All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angle – San Diego H.

San Diego H. (G2)
8.5F on Dirt (July 29)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 25 8.5F graded dirt stakes at Del Mar.
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 13 winners (44%, $30.20 Win Return, 152 ROI%), 17 Place/Show (58%, $4.30 Place Return), 21 Show (72%)

Saturday's San Diego H. is the main prep for the Grade 1 Pacific Classic later in the Del Mar meeting and this year's edition has plenty of stand alone intrigued. A big field of 10, including many of the top West Coast older males, is set to break from the gate.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world's most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Avg. Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has pointed to 44% winners of this race while generating a $30.20 Win Return. The 72% Show figure also indicates that this factor is a great place to start when playing this race at the windows or on Xpressbet.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angle – Haskell Inv.

Haskell S. (G1)
9F on Dirt (July 22)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 editions of the Haskell Inv.
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 6 winners (40%, $17.40 Win Return, 158 ROI%), 8 Place/Show (53%, $6.50 Place Return)

Saturday's Haskell Stakes has drawn a typically fascinating field of 8 sophomores including the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. And neither may be the favorite with the unbeaten Bob Baffert sensation Arabian Knight also in the starting gate.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world's most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Best Lifetime Speed handicapping factor has pointed to 40% winners of this race while generating a $17.40 Win Return. The sample includes the double-digit winners Girvin ($20.40) and Bayern ($11.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Lifetime Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angle – Sanford S.

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 22 6-furlong graded dirt stakes for 2-year-olds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Year
Factor Stats: 32 contenders, 7 winners (21%, $30.80 Win Return, 148 ROI%), 11 Place (34$, $13.20 Place Return) 13 Show (40%)

Here we go! The first Saturday of the Saratoga meeting features a trio of graded stakes, including the historic Sanford for juvenile colts. A large and competitive field of 10 is set to face the starter so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some insights.

The world's most powerful online handicapping database tells us that the Jockey This Year handicapping factor has pointed to 21% winners of this race type while generating a $30.80 Win Return and a $13.20 Place Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angle – Indiana Derby & Indiana Oaks

8.5F on Dirt (July 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 Horseshoe Indy graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $25.80 Win Return, 164 ROI%), 12 Place (60%, $15.80 Place Return), 15 Show (75%, $7.50 Show Return)

Horseshoe Indianapolis will host its biggest card of the season on Saturday. Horseplayers will be challenged by a total of 8 stakes races, including the graded Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks for sophomores going a mile and one sixteenth on the main track.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has pointed 40% winners of this race type while generating a healthy $25.80 Win Return. Among the winners are a pair of Derby winners and 6 Oaks heroines.

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Sharp Angle – Delaware Oaks

Delaware Oaks (G3) at Delaware Park
8.5F on Dirt (July 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 18 Delaware Park graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Race Class
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $85.60 Win Return, 247 ROI%), 12 Place (41%), 14 Show (48%, $54.30 Show Return)

Saturday´s co-feature at historic Delaware Park is the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks that has brought together a diverse and competitive field of 10 sophomore fillies.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last Race Class handicapping factor has pointed 27% winners in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at the Stanton, Delaware oval.

This group includes Calamity Kate who exited the 2015 Grade 1 Acorn Stakes to capture the Del Oaks at a whopping $110.80 win mutuel. Last year's Oaks heroine, Midnight Stroll ($7.20) also ranked first in this factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Race Class slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angle – Ohio Derby

Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown
9F on Dirt (June 24)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 6 runnings of the Ohio Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 6 contenders, 3 winners (50%, $30.20 Win Return, 351 ROI%), 4 Place/Show (66%, $7.80 Place Return, $2.20 Show Return)

Saturday's Grade 3 Ohio Derby kicks of the "second season" for the 3-year-old division. A field of 8 lines up for the $500,000 race, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil´s.

With Two Phil´s the likely heavy fave, handicappers will first have to decide if he´s a legitimate standout or is he worth taking a stand against.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor has pointed to half of the last 6 Ohio Derby champions. This group includes Dean Martini, who rewarded his backers with a $31.20 Win mutuel in 2020.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angle – Salvator Mile

Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park
8F on Dirt (June 117)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 11 one mile graded dirt stakes at Monmouth Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 2 winners (18%, $144.80 Win Return, 758 ROI%), 5 Place (45%), 6 Show (54%)

Saturday's Salvator Mile is one of four Stakes on the Haskell Preview Day card at Monmouth Park and the race has drawn a competitive field of 10.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one-mile graded dirt stakes at the Jersey Shore are relatively rare - just 11 such contests have carded since 2012.

But Angler also reveals that the Last Late Pace handicapping actor has pointed to two recent Salvator Mile champs, one favorite and one huge longshot. Sunny Ridge got the money in 2019 paying just $5.20 while Informative lit up the tote board two years later, paying a whopping $161.60!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Belmont Stakes Pedigree Handicapping

Tapit Shoes
Tapit - Awesome Flower by Flower Alley
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.62F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 456 Starts, 73 Wins, 16%
Progeny at 10F/+: 397 Starts, 48 Wins, 12%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, Essential Quality (12F/Dirt)

The first of two colts by Belmont Stakes king Tapit. It´s no secret that the great Tapit is the sire of a quartet of Belmont Stakes winners and Tapit Shoes is a also a half-brother to 2022 G1 Arkansas Derby and G1 Haskell Inv. (both at 9F) winner Cyberknife. His dam, Awesome Flower, was best up to a mile and is by the Distorted Humor son Flower Alley, a Travers winner whose best moment at stud came when his son I'll Have Another won the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Tapit Shoes gets another stamina boost from his second damsire, Awesome Again.

Tapit Trice 
Tapit - Danzatrice by Dunkirk
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.62F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 456 Starts, 73 Wins, 16%
Progeny at 10F/+: 397 Starts, 48 Wins, 12%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit (12F/Dirt)

Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice cost $1.3 million yearling and will be a much lower price than Tapit Shoes to deliver his legendary sire a fifth Belmont Stakes winner. His dam, Danzatrice, was a 3x Stakes winner/G3-placed at 8.5F and is a half-sister to 2018 G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award Champion Jaywalk. Danzatrice is a daughter of the well-bred Unbrided's Song son Dunkirk, runner-up to Summer Bird in the 2009 Belmont. Dunkirk is out of the Kentucky Oaks-winning A. P. Indy dam Secret Status so Tapit Trice´s pedigree shows duplications of both Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Tapit´s damsire) and A. P. Indy, the 1992 Belmont Stakes champion.

Arcangelo
Arrogate - Modeling by Tapit
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 17 Starts, 6 Wins, 35.29%
Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starters, 2 Wins, 7.14%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Bold Looker, 2nd in 12F Allowance

As a son of the late, great Unbridled's Song son Arrogate out of a Tapit mare, Arcangelo also shows a duplication of Unbridled in his pedigree (Deputy Minister as well). Arrogate is best known for his stunning victories in the Travers, Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup, all at 10F, and last year's G1 Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Oath the headliner for his abbreviated stallion career. Arcangelo´s dam is by Tapit and she was sold at auction for $2.8 million even though she never made it to the races. Her hefty price tag is because she hails from one of the truly great female families in the stud book. Most relevant here is the fact that she's a granddaughter of Better Than Honor, dam of not one, but two Belmont winners - Jazil in 2006 and Rags To Riches, the filly who beat the boys in the following year.

National Treasure
Quality Road - Treasure by Medaglia d'Oro
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.42F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 222 Starts, 36 Wins, 16.22%
Progeny at 10F/+: 164 Starts, 21 Wins, 12.80%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Spring Quality, 3rd G1 Sword Dancer (12F, Turf)

The Preakness winner is by Quality Road, a great grandson of the speedy and gritty Woody Stephens trainee Gone West (6th in the 1987 Belmont to Bet Twice), who has emerged as one of the top stallions in North America. National Treasure is Quality Road's 15th Grade 1 winner from his first 9 crops and he's out a mare by the Sadler's Wells grandson Medaglia d'Oro. His second dam slants back toward speed as she's by the salty mid-80's sprinter Mt. Livermore, sire of a pair of Eclipse Champion sprinters (Housebuster and Orientate).

Il Miracolo
Gun Runner - Tapit's World by Tapit
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.28F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 19 Starts, 4 Wins, 21.05%
Progeny at 10F/+: 21 Starts, 1 Win, 4.76%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Red Run, 2nd Isaac Murphy S. (12F, Dirt)

Il Miracolo is one of two Belmont starters by young super sire Gun Runner, who ran 3rd to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Derby before blossoming into a Horse of the Year, future Hall of Famer and earner of nearly $16 million (2nd only to Arrogate among North American-based runners). Gun Runner is already the sire 6 G1 winners, including a Classic winner in 2022 Preakness hero Early Voting. He has an exceptional record with Tapit mares too as 8 of his 23 starters on this cross have earned blacktype, a 34% strike rate. Those include 2022 G1 Cotillion winner Society and another Belmont hopeful in SW/MGSP Red Route One. Il Miracolo's dam, Tapit´s World was Graded-placed in her racing days, falling a neck short to Grade 1 winner Molly Morgan in the Gardenia S. (G3) going a flat mile. She in turn is a daughter of Higher Ground, winner of the Mazarine S. (G3) at 2 over 8.5F.

Forte
Violence - Queen Caroline by Blame
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 92 Starts, 14 Wins, 15.22%
Progeny at 10F/+: 22 Starts, 2 Wins, 9.09%
Best progeny finish:at 12F/+: Rumor of Violence, 1st Maiden Special (12F, Turf)

Likely favorite Forte is by the Hill ´n´Dale Farms stallion Violence, a precocious son of Medaglia d'Oro. Violence was a 2YO debut winner going 6F at Saratoga, with future Derby champ Orb back in 3rd. He remained unbeaten that season with subsequent wins in the G2 Nashua S. going a mile and the G1 CashCall Futurity at 8.5F. One of the early faves for the 2013 Classics, Violence started only once at 3, a runner-up showing to none other than Orb in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Forte is his 4th G1 winner and first around 2 turns We can also see from his below 7F progeny Average Winning Distance that 12F is especially rare territory for the Violence runners. Forte´s dam, Queen Caroline, was a 4x Stakes winner on turf at 8 and 8.5F and earned over $400,000. Her sire, Blame, is best known for handing Zenyatta her lone career defeat in the 2010 G1 Breeders´ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He hails from the distance-oriented sire line of Roberto, through Kris S. and Arch, and is considered one of the rising young broodmare sires.

Hit Show
Candy Ride - Actress - Tapit
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 237 Starts, 51 Wins, 21.52%
Progeny at 10F/+: 170 Starts, 20 Wins, 11.76%
Best progeny finish:at 12F/+: Texting, G3 La Prevoyante (12F, Turf)

Before he developed into one of North America´s leading sires, the unbeaten Candy Ride was a champion miler in his native Argentina before an abbreviated but brilliant 3-race campaign in North America culminating with a sensational victory in the 10F G1 Pacific Classic over Medaglia d´Oro. Hit Show is among Candy Ride´s 5 SWs from just 25 starters out of mares by Tapit, a 20% strike rate. His dam, Actress, was a graded SW at 7F who also captured the G2 8.5F Black-Eyed Susan. Her dam was a champion in Canada while also placing in the 10F Queen's Plate (vs. males) and in the G1 10F Alabama.

Angel of Empire
Classic Empire - Armony´s Angel by To Honor and Serve
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.82
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 27 Starts, 7 Wins, 25.93%
Progeny at 10F/+: 6 Starts, 0 Wins
Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 0 Starts

Angel of Empire hails from the second crop by Classic Empire, a son Pioneerof the Nile, who is best known as the sire of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. Angel of Empire's dam, Armory´s Angel, was winless in 8 starts and is a half-sister to GSW miler Conquest Big E. Armory´s Angel is a daughter of the Bernardini son To Honor and Serve, a failed sire who whose signature victory on track came in the 2012 G1 Woodward at 9F over Mucho Macho Man. Angel of Empire's pedigree shows duplications of 1978 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew (5x5) and Miswaki at 4x5. The latter pattern is showing up in more and more in top class European pedigrees, including on the page of last year's G1 12F Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Alpinista.

Red Route One
Gun Runner - Red House by Tapit
All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.42F
Betmix Angler Sire Stats
Progeny on Belmont dirt: 19 Starts, 4 Wins, 21.05%
Progeny at 10F/+: 21 Starts, 1 Win, 4.76%
Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Red Run, 2nd Isaac Murphy S. (12F, Dirt)

The second son of Gun Runner in this year's Test of the Champion is more accomplished on the track and his pedigree is more proven at the 12F distance. He´s a full brother to Red Run, who will try to improve on his runner-up finish in the 12F Isaac Murphy S. in the 12F Brooklyn S. (G2) on the Belmont undercard. Their dam, the unraced Red House, is not only by Tapit but she's out of a daughter of the Kris S. son Prized, who beat Sunday Silence on dirt before springing the upset in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf at 12F (and subsequently winning the G1 San Juan Capistrano at 14F).

Sharp Angle – Belle Mahone S.

Belle Mahone S. (G3) at Woodbine
8.5F on All Weather (June 3, 2023)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 83 Woodbine main track graded stakes at 8.5F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win %
Factor Stats: 86 contenders, 26 winners (30%, $43.50 Win Return, 125 ROI%), 40 Place (46%), 54 Show (63%)

Moira makes her 2023 debut in Saturday's G3 Belle Mahone S. at Woodbine and the reigning Canadian Horse of the Year figures to take attract the bulk of support at the windows. But is she vulnerable?

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database, that holds data for the past 80+ 8.5F graded stakes on the Woodbine main track, for some insights.

Angler tells us that Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win % has pointed to 30% winners of this race type and that those winners have generated a very healthy $43.50 Win Return.

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Sharp Angle – Triple Bend S.

Triple Bend S. (G2) at Santa Anita
7F on Dirt (May 27, 2023)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 79 graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 95 contenders, 34 winners (35%, $58.40 Win Return, 130 ROI%), 48 Place (50%), 60 Show (63%)

The Triple Bend Stakes is one of two Stakes on the Saturday card at Santa Anita and one of eight big ones over Memorial Day weekend at The Great Race Place.

A field of seven salty sprinters has been drawn for the race that honors the former world record-holder at the 7 furlong distance (1:19.4) so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help.

Angler tells us that Best Speed Last 3 has pointed to 35% winners in these 7 furlong graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita and that those winners have generated a very healthy $58.40 Win Return.

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