Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park (2 Divisions Race 8 & 10)
8.5F on Dirt (March 16, 2019)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 28 8.5-furlong stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 32 contenders, 8 winners (25%, $142.40 flat win bet return, 322 ROI%), 17 win/place (53%, $23.60 flat place bet return & $15.10 flat show bet return).
Oaklawn Park's gracious offer to split a $1 million Rebel Stakes into two divisions is a boon to horseman, racing fans and potentially to horseplayers. The Betmix Angler online handicapping database holds information for the past 28 graded stakes for 3-year-olds at the Hot Springs, Arkansas oval. Our analysis of those races found a risky but potentially very lucrative Sharp Angle that can be applied to both divisions.
A total of 32 contenders in this race type have ranked first in Average of Last 3 Turn Time. One quarter of them have found the winner's circle and over half (53%) have finished in the money. They've also yielded a whopping $142.40 Win Return along with double-digit Place and Show Returns. The caution is that those big Returns have come largely from longshot Super Steed who sprang the $126.60 upset less than four weeks ago in the Southwest Stakes. However, there are two other double-digit winners for this angle - High North, winner of last year's Northern Spur Stakes at $11.80 and 2017 Fantasy Stakes (G2) heroine Ever So Clever ($33.60). This angle also pointed to last year's Rebel winner Magnum Moon who returned a solid $8.00 to his backers.