All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Fair Grounds H.

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Fair Grounds H. (G3)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (February 25)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 3 winners (25%, $8.60 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 5 first or second (41%, $11.20 flat place bet profit, 146 ROI%)

This week the racing world turns it’s attention to Fair Grounds in New Orleans where the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap is one of six stakes on the docket. The 9-furlong grass race serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial H. over the same course & distance on April 1. We’ve uncovered a nice Sharp Angle that applies to both fixtures.

The last eight 9-furlongs turf graded stakes in the Big Easy have yielded a total of 12 contenders who’ve ranked first in Last Turn Time. Three of those (25%) have found the winner's circle, two at double digit odds. Among the group is Skyring, winner of the 2014 Muniz H. at nearly 8-1. He also qualified as a contender in that year's Fair Grounds H. where he ran second at 15-1.

Last Sharp Angles results: Imperial Hint ($7.60) & Never Gone South (37-1), 1st & 3rd in General George S. ($248 tri with favorite 2nd); Clothes Fall Off, 3rd at 8.30-1 in Barbara Fritchie S.

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Sharp Angles – Barbara Fritchie S. & General George S.

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Barbara Fritchie S. (G2) & General George S. (G3)
7F on the dirt at Laurel (February 18)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 7F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 3 winners (37%, $5.20 flat win bet profit, 132 ROI%), 6 in the money (75%, $1.80 flat show bet profit, 111 ROI%)

Laurel Park hosts a stakes-packed ‘Winter Carnival’ card on February 18 with the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie S. and Grade 3 General George S. serving as the co-features. Both contests are run at 7 furlongs on the main track and the Best Speed Today’s Track factor has been prescient in selecting winners of these two races.

This factor pointed to last year’s General George hero Page McKenney ($6.80) and two of the past three Fritchie winners in Lady Sabelia (2015) and My Wandy’s Girl (2014), who both scored at 5/2 odds. Three others have hit the board, including Il Villano, runner up in the 2013 General George.

Last Sharp Angles results: McCraken ($5.00) 1st, Fact Finding 5th in Sam F. Davis S.

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Sharp Angles – Sam F. Davis S.

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Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
8.5F on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs (February 11)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YO colts at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 11 qualifying horses, 4 winners (36%, $30.60 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 239), 6 win/place (54%, $9.4 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 142.7)

The 2017 Kentucky Derby trail winds through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 11 with the 38th edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). The Davis is run at the same 8.5F distance on the main track as the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby (G2) so the last four runnings of each fixture constitutes our eight-race group.

It’s a small sample but one that has yielded very good and very specific success in this very race. Ranking first in Win % has pointed to three of the past four Sam Davis winners: 2015 champ Ocean Knight ($5.20), 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) and Falling Sky ($17.80) who triumphed by a neck in 2013. We’ll certainly take those double-digit payoffs.

Last Sharp Angles results: Classic Empire, 3rd at .50-1 in Holy Bull Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Holy Bull S.

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Holy Bull S. (G2)
8.5F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (February 4)
Races Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 16 qualifying horses, 8 winners (50%, $19.80 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 161), 11 win/place (68%, $5 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 115)

Excitement for the 2017 Kentucky Derby will be amped up this weekend after three more graded preps at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. Betmix Angler may be of help in handicapping Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull Stakes, a mile and one sixteenth (8.5F) affair that has drawn a field of nine Derby aspirants.

The past four Holy Bull winners have ranked first in Best Speed Fast Track - Mohaymen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). This factor has pointed to four other winners, including Wildcat Red, the $11 winner of the 2014 Fountain of Youth S. (G2).

No one will be buying a private island with these payoffs but there is always value in determining whether it’s prudent to stand with or against the public’s choices. With a strong fave like champion Classic Empire in this year’s Holy Bull field, Best Speed Fast Track should be the ideal place to start handicapping his chances of finding the winner's circle again on Saturday.

Last Sharp Angles results: Lobelia 8th at 53-1 in La Prevoyante H. & Danish Dynaformer 8th at 9/2 in W. L. McKnight H.

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Sharp Angles – La Prevoyante H. & W. L. McKnight H.

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La Prevoyante H. (G3) & W. L. McKnight H. (G3)
12F on the turf at Gulfstream Park (January 28)
Races Analyzed: 11 graded stakes at 12 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 qualifying horses, 6 in the money (50%), $25.20 flat bet place profit (205 ROI%), $7.80 flat bet show profit (132 ROI%).

The new $12 million Pegasus World Cup may be the most compelling thoroughbred horse race on the planet on Saturday. But Gulfstream Park has put together a sensational stakes-pack undercard that includes a pair of marathon graded stakes on the turf. Betmix Angler shows Last Turn Time has been effective in isolating long shot plays for this race type.

Two of the last 12 horses ranking first in Last Turn Time have won recent 12 furlong graded races on the Gulfstream lawn - Imaging, the $7.40 winner of the 2015 Pan American S. (G3) and Divine Oath, who took the 2014 McKnight H. at a 10.80 mutuel. However, this factor has pointed to some juicer payoffs in the place & show spots and underneath in the exactas & tris. In the 2015 La Prevoyante, for example, Maximova was the 35-1 runner up to even money Goldy Espony. The exacta paid $98 exacta and the trifecta cashed for over $700 with third choice Rosalind in the show spot. Overall, these runners have gone off at an average odds of 17-1 and the sample includes another double-digit runner up in Angegree, second at 12-1 in the 2013 Orchid Handicap.

Last Sharp Angles results: Clearly Now 4th in the Duncan Kenner Stakes at 2.90-1

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Sharp Angles – Duncan Kenner S.

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Duncan Kenner S.
6F on the dirt at Fair Grounds on January 21
Races Analyzed: 53 stakes at 6F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: In the Money % Rank
Factor Stats: 98 qualifying horses, 20% have won (106 ROI%, $13.40 flat bet profit), 51% in the money (68 ROI%)

The first big card of the 2017 Fair Grounds meeting is Saturday January 21. While the six furlong Duncan Kenner Stakes might be not attract the attention of the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks preps on the docket, it just might offer the best wagering opportunity.

This is because Betmix Angler tells us that runners ranking first in In the Money % have done very well in six furlong dirt stakes at the New Orleans oval. The last 53 such contests have yielded 98 contenders and over half of them have hit the board at an average odds of over 9-1. The winning clip is a solid 20% and a $2 win bet on all has yielded profit of $13.40 & 106 Win ROI%.

Last Sharp Angles results: Kitten’s Cat 4th at 1.80-1 in Dania Beach S., Conquest Vivi 10th at 7.20-1 in Ginger Brew S.

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Betmix Labs

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We spend most of our time at Betmix working on new handicapping tools.

We get an idea, or a customer presents an idea to us, and we start developing. Most of the time we end up with something pretty nice like BirdDog or Angler. Sometimes we "rip up our tickets" and start over.

In many cases we develop tools that are really cool, but maybe only truly useful in certain situations or for certain types of handicappers.

Rather than keeping those tools on the shelf, we have created a page called Betmix Labs. On this page you can experiment with some of the pretty neat tools we have created over the last year that have only been available "in house".

Each of these tools have strengths and weaknesses, and you can learn more about them by visiting the Labs page or watching the tutorial video.

Eliminator: This tool was designed to be the easiest handicapping method we offer. Its surprisingly accurate in many situations, extremely easy to use and pretty fun to play with.

Tackle Box: This tool allows you to easily access a lot of data from Angler. Pick from 1 to 3 factors and find out how horses with similar rankings have done in previous races.

Range Finder: A great tool for analyzing races where each horse has a few wins under their belt.  This tool will show you how similar today's race is to past races that the horse won.

Betmix Labs is available to monthly and yearly subscribers.  We hope that you take some time to play with these new tools and that they inspire you to think of new ways to handicap.

Sharp Angles – Dania Beach & Ginger Brew Stakes

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Dania Beach S. and Ginger Brew S.
7.5F on the turf at Gulfstream Park on January 7
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 7.5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 overall qualifying horses; 3 winners (17%, 56.8 ROI%) & 11 total win/place/show (65%, 141 ROI%, $2 place & show flat bet profit)

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2015 Dania Stakes winner Night Prowler ($7)

The stakes-packed January 6 card at Gulfstream Park includes a pair of blacktype events at the unique distance of 7.5 furlongs on the turf. The 15 previous stakes run over this course and distance yield 17 qualifying horses who ranked first in Average of Last E2 Pace. An impressive 65% of those runners have hit the board in this race type. The win percentage of these qualifiers is a little lower that we’d like to see but among the winners is 2015 Dania Beach winner Night Prowler, who paid $7 as the second choice.  It’s also worth noting that a $2 show bet on all of these runners would have resulted in a $14.10 profit.

While that’s all well and good, the real value of this angle appears to be in isolating a horse to key with some confidence in the exotics. Among the other horses in the sample is a 15-1 runner up (She’s Spooky, 2014 Voodoo Dancer S.) and Macone, who completed the trifecta in the 2015 El Prado S. at nearly 13-1.

 

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Power Alert the $3.60 winner of the Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs

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Sharp Angles – Turf Dash Stakes

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Turf Dash S. on December 31
5F on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs
Races Analyzed: 9 turf stakes at 5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (44%, 626 ROI% & $94 flat bet profit/$2) & 6 total win/place/show (66%, 313 ROI%)

The $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday may not be the most talked about race this New Year’s weekend, but it just might be the most attractive contest from a wagering perspective.

Horse racing at Tampa Bay Downs 2012 - 2013 season. @Al Messerschmidt 727 938 2442

It’s not a complete shock to find that early speed does well in 5 furlong races of any kind. But part of the power of Betmix is to parse the data with tremendous objective clarity. In this case we know that four of the past nine (44%) turf stakes run at this distance over the Tampa lawn have been won by the horse ranking first in Last E1 Pace (the fastest horse in the early part of the race). What Betmix Angler users also know is that these contenders have largely been ignored at the betting windows by the general public, going off at an average of over 14-1 odds. All four of the winners have paid double digits, including the most recent winner of this race, Fast Flying Rumor ($24.80) and the $63 winner Double Secret (2015 Lightning City Stakes).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Danzatrice ($8.40) & Include Betty both qualified, they ran 1-2 for a $17.80 exacta

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Sharp Angles – Tiffany Lass Stakes

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Tiffany Lass S.
8.32F on the dirt at Fair Grounds
Races Analyzed: 10 dirt stakes for fillies & mares from 8-8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 16 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (25%, 42.2 ROI%) & 12 win or place (75%, 115 ROI%)

belive-youThe four winners haven’t paid much, averaging less than even money, actually. 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can is largely responsible for the less-than-inspiring payouts, having won both the 2013 Tiffany Lass (when it was run in February) and the subsequent New Orleans Ladies S. at super-low odds. But with 75% of the qualifiers impacting the exacta Last Purse Rank appears to be the best place to start when handicapping these middle distance distaff stakes at Fair Grounds. This angle has also pointed to a pair of well-paying second-place finishers in 36-1 Private Promise and 8-1 Forest Lake.

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Dearest, 1st in Sugar Swirl S at 1.50-1 (defeating odds-on fave Stonetastic)

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