8F on the turf at Santa Anita (March 18)
Races Analyzed: 19 3YO non-graded turf stakes at 8F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 9 winners (36%, $52.20 flat win bet profit, 204 ROI%, 12 total win/place, $5.70 flat place bet profit, 111 ROI%).
Santa Anita’s grassy Pasadena Stakes may not be the most glamorous blacktype event for three-year-olds this weekend but it just might yield a very nice payoff. Looking at the past 19 one mile non-graded stakes for sophomore turfers at Santa Anita we find that Speed Last Race is a key factor in isolating winners. No shock there. Fast horses win races, right?
What’s a pleasant surprise with this factor, though, is that it’s produced some juicy winners as evidenced by the strong $52.20 flat win bet profit. Two years ago the three-year-old filly Singing Kitty swept the Cal Cup Oaks (paying $17.40) and the China Doll Stakes at a $41.60 mutuel. This factor has worked well for the colts too, producing the last two Pasadena winners in Papacoolpapapacool ($12.40) and Dressed in Hermes ($2.80). The average odds of all 25 contenders is nearly 7-1 and their average finish is 3.68.
Last Week’s Results - Ivan Fallunovalot 2nd at 5.20-1 in Hot Springs Stakes
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