Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

NEW! Owner/Trainer Stats

We've added a new tab to the Factor Statistics widget called O/T Stats which stands for Owner/Trainer stats.

Owner/Trainer stats show you how often a trainer and owner have raced together and what kind of success they have had. This kind of information has always given me an edge in the past, but it has been time consuming to pull it out horse by horse in Angler.

The basic idea is that trainers tend to do better for their main clients. They want to keep them happy! Also, when a trainer is running a horse for a new client they certainly want to make a positive first impression.

There is also information in this tab for the HORSE: number of lifetime starts, wins and days since last win.

When you click the OT tab you will see a table like this:

LIFETIME STARTS: The number of races the horse has run during its career
LIFETIME WINS: The number of races the horse has won during its career.

DAYS SINCE LAST WIN: The number of days since the horse last won a race. If a horse hasn't won a race in several hundred days, why do you think it will win today?

O/T MATCHES: The number of times the trainer and owner have run a horse (this is not limited to this horse, but includes all horses ever trained for this owner).  People tend to focus more on their best clients...

O/T WIN %: The percentage of time the trainer and owner win when running a horse.

O/T PLACE %: The percentage of time the trainer and owner place when running a horse.

O/T SHOW %: The percentage of time the trainer and owner show when running a horse.

There are many ways to interpret these stats, but as a general rule of thumb, looking at horses that have a large number in the O/T Matches column with a show % of higher than 35 is a good place to start (trainers want to keep their big clients happy by putting horses in the best spots to win).  Also - pay attention to trainers that have never trained for an owner before (0 in O/T Matches) everyone want to make a good first impression.

 

New! More Detailed BirdDog Filters

The key to winning handicapping is to have the best stats available to you at all times. When looking at similar races from the past its always best to compare apples to apples! We have made a simple change to BirdDog that gives you much more control over the stats you see for any race.

When you have the Factor Statistics widget open in BirdDog you will see a new gear icon.  Clicking that icon brings up a menu that allows you to filter information about the races you want included in your stats.
After clicking that icon you will see a menu like this:

TRACK CONDITION: This allows you to select past races that were run on the same kind of track that you are handicapping today. If you only want to include Fast races then you would select that option. If the track is muddy or sloppy you would select those options and the races used in the stats would be restricted to past races like this that were run over a sloppy or muddy track. When a race comes off the turf, you would select the new surface as Dirt and then most likely change the track condition to Muddy or Sloppy (or both to include more races).

NUMBER OF HISTORICAL RACES: This gives you control over how many races are used to compile the statistics. You can look at the last 200 similar races, but sometimes recency is more important. In some race types you will only find a few races no matter how many you are looking for. Grade 1 races, and odd distances may not have more than 4 or 5 similar races over the life of our database. Common races like 6f dirt claiming races will return the maximum of 200.

DISTANCE: By default all of the settings reflect the information about the current race you are handicapping, and the distance will be set to exactly what today's race is. Sometimes when a race comes off the turf, the distance is also changed, so you would want to make that change here if that occurs. If you are getting a small result set for an uncommon distance like 11 furlongs, you may want to expand your results by including 10f -12f races.

SURFACE: In the event that a race is switched from Turf to Dirt you would make that change here. You would never want to switch to turf for a dirt race!

CLASS: Again, if you are finding very few similar race types for a race you are handicapping you may want to broaden the class range. For a Graded race, you may want to expand your results to include G1, G2 and G3 races.  You could also include non-graded stakes...

STARTERS: Sometimes you will see a significant difference in the types of stats for a race based on the number of starters. If there is a small field (6 or less horses) you may want to only look at other races with small fields. The same would hold true for races with large fields (10 or more horses). Different pace factors can become more or less important based on the size of the field you are handicapping.

Sharp Angles – E. P. Taylor S.

E. P. Taylor S. (G1)
10F on turf (October 15)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 16 stakes Woodbine stakes at 10F on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 7 winners (39%, $18.80 flat win bet profit, 152 ROI%), 11 win/place ($61%, $13.40 place bet profit $137).

The October 15 card at Woodbine carries Canada's last two Grade 1's of the year, including the E. P. Taylor Stakes for female turfers. Using the BirdDog handicapping software we find that Average Speed Last 3 factor has been powerful in races at the Taylor's 10-furling distance over the Woodbine grass course. This angle has pointed to nearly 40% winners and has predicted part of the exactor over 60% of the time.

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Question Of the Week – How Can I Build Jockey/Trainer Angles?

Q: How can I use Angler to build trainer or jockey angles?

A: Great question.  Keeneland is getting ready to start this weekend, and there are several great angles to build around trainers and jockeys at that track.  We looked at the last three fall meets at KEE in Angler and pulled out this data:


To put this information to use, you should be creating Angle around these Trainer/Jock combos.  Take a look at this video to see how easy it is!

Trainer / Jockey Angles

Get started with your own angles today at Betmix.

 

 

Keeneland Handicapping Tips

Friday is opening day for Keeneland's Fall Meet.  Its a short meet: (Oct. 6-28), and when you run into short meets at tracks with big purses like Keeneland, the best approach is often to focus on dominant trainers and jockeys.

Keeneland is located in Lexington, KY,which is the heart of the thoroughbred industry. Most prominent owners, breeders,trainers and jockeys are focused on getting a win there in front of the types of people that could be future customers or employers. Trainers often prep their horses at other tracks for wins at Keeneland. Owners tell their trainers to get the horse ready for this meet so they can get their pictures taken with friends and family, etc.

Looking at the past 3 fall meets in Angler, we are able to identify the trainers, jockeys and T/J combos you should pay close attention to:

Keeneland Fall Meets (2014-2016)
Trainer Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Mark Casse 102 28 38 47 27.45 $18.20
Todd Pletcher 82 22 37 44 26.83 $35.80
Ken McPeek 107 21 40 49 19.63 $42.80
Graham Motion 89 19 28 39 21.35 $47.00
Ian Wilkes 123 15 27 42 12.2 $30.80
Andrew McKeever 35 6 12 13 17.14 $73.80
Victoria Oliver 48 6 8 14 12.5 $33.80
Chad Brown 33 5 8 13 15.15 $26.00
Michelle Lovell 14 5 7 9 35.71 $21.80
Chris Hartman 19 4 5 7 21.05 $15.00
Angel Montano 12 4 6 7 33.33 $27.40
Jockey Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Julien Leparoux 296 57 105 140 19.26 ($65.80)
CJ Lanerie 320 53 94 145 16.56 ($184.40)
Florent Geroux 250 36 66 100 14.4 ($100.80)
Ricardo Santana 187 26 46 66 13.9 $62.60
Chris Landeros 136 22 35 44 16.18 $187.80
Shaun Bridgmohan 149 21 37 53 14.09 ($113.00)
Paco Lopez 109 18 37 60 16.51 ($56.60)
John Velazquez 64 16 26 30 25 $22.40
HOT COMBOS Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Casse/Leparoux 30 14 18 19 46.67 $36.60
McPeek/Leparoux 25 8 11 13 32 $32.00
Wilkes/Landeros 34 7 9 11 20.59 $109.00
McPeek/Landeros 25 6 10 11 24 $62.80
Motion/Prado 9 4 4 4 44.44 $29.40
Casse/Florent 10 4 4 4 40 $18.20
Pletcher/Rosario 8 4 5 6 50 $6.20

Breaking down the race by Dirt/Turf and Sprint/Route, the information below shows you the best factor combinations to look for:

Dirt Sprint Matches Wins Win% Profit on $2 Win Bet
1st Best Speed Last 3 & 1st Avg E2 Pace 85 34 40 $19.80
Dirt Route
1st Avg Speed Last 3 & 1st Avg E2 Pace 51 21 41.2 ($0.08)
Turf Sprint
1st Avg Last 3 Race Class 14 5 35.7 $42.40
Turf Route
Won last race & Top 3 in Speed Last Race 109 25 22.9 $46.60

The best way to use this information is to build Trainer / Jockey Angles.  If you are new to Betmix, or have not yet worked with Angler, take a look at this video that explains how easy it is to create an angle. Putting this information into Angler will pay off handsomely at Keeneland and at other tracks you play.

Trainer / Jockey Angles
 

Get started with your own angles today at Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Ack Ack Stakes

Ack Ack S. (G3)
8F on dirt (September 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 21 stakes at one mile on dirt at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 7 winners (30%, $31.40 flat win bet profit, 168% ROI) 10 win/place (43%, $6.00 place bet profit, 114% ROI)

The Breeders' Cup prep season begins in earnest this weekend with big days at Belmont Park and Santa Anita. The Churchill Downs card also features multiple stakes, including the Ack Ack S. (G3) that serves as the midwest prep for the BC Dirt Mile. Last Late Pace has proven to be a good indicator of success in the mile dirt stakes at Churchill Downs (which are at one turn). The seven winners in this sample have gone off at average odds of nearly 4-1.

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Sharp Angles – Natalma S. & Summer S.

Natalma Stakes (G1) & Summer Stakes (G2)
8F on turf (September 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 8 stakes for two-year-olds at 8F on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%), $50.30 flat win bet profit (379 ROI%) and $15.90 flat place bet profit & $8.90 flat show bet profit.

The creation of the Breeders' Cup two-year-old turf races several years ago put a couple of late summer stakes at Woodbine front and center - the Natalma Stakes and the Summer Stakes. Using the Betmix Angler online handicapping software we find that Last Late Pace has been a very profitable approach to playing this racetype at the Toronto track. This Angle has pointed to the last three Summer winners (average win payout of $16.86) and to Victory to Victory, heroine of last year's Natalma at a $17.70 win mutuel.

Want to look for your own Angles?
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Question of the Week – What is Mixbot?

Q: What is Mixbot and how does it work?

A: MixBot handicaps previous similar races, trying to find a mix that would have selected the winner in those races, and then applies that mix to the current race you are handicapping. The MixBot results are found in the handicapping overview section and are categorized by what the winner in previous races paid.

Watch this video for more information on how MixBot works, and how you can use it to win more races:

Question of the Week – Where Can I Find More Track Info?

Q: Where can I find out more information about what is happening at the tracks I play?

A: In addition to all of the horse specific handicapping data we compile at Betmix, we maintain data about each race track. You can find some of that information in the Handicapping Journal, and more detailed stats about each racetrack and race type on any individual race page.

Looking at today’s free race, you will see a button labelled Track Report. When you click that you get detailed information about post and payouts for different race types.

Before handicapping a race its helpful to click on that button and get some idea of how often favorites are winning the type of race you are getting ready to play.

Sharp Angles – Del Mar Derby

Sharp Angle - Sunday, September 3
Del Mar Derby (G2)
9 furlongs on turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 stakes for 3YOs at 9 furlongs on turf at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 5 winners (37%, $39.80 flat win bet profit, 210 ROI% and a $5.60 flat place profit)

The three-year-old male turfers return to the spotlight at Del Mar on Sunday in the Del Mar Derby. We isolated the Last E1 Pace factor for 9-furlong turf stakes a few weeks ago for the Del Mar Oaks and narrowly missed hitting that one after Beau Recall fell a nose shy at nearly 6-1. This factor has also highlighted 2015 Del Mar Derby hero Om, who brought bettors peace with a $15 win mutuel.

Results: Bowies Hero 3rd at $3.40-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
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