Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Pedigree Handicapping – Saratoga Dirt Sires

The 40-day Saratoga meeting is perhaps the most challenging puzzle for handicappers to decipher each year. Betmix was built for the challenge and the ability to mine sire data is just one of the powerful ways Betmix users can get an edge over the general wagering public.

Click here for Del Mar Sire Stats

The chart below shows the top 20 national sires by 2017 runners and the top 10 New York sires, ranked by Win Return on the Saratoga main course since 2012.

Perennial leading sire Speightstown took down the 2004 Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) en route to Eclipse Award honors as Champion Sprinter. His progeny have similarly excelled at Saratoga showing a robust $49.50 Win return, tops in our sample.

The late NY sire Disco Rico leads the way among the Empire State stallions with a 21% progeny Win % as well as positive Win & Place returns.

The progeny of Ghostzapper are definitely worth an extra look at the 2018 Saratoga meeting. His sons and daughters won at a nearly 25% clip over the past six years and have hit the board a remarkable 60% of the time while showing healthy Win, Place & Show returns.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Pedigree Handicapping – Del Mar Dirt Sires

Here we go! The boutique summer racing season kicks off on Wednesday, July 18 when Del Mar opens its gates. In our continuing effort to provide Betmix users unique handicapping data we dove into some sire performance trends for the seaside track.

Click here for Saratoga Sire Stats

The chart below shows the top 20 national sires by 2017 runners and the top 10 California sires, ranked by Win Return on the Del Mar dirt course.

With a limited sample Stay Thirsty leads the way with a $68.40 Win Return. The Travers/Cigar Mile winner stood his first season in California in 2018 and it will be interesting to see how his numbers hold up when his Cal-bred crops hit the races in the coming years.

California veteran sire Tribal Rule shows a much larger sample and his $27.20 Win Return indicates his runners should be given extra consideration.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button


Sharp Angles – Suburban Handicap

Suburban H. (G2) at Belmont Park
10F on Dirt (July 7)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 10 Belmont Park Dirt Stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Average Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 4 winners (40%, $15.50 flat win bet profit, 177 ROI%), 6 place/show (60%)

The Suburban Handicap (G2) is one of the older stakes events in North America. Saturday's 132nd running has attracted a field of 11 and, with the help of the Betmix Angler handicapping software, we can narrow zero in on the likely winner.

The Average Speed Last 3 factor has pointed a quartet of 10-furlong stakes winners at Belmont Park over the past few years. Among those is Effinex, the two-time Suburban winner, who paid $15.60 in 2015 and $6.30 the following year.

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Sharp Angles – Ohio Derby

Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown
9F on Dirt (June 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 7 dirt stakes for 3YOs going 9 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 6 winners (33%, $10.40 flat win bet profit, 128 ROI%), 10 place/show (55%, $6.00 place bet profit)

Saturday's Ohio Derby (G3) is the highlight of the Ohio thoroughbred racing calendar. The race regained it's graded status last year and this year's 12-horse field promises to be a boon for track management and handicappers alike. Luckily, the Betmix Angler handicapping software can provide some insight to bettors ready to tackle the challenge.

Last Purse Rank
has pointed to the last two Ohio Derby heroes - Irap ($7.60) and Mo Tom ($4.20) - as well the winners of four other 9 furlong sophomore stakes at the suburban Cleveland track.

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Sharp Angles – Wise Dan S.

Wise Dan S. (G2) at Churchill Downs
8.5F on Turf (June 16)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 48 middle distance turf stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year
Factor Stats: 60 contenders, 15 winners (25%, $121.40 flat win bet profit, 229 ROI%), 23 win/place ($32.70 place bet profit)

The second half of the thoroughbred racing season kicks off (unofficially) with Saturday night's Stephen Foster program at Churchill Downs. This year's card has drawn deep and competitive fields for all five stakes contests, including the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we discovered that Trainer Current Year has pointed to the winners of 13 of the past 40 turf stakes run at 8 or 8.5 furlongs under the Twin Spires. The sample includes Pleuven, the $17.20 winner of last year's Wise Dan.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Belmont Dirt Sires

The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival has quickly emerged as one of the most compelling racing and handicapping weekends of the year. With 10 of the 15 stakes events contested on the main track, we used the Sire Analysis feature within Betmix Angler to look at the progeny of all stallions with starters in the Festival dirt stakes. Full results are shown below, sorted by Win Return. An additional chart with the qualifying stallions listed alphabetically is provided for reference below that.

There are four runners by 2007 Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin this weekend and they certainly merit extra consideration based on this data. Over one quarter of Curlin's Belmont main track runners have found the winner's circle and at a fantastic $134.10 Win Return. Among those is his first crop star Palace Malice, who won the 2013 Belmont Stakes at nearly 14-1 and returned to take the 2012 Met Mile as the $1.35-1 favorite.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Alphabetical Listing:

Pedigree Handicapping – Turf Sprint Sires

Late last year we took a look at the progeny performance of the leading 2017 Turf Sires from a handicapping perspective.

This time we'll be a little more specific and delve into the data for Turf Sprints (grass races under 7.5 furlongs). We started with the top 25 sires by 2018 turf starts and then analyzed the progeny performance of those sires in all Turf Springs from January 1, 2017 to May 30, 2018. The chart immediately below shows that Scat Daddy and Broken Vow have been the most profitable sires over the past 17 months.

The late Scat Daddy is better known to racing fans as the sire of Triple Crown hopeful Justify, but breeders know him as an extremely versatile sire. His Win Return has been buoyed by eight winners paying $20 or more, ranging in class from Grade 3 winner Mr. Roary (2017 Eddie D. Stakes at 22-1) to the $92 Maiden Claimer winner Escarpela.

Broken Vow ranks second by Win Return but lands on top by Win % and in second again by In the Money %. These stats make his runners in Turf Sprints worth a long look.

 

 

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.

Sharp Angles – Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Gold Cup at Santa Anita
10F on Dirt (May 26)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 13 Santa Anita dirt Graded Stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 6 winners (46%, $51.40 flat win bet profit, 297 ROI%, 10 place/show $17.00 place bet profit & $7.90 show bet profit)

The historic Hollywood Gold Cup moved east to Santa Anita Park in 2014 where it remains one of four 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's for older horses in North America. With the Santa Anita Handicap among the others (along with the Breeders' Cup Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup) a pretty good sample size has accumulated for this specific condition over the past few years. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that a very strong predictive factor has emerged as well.

Last Late Pace has pointed to the winners of nearly half of the the past 13 Gold Cup/Big 'Cap winners and over three quarters have hit the board. As shown above, the win, place and show flat bet profits are all juicy and the winner's sample includes 2015 Gold Cup hero Hard Aces ($17.80 to win) and this year's Big 'Cap winner Accelerate ($7.00).

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Sharp Angles – Miss Preakness Stakes & Chick Lang Stakes

Miss Preakness S. & Chick Lang S. 
6F on Dirt (May 18 & May 19)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 10 Pimlico dirt Stakes for 3YOs going 6 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 4 winners (36%, $12.20 flat win bet profit, 155 ROI%, 6 place/show $2.80 place bet profit)

While Justify takes center stage in Preakness 143 and the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes provides an important two-turn test for sophomore fillies, there are some rich opportunities for 3-year-old sprinters of both sexes at Pimlico this weekend. The $150,000 Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) on Friday and the $200,000 Chick Lang S. on the Preakness undercard are both run at 6 furlongs and may yield some riches for handicappers as well.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the past five runnings of each of these contests we find that Best Speed Last 3 has been a profitable factor. Two Miss Preakenss winners and two Chick Lang winners since 2013 have ranked first in this factor. Both of last year's winners are included in this sample - Vertical Oak, heroine of the Miss Preakness paying $15.60 and Recruiting Ready, who conquered the Chick Lang at 5/2 odds.

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Sharp Angles – Man o’ War Stakes

Man o' War S.
11F on Turf (May 12)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 47 graded stakes at Belmont Park on turf, 10 furlongs or longer
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 47 contenders, 20 winners (42%, $33.40 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%, 26 win/place $2.30 place bet profit)

The Man o' War Stakes kicks off the Grade 1 racing at the 2018 Belmont Park spring meeting and the 11-furlong turf marathon had attracted a very solid field of older grass marathoners. This division tends to produce a circuit of hard-knocking veterans and, indeed, the average age of the 10 Man o' War entrants is six-years-old. So it makes since that a factor like Average Lifetime Earnings is a positive indicator in these race types. A very good 42% of the winners ranking first in Average Lifetime Earnings have found the winner's circle for a very healthy $33.40 flat win bet profit.

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