Category Archives: Handicapping Blog
Sharp Angles – Tropical Park Derby & Oaks
Tropical Park Derby & Tropical Park Oaks.
8.5F on Turf (December 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 46 Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3YOs at 8 & 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 12 winners (26.7%, $48.20 flat win bet profit, 153 ROI%)
Sophomore turfers get one last chance for a blacktype win against their own age group in Saturday’s Tropical Park Derby and Tropical Park Oaks. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze middle distance Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3-year-olds we find an emerging Angle for this race type. Average Turf Earnings pointed to the double digit winners of both these contests last year - Giant Surprise, winner of the Derby at 8.90-1 and Ultra Brat who lit up the tote board in the Oaks at $36.70-1. The trend continued into 2017 with odds-on Adorable Miss taking the July 4 Martha Washington Stakes.
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Pedigree Handicapping – 2017 Stakes Sires
The stallions at the top the Blood-Horse General Sire are typically there because they consistently sire winners of North America's richest stakes races. This is certainly a useful snapshot for breeders. But what about bettors?
Using the Sire filter in Betmix Angler we can find out. We looked at all the stakes starters by the top 15 General Sires and the chart below shows the results. Medaglia d'Oro's stakes runners have produced a huge win bet return buoyed by his two big Breeders' Cup champions, Filly & Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold ($135.40) and Turf winner Talismatic ($30.20). Even outside of those two runners the Darley stallion was a boon for thoroughbred handicappers. He had two other $30-plus stakes winners and the 26.14% win percentage by his 2017 stakes starters is second only to Ghostzapper's 27.78%.
Sharp Angles – Springboard Mile & Trapeze S.
Springboard Mile S. & Trapeze S.
8F on Dirt (December 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 Remington Park two-year-old Stakes at 8F
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 2 winners (20%, $50.60 flat win bet profit, 268 ROI%), 8 win/place/show (53%, $34.10 place bet profit, $7.10 show bet profit).
Remington Park has invested in its late season juvenile Stakes in recent years, a move that's paid big dividends. Sunday's $400,000 Springboard Mile S. has not only drawn a full and competitive field of 12 from around the country, the race has also been anointed an official points race for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Runners proven at the Springboard's 8 furlong distance have been profitable to bettors over the past four years with a $50.60 flat win bet profit posted by contenders ranking first in Speed This Distance. Over 50% of the qualifiers have hit the board while showing healthy place and show profits as well.
This Sharp Angle can also be applied to the Springboard's sister race, the $100,000 Trapeze S. on the same Sunday card in Oklahoma.
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Pedigree Handicapping – Turf Sires
In our first couple Pedigree Handicapping posts we focused on the wagering prospects of runners by the leading First Crop and overall Juvenile sires in North America. This time we shift our focus to turf sires.
Our starting point is the list of top 15 North American sires of turf starters in 2017. Surprisingly, only one of these stallions shows a profit of any kind with their 2017 grass runners. That sire is Coolmore's Giant's Causeway. A $2 win bet on all of his turf starters in 2017 has yielded a profit of $165.90. Five of his highest-priced winners have come in claiming races this year, including a $101 winner in a $20,000 claimer last June at Delaware Park and the $96.40 winner Madeyourpoint, who ran for a $16,000 tag at Laurel on November 4.
To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.
Pedigree Handicapping – Profitable Juvenile Sires
In our last Pedigree Handicapping post we highlighted the Betmix Angler Sires feature and examined the ROI of runners by the Top 15 First Crop sires. This time we take a look at the Top 15 overall North American juvenile sires.
The juvenile progeny of Canadian stallion Silent Name have been very kind to win bettors in 2017 with a nearly $50 win ROI. Two-year-old runners by the late Kentucky sire Exchange Rate certainly merit extra consideration as well. They've collectively shown double-digit ROI's across the board in 2017.
This chart shows the return on all North American juvenile starters sired by the Top 15 juvenile sires (according to bloodhorse.com) through November 21.
To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.
Pedigree Handicapping – Profitable First Crop Sires
Sire statistics are a lesser-known feature within Betmix Angler and lesser known information can be a boon to thoroughbred handicappers. In the future, we'll be taking a more detailed look at how this unique info can be parsed and applied. Today we examine the early performance of North America's newest sires. Looking at the Top 15 Freshman sires (according to Bloodhorse.com) we find that three have shown a ($2) flat win bet profit on all their starters so far - New Year's Day, Animal Kingdom and Point of Entry. It may be wise to pay particular attention to runners by these stallions over the next few months. Point of Entry runners have been especially profitable with big place and show returns as well.
This chart shows the return on all North American starters sired by the Top 15 Freshman stallion through November 16.
To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.
Sharp Angles – Jammed Lovely S.
Jammed Lovely S.
7F on All-Weather (November 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 13 filly & mare stakes Woodbine stakes going 7F on all-weather
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Speed Race
Factor Stats: 16 contenders, 8 winners (50%, $23.90 flat win bet profit, 174 ROI%), 12 win/place/show ($75%, $13.40 place bet profit, $5.50 show bet profit).
The 2017 Woodbine racing season is winding down but there are still opportunities for horsemen and bettor alike to cash in. The $100,000 Jammed Lovely Stakes drew just six competitors and will likely have a short-priced favorite to contend with. It's helps to have extra certainty when deciding to play or stand against the public choice in these wagering scenarios. This week's Sharp Angles can certainly help as it's pointed to 50% winners in this specific racetype - 7 furlong stakes restricted to fillies and mares.
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Betmix Angler Breeders’ Cup Picks
We took a look at the last 4 years worth of Breeders' Cup races in Angler to see what factors and rankings were common among winners. The goal was to narrow down the contenders in each race to those that match the profile of previous winners.
Four years is a small sample, but that's all we have to work with!
For Each Breeders' Cup race we list the factors that applied to every previous winner in each race type, show you which horses are ranked in those factors and then which horses qualify this year.
Here is an example, using the BC Classic:
Looking at the past 4 BC Classic races, every winner was ranked in the Top 4 for Avg E2 Pace, in the Top 4 for In the Money % and Top 5 in Speed Last Race.
This year 3 horses qualify in every factor: Gun Runner, Arrogate, and West Coast.
That is not a surprise, as those 3 horses are probably the three favorites in the race.
It is also useful to look at the horses that are ranked highly in several of the factors, but didn't qualify in every one. Those are also logical horses to bet as well...
In some cases you will notice that the factor is limited to being ranked in the top 5, but we are showing more than 5 horses. This is because of ties, and in some cases a horse may have missed the cut by a very small fraction, so we also included them.
Breeders' Cup is always tough, almost every horse in each race has a legitimate chance of winning. This information should help you narrow down the fields and put you on some logical contenders that you might not have considered.
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Sharp Angles – Twilight Derby
Twilight Derby S. (G2)
9F on turf (October 28)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 22 3yo stakes on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Speed
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 11 winners (38%, $11.60 flat win bet profit, 120 ROI%), 23 win/place/show (79%, $9.50.40 place bet profit & $14.00 show bet profit).
The late, great Tom Petty sang that 'the waiting is the hardest part' and the waiting for next week's Breeders' Cup is no exception. One remedy is to cash some tickets and this week's Sharp Angle looks especially solid for the October 28 Twilight Derby. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the past 22 grass stakes for three-year-olds at Santa Anita we find that Speed Last Race has pointed to the winners of half these contests. Even more impressive is the fact that nearly 80% of the 29 total contenders have hit the board. This sample includes two of the past three Twilight Derby victors - Om ($3.00) in 2015 and Long on Value ($25.00) the year prior.
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