - Wake Forest, 5th at 2.70-1

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Sharp Angles – Man o’ War S.

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Man o’ War S. (G1)
11F on the turf at Belmont Park (May 13)
Races Analyzed: 14 Graded stakes between 11 & 12 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (43%, $17.60 flat win bet profit, 163 ROI%)

The Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes anchors the second Saturday card of the 2017 Belmont Park spring meeting. Class, translated into earnings, appears to be the key in the graded turf marathons at the iconic New York track.

As shown above, horses ranked first in Average Lifetime Earnings have won 43% of these events since 2013. Among the winners are Sea Calisi ($3.30)i, who scored in last Saturday’s Sheepshead Bay S. (G2) at the same 11-furlong trip as the Man o’ War. We find 2013 Man o’ War conqueror Boisterous ($5.10) among the other winners.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last Sharp Angles result: Elkhorn S. on April 22 - Danish Dynaformer, 4th at 6.70-1

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Kentucky Derby Mix

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The Derby is a very difficult puzzle to solve.

20 horses in a race that are running a distance they have never run before.  It only happens once a year, so there is a very limited amount of data available for reliable analytics.

We have 5 years worth of data in Betmix. We could go back and get more, but the truth of the matter is that the Derby changes from decade to decade.  The new point system that is in place now makes the race very different than it was before 2013.

But despite the difficulty, or maybe because of it, everybody wants to bet that race more than any other race of the year.  Most handicappers end up betting much more on the Derby than they do on any other race. If you win you will get paid handsomely and have bragging rights until next May.

So, lets jump in and see what kind of mix can be created to give us some insight into who may win this year.

This Mix is based on the last 5 KY Derby races. This is an EXTREMELY small sample of data to use when coming up with a mix, but we are working with what we have and hoping for the best.

As you can see from the results below, this mix has identified the winner as the top ranked horse for the last 3 years. In 2013 it had ORB ranked 2nd, and in 2012 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER ranked 3rd. In each year the the winner was in the top 3 and at least one other horse in the top 4 hit the board. Last year, the 3 top ranked horses were in the trifecta.

Instructions for how to add this mix to your library are found at the bottom of this email.

DERBY MIX RESULTS LAST 5 YEARS

To add the Kentucky Derby Mix follow these steps.

1. Login to your Betmix account
2. Go to the MIXLIBRARY page or from the menu (Legacy Tools/Mix Library)
3. Select KENTUCKY Derby in the track drop-down
4. Click the Search MIXLIBRARY button
5. Click the SAVE TO MYMIX button
6. Open the Kentucky Derby in BirdDog and choose the Kentucky Derby Mix from the MyMix dropdown at the top of the screen.

X-Ray Button

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Now you can get a much better picture of how each horse ranks in every handicapping factor.

The Factor Statistics section of BirdDog always showed how all the factors were ranked, from best to worst, and allowed you to sort based on things like Win%, ROI, etc. You could also see which horses were ranked in the top 4 for each of those factors.

If you wanted to see how every horse in the race was ranked, not just the top 4, or how closely ranked the horses were, you would have had to have given a value to the factor and look at the main table. Essentially you were creating a 1-factor mix for each factor you wanted to investigate.

Now, with the new X-RAY button you can see each factor with every horse ranked from best to worst and also see how closely they are ranked. You can also click on any horse number to isolate that horse within the rankings.

Have a look at this quick video to get more information about X-RAY and some ideas on how it can dramatically improve your handicapping.
Take a look at the new stuff in the Free Race Of The Day.

Sharp Angles – Elkhorn S.

Handicapping Blog

Elkhorn S. (G2)
12F on the turf at Keeneland (April 22)
Races Analyzed: 17 stakes at 12 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 6 winners (28%, $82 flat win bet profit, 295 ROI%), 11 1st or 2nd (52%, $42.40 flat place bet profit, 201 ROI%, 13 on the board, 61% $18.60 flat show bet profit, 144 ROI%)

Sometimes finding a winner is as easy as hopping aboard with the hottest jockey. That appears to be the way to go in the marathon turf stakes at Keeneland. The past 17 12-furlong stakes at the Lexington oval have yielded a total of 21 contenders ranked first in Jockey Current Meet. Six (28.6%) have won, four at double-digit odds. The flat win bet profit on those 21 contenders is a juicy $82.

Nearly two thirds of the contenders have hit the board so this factor is definitely the place to start when putting together an exotics ticket.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Giant’s Causeway S. - Lajatico 11th at 22-1

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Sharp Angles – Giant’s Causeway S.

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Giant’s Causeway S.
5.5F on the turf at Keeneland (April 15)
Races Analyzed: 18 stakes at 5.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 3 winners (12%, $59.80 flat win bet profit, 219 ROI%), 7 1st or 2nd (28%, $21.80 flat place bet profit, 142 ROI%)

While the 12% win percentage on this Angle is certainly a cause for pause we thought it was worth highlighting anyway. Last E1 Pace has not only shown some real longshot potential in the Keeneland turf sprint stakes but it’s also a newly emerging Angle.

Exaggerated, the $22 winner of last year’s edition of this race, ranked first in Last E1 Pace. And just last Saturday in the Shakertown S., the male counterpart to the Giant’s Causeway, this Angle pointed the winner Holding Gold ($38.20) and runner-up Green Mask. That pair combined on a $189 exacta payout.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Transylvania S. - Holiday Stone 2nd at 34-1, Ticonderoga 4th at 2-1
Gazelle S. - Aspen Hllltop 9th at 24-1
Wood Memorial - Mo Town 7th at 3.80-1

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Sharp Angles – Wood Memorial & Gazelle S.

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Wood Memorial (G2) & Gazelle S. (G2)
9F on the dirt at Aqueduct (April 8)
Races Analyzed: 16 graded stakes for 3YOs at 9 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $12.10 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 8 first or second (47%, $6.90 flat place bet profit, 120 ROI%)

Racing at Aqueduct has shifted from the Inner Dirt track to the main oval which allows for 9 furlong races. And there are two big ones this Saturday, the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes, both Grade 2 stepping stones to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.

Looking at the past 16 graded dirt races for sophomores going 9 furlongs we find that Distance Pedigree Rating has been a predictive factor. This makes intuitive sense too as many of these contestants are trying 9 furlongs for the first time. In fact, the past two Wood winners have ranked first in this factor - Outwork ($6.80) last April and Frosted ($6.40) in 2015. We also find 2013 Gazelle heroine Close Hatches ($4.50) in this sample.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Distance Pedigree Rating slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Transylvania S.

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Transylvania S. (G3)
8.5F on the turf at Keeneland (April 7)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5F furlongs on turf
Date Range: April 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 3 winners (20%, $3.80 flat win bet profit, 112 ROI%), 6 first or second (40%, $2.40 flat place bet profit, 108 ROI%)

Opening day of the Keeneland Spring meeting signals the real end of winter for thoroughbred racing fans and handicappers. The first Spring card once again features the Transylvania Stakes (G3) for sophomore male turfers and we found a useful Angle for this contest.

To begin our search we first narrowed our criteria down to look only at Keeneland graded grass races for three-year-olds (male and female). We found there have been eight such races since 2013 and they've yielded 15 contenders ranked first in the In the Money % factor. 20% of these are winners who have shown a small flat win bet profit. In this case we can accept these figures because it's been especially predictive in the Transylvania with two recent winners - Shakhimat ($14.20) last opening day and Jack Milton ($7.20) in 2013. Three more runners have completed the exacta in this sample, including Up With the Birds who combined with Jack Milton for a $35 exacta.

How to play: find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse or horses ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Florida Derby: Gunnevera 3rd at $1.10-1, Talk Logistics 6th at $48-1, Coleman Rocky 7th at $103-1.
Mervin Muniz H.: Kasaqui 2nd at $1.90-1.

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Sharp Angles – Florida Derby & Mervin Muniz H.

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We've been on a very good roll with the Sharp Angles blog the past six weeks, pointing to a total of five winners from nine qualifying contenders. That's a 55% strike rate. The flat win bet ROI on all Sharp Angles plays so far in 2017 is now $8.20 and they've shown a small show bet profit as well. This week we're brining back a pair of winning Sharp Angles that can also be applied to two of the big races on the first 'Super Saturday' of the year.

Florida Derby (G1)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 15 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 9 winners (43%, $115.00 flat win bet profit, 373 ROI%, 11 total win/place, $16.10 flat place bet profit, 138 ROI%).

This Angle hit just last week when third choice Fear the Cowboy powered to victory in the Skip Away Stakes (G3). While that race is for older runners Last Turn Time has also pointed to the winners of three of the past four editions of the Florida Derby: Nyquist ($4.40) in 2016, Constitution ($7.60) in 2015 and Orb ($7.80) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Mervin Muniz H. (G2)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 9 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $14.60 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 6 first or second (46%, $13.00 flat place bet profit, 150 ROI%)

We first highlighted this Angle back in late February for the Fair Grounds Handicap and got Enterprising home first at an $8.00 mutuel. It’s been especially effective in recent runners of the Mervin Muniz with three of the past four winners ranking first in Last Turn Time: Chocolate Ride in($10.60) 2015, Skyring ($17.40) in 2014 and Amira’s Prince ($4.60) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Last Week’s Results - Fear the Cowboy ($9.20) 1st in Skip Away Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Skip Away S.

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Skip Away S. (G3)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (March 25)
Races Analyzed: 14 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $107.80 flat win bet profit, 369 ROI%, 10 total win/place, $14.50 flat place bet profit, 136 ROI%).

The Grade 3 Skip Away anchors the March 25 card at Gulfstream Park and has drawn a competitive field of six. The lineup includes Team Colors runner-up in last year’s addition to Valid, who ranked first in Last Turn Time. Valid paid a paltry $2.80 that day but this factor has pointed to seven other 9-furlong Gulfstream Park main track graded winners, two of them at double-digit mutuels. Mshawish, for instance, captured the 2016 Donn Handicap (G1), paying $11.20. The big fish in this sample though is Gamay Noir who got home first in the 2014 Rampart Handicap (G3) at 49-1.

Most handicappers can be expected to 'zig' and focus on early speed and overall speed ratings in a dirt stake like this. With this Sharp Angle Betmix users have the opportunity to 'zag' to a solid payout.

Last Week’s Results - Conquest Fahrenheit ($4.20) 1st in Pasadena Stakes.

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