Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angles – Skip Away S.

Skip Away S. (G3)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (March 25)
Races Analyzed: 14 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $107.80 flat win bet profit, 369 ROI%, 10 total win/place, $14.50 flat place bet profit, 136 ROI%).

The Grade 3 Skip Away anchors the March 25 card at Gulfstream Park and has drawn a competitive field of six. The lineup includes Team Colors runner-up in last year’s addition to Valid, who ranked first in Last Turn Time. Valid paid a paltry $2.80 that day but this factor has pointed to seven other 9-furlong Gulfstream Park main track graded winners, two of them at double-digit mutuels. Mshawish, for instance, captured the 2016 Donn Handicap (G1), paying $11.20. The big fish in this sample though is Gamay Noir who got home first in the 2014 Rampart Handicap (G3) at 49-1.

Most handicappers can be expected to 'zig' and focus on early speed and overall speed ratings in a dirt stake like this. With this Sharp Angle Betmix users have the opportunity to 'zag' to a solid payout.

Last Week’s Results - Conquest Fahrenheit ($4.20) 1st in Pasadena Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Pasadena S.

Pasadena Stakes
8F on the turf at Santa Anita (March 18)
Races Analyzed: 19 3YO non-graded turf stakes at 8F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 9 winners (36%, $52.20 flat win bet profit, 204 ROI%, 12 total win/place, $5.70 flat place bet profit, 111 ROI%).

Santa Anita’s grassy Pasadena Stakes may not be the most glamorous blacktype event for three-year-olds this weekend but it just might yield a very nice payoff. Looking at the past 19 one mile non-graded stakes for sophomore turfers at Santa Anita we find that Speed Last Race is a key factor in isolating winners. No shock there. Fast horses win races, right?

What’s a pleasant surprise with this factor, though, is that it’s produced some juicy winners as evidenced by the strong $52.20 flat win bet profit. Two years ago the three-year-old filly Singing Kitty swept the Cal Cup Oaks (paying $17.40) and the China Doll Stakes at a $41.60 mutuel. This factor has worked well for the colts too, producing the last two Pasadena winners in Papacoolpapapacool ($12.40) and Dressed in Hermes ($2.80). The average odds of all 25 contenders is nearly 7-1 and their average finish is 3.68.

Last Week’s Results - Ivan Fallunovalot 2nd at 5.20-1 in Hot Springs Stakes

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NEW! More MixBot Data Available in BirdDog

Many Betmix users rely heavily on the picks in the Handicapping Overview section of BirdDog. One of the most popular sections is the MixBot picks.

We've made some additional data available, and we think you will find that information very useful.

If you are not sure what MixBot does, here is a brief explanation: There is an ideal way to handicap any race. If you created a mix using a certain set of factors, and weighed those factors correctly you would have identified the winner. Of course that is much easier to do after the race than before it. If you have used MixMaker before, that's what it attempts to do - it will identify the factors that should have been used to pick the winner and then creates a mix using those factors.

MixBot does the same thing, but it goes out and finds several similar races and creates mixes for each one of them. Then it will apply the mixes it created to the race you are currently handicapping. In the past, MixBot only looked at 4 races.

Now we are grabbing the results of 12 races and displaying them in the Handicapping Overview section. We find 3 races where the winner was a heavy favorite (paid $6 or less), 3 races with a moderate favorite (paid $6.01 - $10), 3 races with a moderate longshot (paid $10.01 - $20), and 3 races where the winner was a longshot that paid more than $20.

Looking at the Mixbot mixes segmented by what the winner paid in past races gives you a better idea of what might happen today. If you see the heavy favorite on top in the mixes based on races won by favorites then you might expect the same to happen today. If you see a longshot on top in the longshot mixes, then that is a horse to pay attention to...

There are several ways to use this information to help you find more logical plays, especially if you are looking for a few likely horses in multi-race wagers.

NewMixbot317

Take a look at the new stuff in the Free Race Of The Day.

Sharp Angles – Hot Springs S.

Hot Springs S.
6F on the dirt at Oaklawn Park (March 11)
Races Analyzed: 70 stakes at 6F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 74 contenders, 24 winners (32%, $34.80 flat win bet profit, 123.5 ROI%).

Confidence. That can be the difference between a two-fisted bet and a more tepid wager. A fast race over the same surface is certainly a prime handicapping factor to consider. In 6-furlong dirt stakes at Oaklawn Park Betmix Angler tells us, with confidence, that Best Speed Today’s Track is the factor to isolate.

34% of the 74 qualifying runners since 2013 have won this race type and a $2 win bet on all would have yielded a profit of $34.80 (123.5 ROI%). In 2017 there have already been a quintet of 6-furlong dirt stakes in Hot Springs and three of them have been conquered by the runner ranking first in Best Speed Today’s Track. The average payoff of those three is $8.33.

Last Week's Results - Bird Song ($8.20) 1st in Fred W. Hooper Stakes, Pretty City Dancer 6th at 3-1 in Davona Dale Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Davona Dale S. & Fred W. Hooper S.

Davona Dale S. (G2) & Fred W. Hooper S. (G3) 
8F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (March 4)
Races Analyzed: 17 graded stakes at 8F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 6 winners (26%, $49.40 flat win bet profit, 207 ROI%), 13 total in the money (56%, $19.40 flat place bet profit, 143 ROI% & $8.10 flat bet show profit 117 ROI%)

The mile distance, especially at the graded level, often demands a perfect combination of speed and stamina. So perhaps it’s not surprising to find that Distance Pedigree Rank has pointed to some juicy long shots in 8 furlong graded events on the Gulfstream Park main track.

Case in point is Ekati’s Phaeton, the $55.60 winner of the 2015 Davona Dale S. for sophomore fillies. It’s true that the daughter of Tale of Ekati is a big reason why this factor is in the black, but she’s also an example of why it’s likely so effective. She was a three-time winner, including a graded race, at 6 furlongs but had failed to hit the board in her previous races at a mile (on the turf) and at 7 furlongs. Her Distance Pedigree Rank made those efforts easier to forgive and made it easier to take a chance on her at 26-1.

The Distance Pedigree Rank factor can also be applied to the 8 furlong graded races for older runners like Saturday’s Fred W. Hooper Stakes. Fairly priced winners like Mshawish ($6.40/2016 Hal’s Hope S., Honor Code ($7.00/2015 Gulfstream Park H.) and Lea ($14.80/2014 Hal’s Hope S.) were all contenders on this factor.

Last Sharp Angles results: Enterprising ($8.00) 1st in Fair Grounds H.

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Sharp Angles – Fair Grounds H.

Fair Grounds H. (G3)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (February 25)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 3 winners (25%, $8.60 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 5 first or second (41%, $11.20 flat place bet profit, 146 ROI%)

This week the racing world turns it’s attention to Fair Grounds in New Orleans where the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap is one of six stakes on the docket. The 9-furlong grass race serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial H. over the same course & distance on April 1. We’ve uncovered a nice Sharp Angle that applies to both fixtures.

The last eight 9-furlongs turf graded stakes in the Big Easy have yielded a total of 12 contenders who’ve ranked first in Last Turn Time. Three of those (25%) have found the winner's circle, two at double digit odds. Among the group is Skyring, winner of the 2014 Muniz H. at nearly 8-1. He also qualified as a contender in that year's Fair Grounds H. where he ran second at 15-1.

Last Sharp Angles results: Imperial Hint ($7.60) & Never Gone South (37-1), 1st & 3rd in General George S. ($248 tri with favorite 2nd); Clothes Fall Off, 3rd at 8.30-1 in Barbara Fritchie S.

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Sharp Angles – Barbara Fritchie S. & General George S.

Barbara Fritchie S. (G2) & General George S. (G3)
7F on the dirt at Laurel (February 18)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 7F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 3 winners (37%, $5.20 flat win bet profit, 132 ROI%), 6 in the money (75%, $1.80 flat show bet profit, 111 ROI%)

Laurel Park hosts a stakes-packed ‘Winter Carnival’ card on February 18 with the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie S. and Grade 3 General George S. serving as the co-features. Both contests are run at 7 furlongs on the main track and the Best Speed Today’s Track factor has been prescient in selecting winners of these two races.

This factor pointed to last year’s General George hero Page McKenney ($6.80) and two of the past three Fritchie winners in Lady Sabelia (2015) and My Wandy’s Girl (2014), who both scored at 5/2 odds. Three others have hit the board, including Il Villano, runner up in the 2013 General George.

Last Sharp Angles results: McCraken ($5.00) 1st, Fact Finding 5th in Sam F. Davis S.

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Sharp Angles – Sam F. Davis S.

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
8.5F on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs (February 11)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YO colts at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 11 qualifying horses, 4 winners (36%, $30.60 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 239), 6 win/place (54%, $9.4 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 142.7)

The 2017 Kentucky Derby trail winds through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 11 with the 38th edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). The Davis is run at the same 8.5F distance on the main track as the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby (G2) so the last four runnings of each fixture constitutes our eight-race group.

It’s a small sample but one that has yielded very good and very specific success in this very race. Ranking first in Win % has pointed to three of the past four Sam Davis winners: 2015 champ Ocean Knight ($5.20), 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) and Falling Sky ($17.80) who triumphed by a neck in 2013. We’ll certainly take those double-digit payoffs.

Last Sharp Angles results: Classic Empire, 3rd at .50-1 in Holy Bull Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Holy Bull S.

Holy Bull S. (G2)
8.5F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (February 4)
Races Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 16 qualifying horses, 8 winners (50%, $19.80 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 161), 11 win/place (68%, $5 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 115)

Excitement for the 2017 Kentucky Derby will be amped up this weekend after three more graded preps at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. Betmix Angler may be of help in handicapping Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull Stakes, a mile and one sixteenth (8.5F) affair that has drawn a field of nine Derby aspirants.

The past four Holy Bull winners have ranked first in Best Speed Fast Track - Mohaymen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). This factor has pointed to four other winners, including Wildcat Red, the $11 winner of the 2014 Fountain of Youth S. (G2).

No one will be buying a private island with these payoffs but there is always value in determining whether it’s prudent to stand with or against the public’s choices. With a strong fave like champion Classic Empire in this year’s Holy Bull field, Best Speed Fast Track should be the ideal place to start handicapping his chances of finding the winner's circle again on Saturday.

Last Sharp Angles results: Lobelia 8th at 53-1 in La Prevoyante H. & Danish Dynaformer 8th at 9/2 in W. L. McKnight H.

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Sharp Angles – La Prevoyante H. & W. L. McKnight H.

La Prevoyante H. (G3) & W. L. McKnight H. (G3)
12F on the turf at Gulfstream Park (January 28)
Races Analyzed: 11 graded stakes at 12 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 qualifying horses, 6 in the money (50%), $25.20 flat bet place profit (205 ROI%), $7.80 flat bet show profit (132 ROI%).

The new $12 million Pegasus World Cup may be the most compelling thoroughbred horse race on the planet on Saturday. But Gulfstream Park has put together a sensational stakes-pack undercard that includes a pair of marathon graded stakes on the turf. Betmix Angler shows Last Turn Time has been effective in isolating long shot plays for this race type.

Two of the last 12 horses ranking first in Last Turn Time have won recent 12 furlong graded races on the Gulfstream lawn - Imaging, the $7.40 winner of the 2015 Pan American S. (G3) and Divine Oath, who took the 2014 McKnight H. at a 10.80 mutuel. However, this factor has pointed to some juicer payoffs in the place & show spots and underneath in the exactas & tris. In the 2015 La Prevoyante, for example, Maximova was the 35-1 runner up to even money Goldy Espony. The exacta paid $98 exacta and the trifecta cashed for over $700 with third choice Rosalind in the show spot. Overall, these runners have gone off at an average odds of 17-1 and the sample includes another double-digit runner up in Angegree, second at 12-1 in the 2013 Orchid Handicap.

Last Sharp Angles results: Clearly Now 4th in the Duncan Kenner Stakes at 2.90-1

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