Back in 1971, Canonero II shipped up from Venezuela to shock the racing world by winning the Kentucky Derby in his very first North American start. The connections of Lani, winner of the March 26 U. A. E. Derby (G2), will try to pull off a similar feat.

Lani was a two-time winner in his native Japan, including a listed stakes victory, before his lucrative score in the Meydan twilight.

In the Derby the colt stumbled badly at the start and fell back to last in the early running. Under the expert and patient guidance of star Japanese rider Yutaka Take, Lani was allowed settle and regained contact with the field midway up the backstretch. By the time they were mid-way around the final turn Lani was contending for the lead as if the incident never happened. However, when Lani reached the eighth pole he was under a hard drive and it looked like he might not have enough left to get past leader Yu Change. But then the script flipped again. Yu Change tired. Lani surged past that rival with enough energy to hold the late-running filly Polar River at bay by less than a length.

Kudos to the grey for overcoming a disastrous start and winning a 1 3/16 dirt race in a foreign land. He'll enter the Kentucky Derby having successfully run the farthest of any of his 19 competitors. And his pedigree is certainly suited for a Triple Crown run being by America's sire sensation Tapit out of a daughter of 1989 Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. His next two dams are by Sadler's Wells and Ribot, sire of several Classic winners each around the world.

But that's where the positives end for Lani. His stretch run on Saturday was not visually impressive and the estimated Beyer Speed Figure came in a lowly 83. The field for this year's $2 million event looked particularly weak as there were no grade/group 1 performers in the mix and only two of the entrants were winners at grade/group level when the gates opened. And then there's the colt's temperament. Like many Tapits he apparently has his personality quirks His trainer Mikio Matsunaga said after the race:

“The Meydan staff has been very kind to us, allowing us to take the best care of Lani as possible. He can be very troublesome so we really appreciated the allowances given to us by the track staff [who allowed him to be saddled away from the crowds].”

There will likely be no such accommodations made at Churchill Downs where a raucous crowd of 150,000 or so will gather on the first Saturday in May.

The last foreign-based horse to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby was Bold Arrangement who was second to Ferdinand in 1986 (after prepping first in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland). Lani has even more history against him as the U. A. E. Derby winner has yet to hit to the board in a U. S. Triple Crown race. Here's breakdown of their finishes:

2000 - China Visit: 6th Kentucky Derby

2001 - Express Tour: 8th Kentucky Derby

2002 - Essence of Dubai: 9th in Kentucky Derby, 6th Belmont Stakes

2009 - Regal Ransom: 8th Kentucky Derby

2012 - Daddy Long Legs: DNF Kentucky Derby

2013 - Lines of Battle: 7th Kentucky Derby

2014 - Toast of New York: 6th Belmont Stakes

2015 - Mubtaahij: 8th Kentucky Derby, 4th Belmont Stakes

Should Lani wear the roses he wouldn't be quite the upset that Canonero II was 45 years ago but he does have much overcome.

In classical mythology Cupid is the god of desire and the son of the war god Mars and the love goddess Venus. In the modern thoroughbred world Cupid is the Rebel Stakes (G2) winner and the son of all-world sire Tapit and the exceptional broodmare Pretty 'n Smart. The contemporary legend also stars Bob Baffert, who is virtually unconquerable when he flies into Oaklawn Park.

Expectations for the equine Cupid were high before he was even born on May 19, 2013. His sire, Tapit, had already risen to six-figure status when Cupid was conceived in 2012 and he's now a record-setting two-time champion sire (and running away with another title so far in 2016). His dam had already produced a pair of graded stakes winners when she visited Tapit's court. Cupid was Hip #160 at the 2014 Keeneland September Yearling sale and the Coolmore partnership of Derick Smith, Michael Tabor and John Magnier won the bidding war that ended with their $900,000 salvo. By that time there was yet another stakes winner on Cupid's catalog page - Indianapolis, his half-brother by Medaglia d'Oro, who had scored in the San Pedro Stakes earlier that year at Santa Anita.

The Coolmore boys haven't placed many horses with trainer Bob Baffert over the years. So it's safe to assume they were immediately thinking 'Classics' by sending the gray colt to the white-haired trainer out west. It's also safe to say the ownership group has gotten exactly what they bargained for - a patiently handled springtime graded winner who seems to be peaking at precisely the right time (and who is already well on his way to being a top stallion prospect).

Cupid failed the find the winner's circle at short odds in his first two starts in late 2015 and early 2016, both sprints. But when sent two-turns for the first time on February 7 Cupid dominated an 8.5F Maiden Special at Santa Anita by 5 1/4 lengths. He was reportedly headed to the Sunland Derby before that race was canceled but Plan B worked out rather well with the win in Arkansas.

Talent is not the question with Cupid. What he has to prove now is that he can carry his speed a Classic distance. Pedigree-wise there are some legitimate concerns about this. His dam was a sprinter as were all three of his stakes-winning siblings. His damsire, Beau Genius, was a listed stakes winner at 10F but made his reputation as a tough-as-nails runner who racked up over a million dollars primarily in middle distance blacktype events. Of course, Tapit can sire any kind of runner and he celebrated his first Classic winner just under two years ago when Tonalist scored in the Belmont Stakes. Cupid will also be six days shy of his actual third birthday on the first Saturday in May.

Plan A for Cupid this time is the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 9 back at Oaklawn Park, a stern 9-furlong test. A passing graded means he'll join another Tapit son, Mohaymen, in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Shadwell Farm has an especially strong hand for the 2016 Classics with a pair of unbeaten colts in Mohaymen and Shagaf. However, Randy Gullat's Twin Creeks Racing has been perhaps the most prolific owner/breeder on the Derby trail over the past six years. Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Destin is the latest Triple Crown hopeful to race the Twin Creeks lime and brown silks.

The run began back in 2010 when Mission Impazible won the Louisiana Derby en route to a 9th-place finish in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Twin Creeks was back in force in 2014 with Sam F. Davis S. winner/Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Vinceremos and Florida Derby winner Constitution, both owned in partnership with WinStar Farm. Constitution would miss the Derby with an injury while Vinceremos finished 17th to California Chrome at Churchill. Twin Creeks also bred and sold To Honor and Serve, a serious Derby contender prior to disappointing third-place finishes in the 2011 Fountain of Youth S. and Florida Derby in the colors of Live Oak Plantation.

In 2016 it's Destin, a $400,000 yearling purchase, who's put it all together over the past four weeks with victories in the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

Destin had similar trips in both races. He stalked the early leaders moved to gain the lead the top of the lane and fended off stiff challenges from Rafting (from his outside) in the Sam F. Davis and from the Uncle Mo colt Outwork (to his inside) in the Tampa Derby. Destin set the track record and earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby.

Destin is a full brother to a very high-quality colt, Creative Cause, the best American Classic horse sired so far by Giant's Causeway. Creative Cause was a Grade 1 winner at two and won the San Felipe S. (G2) at three prior to a solid 5th to I'll Have Another in the 2012 Derby. His came back with a third in the subsequent Preakness Stakes (G1) in what was his final career start.

The dam of both colts is Dream of Summer, a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter who stretched her speed to win the 9F Apple Blossom H. (G1) over a field that included Hall of Famer Ashado. Dream of Summer is a daughter of 10F Grade 1 winner Siberian Summer, a son of Siberian Express who's better known as the great grandsire of Uncle Mo.

Destin will attempt to give his owner another Derby trail stakes victory in the Blue Grass S. (G1), Wood Memorial (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1). A win in either would likely make the colt no worse than third choice on the first Saturday in May and put Twin Creeks in its best position yet for a Derby trophy.

It wasn't especially pretty. It wasn't especially fast. But Shagaf got the job done in the Gotham Stakes, giving owner Shadwell Farm a second unbeaten Kentucky Derby prospect.

The big talk among racing observers and handicappers leading up to the Gotham was the extreme inside speed bias on the Aqueduct inner dirt course. Shagaf broke well from post two under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and seemingly could have grabbed the golden rail but Ortiz relented and let a hustling Laoban seize the initiative. Shagaf instead settled into third along the inside before being shuffled back to fourth on the backstretch. Ortiz began to ask Shagaf going into the far turn and shifted to the three path for the stretch run. There was no immediate gain on the leaders, Shagaf was still third at the 1/8 pole, but he eventually wore down the speedy Laoban for a workmanlike victory.

The final time of 1:45.90 is the slowest time since the Gotham was moved to the Aqueduct inner track back in 2006 and the Beyer Speed Figure registered at a subpar 87.

The effort can be looked on a little more favorably after reading the comments of trainer Chad Brown, who wasn't interested in going out to win the Gotham battle and risk a chance at victory in the Triple Crown war.

"He took plenty of dirt in the race, which will hopefully serve him well down the road," Brown said of the Gotham win. "I think he gained a lot of experience, it was only his third start and this horse has done everything we asked him to do. I don't think he could've run any better in any of the three races for what we want him to do. I'm very happy with the result and I'm happy with the education he got".

Shagaf's pedigree certainly suggests continued improvement can be expected, with a peak coming closer to Belmont Stakes time in June, or even later. He's by 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Bernardini, one the eight male ancestors in Shagaf's four generation pedigree to have won a Triple Crown race. Half of those won the Belmont. Like Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Gun Runner, Shagaf is inbred to Fappiano, an influence that's dominated the American Classics scene in recent seasons.

If both Shagaf and Mohaymen make it to the first Saturday in May unbeaten Shadwell Farm will be the first owners with two perfect colts in the Derby starting gate since Roy and Gretchen Jackson started Showing Up and Barbaro in 2006. As we know, one of those runners wore the roses.

After a promising juvenile season Gun Runner was on the shortlist of many Kentucky Derby winter book handicappers. With his victories in the February 20 Risen Star Stakes (G2) and the March 26 Louisiana Derby (G2) the Steve Asmussen-trainee heads to Churchill Downs with very strong credentials.

The colt made his belated 2016 debut in the Risen Star and had to overcome some adversity to get his picture taken. He broke a half-beat slow from post five under Florent Geroux, who then put the hustle on to preserve position going into the first turn. The pair nevertheless found themselves in a five-horse school behind early leader Candy My Boy and pace-presser Bistraya. After bumping with favored Airoforce late in the first turn, Geroux again hit the accelerator when an opening appeared and ranged up to third. He then used some more of Gun Runner's speed to secure the inside from Bistraya before tipping out to pounce on Candy My Boy around the far turn. At the eighth pole he went on by a stubborn Candy My Boy and appeared home free before getting late and allowing 40-1 Forevemo and the tough-luck Mo Tom to add some drama to the finish. The final margin of victory was a half-length.

Risen Star Stakes video:

His victory in the Louisiana Derby was far more facile. Again ridden by Florent Geroux, the colt got a smooth stalking trip along the inside after breaking from the rail. When Geroux saw pacemaker Candy My Boy begin to tire around the far turn he pushed Gun Runner through a seam to the outside of that runner (and inside Uncle Walter). The pair gained command at the top of the long Fair Ground stretch and powered home from there for the 4 1/2-length victory.

Watch the Louisiana Derby

Gun Runner is bred to be a good one and he's been handled by his connections like a colt with big Classics potential all along. He didn't debut until mid-September, a win going a mile at Churchill Downs over the odds-on Gametown (a $675,000 juvenile purchase). In his second start he handled two-turns with a 2-length Allowance victory at 1 1/6 miles before running 4th in the KY Jockey Club behind Airoforce, Mor Spirit and Mo Tom on a sloppy/sealed surface. He's now won all four of his start on dry main tracks.

By the unbeaten Candy Ride out the Giant's Causeway mare Quiet Giant, Gun Runner was co-bred by the prolific owner/breeders Winchell Thoroughbreds, who race the colt in partnership with Three Chimneys Farm. Over the years the Winchell family has bred the likes of Wood Memorial (G1) winner (and sire sensation) Tapit, Eclipse Champion Untapable, Hollywood Futurity (G1) winner Valiant Nature and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Olympio (among many others). Quiet Giant counts the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Stakes among her five blacktype victories and she sold for $3 million at the 2011 Keeneland November sale.

A Classic victory by Gun Runner would be yet another for the Fappiano sire-line that's given us Triple Crown race winners like Unbridled, Grindstone, Real Quiet, Mine That Bird, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Red Bullet and, of course, American Pharoah. Gun Runner's sire, Candy Ride, is by the South American sire Ride the Rails, a son of Fappiano's first Classic runner, Cryptoclearance, who placed in the 1987 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. In fact, Gun Runner is inbred to Fappiano at 4x4.

Gun Runner will seek to become the first Louisiana Derby winner to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May since Grindstone 20 years ago. Grindstone actually made a pitstop in the Arkansas Derby (finishing second) on his way to Louisville.

In the 'old days' Gun Runner might have been disregarded by many Kentucky Derby handicappers for being too lightly raced - just two spring preps and only five career starts. But in 2008 Big Brown won the Derby in his fourth career outing with just an Allowance and Florida Derby victory under his girth that year. Since then five other Derby winners have scored off of a two-race spring regimen - American Pharoah, I'll Have Another (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010) and Mine That Bird (2009).

There is certainly enough quality in Gun Runner's race record (on a fast track), pedigree and human connections for handicappers be extremely bullish on his chances of securing a Classic victory this year.

Never having raced outside of Oklahoma, Suddenbreakingnews was on few handicappers radar prior to the February 15 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Even at the top of the stretch the colt looked like an also ran before unleashing a furious rally to earn his first graded stakes victory.

Suddenbreakingnews has proven a very versatile runner in his first six starts. In his August 28 debut he crossed the wire first in a 7.5F Maiden Special on the grass at Remington Park, only be disqualified to second. Three starts later he won the 7F Clever Trevor Stakes on the main track. Next out, he handled a sloppy course just fine in the $250,000 Springboard Mile, dropping a nose decision to subsequent Smarty Jones Stakes winner Discreetness (with the highly-touted California invader Esposito in third).

His Southwest victory was not only a rich payday but a good learning experience too. Expertly handled by regular rider Luis Quinonez, Suddenbreakingnews was immediately wrangled to the back of the pack after breaking from post 13. In the process he was bombarded by dirt going into the first turn. Seemingly being bothered by the kickback initially, he settled down nicely and willing passed horses when Quinonez gave his cue. That kind of experience that will come in hand in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby scrum.

Still last of 14 with a half-mile to go, Quinonez left nothing to chance by swinging his mount seven-wide turning for home and Suddenbreakingews mowed them down from there.

The colt's trainer, Donnie K. Von Hemel, would certainly be a welcome addition to the Triple Crown scene. He's earned over 2,000 wins in relative obscurity on the midwest circuit but has made the occasional foray on to the national stage with runners like millionaire Clever Trevor (13th in Sunday Silence's 1989 Derby) and 2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile victor Caleb's Posse.

Suddenbreakingnews has the running style and the pedigree to suggest that longer distances are well within his reach. He's by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, a son of Belmont Stakes hero A. P. Indy and grandson of 1978 Triple Crown conquerer Seattle Slew. Mineshaft was victorious in a quartet of Grade 1 races in his championship season, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap at 10 furlongs. He's been a hit-and-miss stallion with 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In and the late-developing Grade 1 winner Effinex, runner-up to American Pharoah in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, among his 'hits'.

The dam of Suddenbreakingnews, Uchitel, never found the winner's circle in three starts but is by 2005 Preakness/Belmont champ Afleet Alex from an active female family. She's a sister to Grade 1 winner Composure, dam of recent Royal Delta Stakes (G2) winner Penwith.

Suddenbreakingnews can't yet be put in to the top tier of Derby contenders currently occupied by Mohaymen, Nyquist and Mor Spirit. But it won't be a surprise to find him in some Triple Crown race trifectas, at the very least.

Astute Kentucky Derby handicappers often look past flashy early spring performances, instead preferring horses ready to peak on the first Saturday in May. Mor Spirit is firmly on the radar of those players.

The colt first made news in early March of 2015 when he commanded a $650,000 price at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Two-Year-Old in Training sale. That figure was the eighth highest at North America's most prestigious juvenile sale.

He made his racing debut on September 27 with a second place run in a 6.5F Maiden Special at Santa Anita. Graduation day came a month later when stretched out to a mile and he's faced nothing but stakes company since.

The dark bay ran second to Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), defeating eventual LeComte Stakes hero Mo Tom by a head. He then returned to California to win the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and the February 6 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

In the Los Al race he was rank, fighting Gary Steven for his head in the early stages before settling down and surging past the sprinter Toews on Ice for the win. In the Lewis, he rated like a gentleman in third, tracking the early leaders. Even when stablemate Let's Meet in Rio rushed up along his inside on the backstretch he waited for Stevens' cue. That cue didn't come until after the eighth pole after which he drove past Uncle Lino and previously unbeaten I Will Score to get the money. He continued running well throughout the spring, passing Exaggerator to get second money versus the runaway winner Danzig Candy. In the Santa Anita Derby he again rallied for second over a sloppy surface he clearly did not appreciate.

A son of the Giant's Causeway stallion Eskendereya (now in South Korea), Mor Sprit doesn't 'wow' with an explosive turn of foot. He simply wears opponents down with long consistent strides. According to his trainer, Bob Baffert, and rider, Gary Stevens, he still may need to develop a 'killer instinct' too.

“He has that long stride, but in the mornings, he’s not a very good work horse. He’s sort of lazy," Baffert told reporters after the Lewis. "He needs a target and when he gets a target, he shuts it down, but today was perfect."

"Every time we step forward I hope I can find the bottom . . . but I don’t want to find the bottom of him until it’s time," added Stevens. "I haven’t got close to that yet and that’s a good feeling. He seems to just do just enough for what’s in front of him; he likes a target. I think as he faces better horses, he’ll only get better.”

Mor Spirit couldn't be in more expert hands to continue both his mental and physical development throughout the spring. Hall of Famer Baffert has guided a quartet of colts to the Kentucky Derby winners circle. All four came back in two weeks to win the Preakness and three of them fired their best shots in the Belmont Stakes too with War Emblem the lone exception. Stevens also has a plaque in the Hall of Fame and it has three Derby victories etched on it - Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995) and the Baffert-trained Silver Charm in 1997.

Mor Spirit reminds one of Real Quiet, a tough and consistent customer who emerged from the shadow of stablemate Indian Charlie to score in the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bettors who remain on the Mor Spirit bandwagon will be handsomely rewarded should he wear the roses.