Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Betmix Labs

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We spend most of our time at Betmix working on new handicapping tools.

We get an idea, or a customer presents an idea to us, and we start developing. Most of the time we end up with something pretty nice like BirdDog or Angler. Sometimes we "rip up our tickets" and start over.

In many cases we develop tools that are really cool, but maybe only truly useful in certain situations or for certain types of handicappers.

Rather than keeping those tools on the shelf, we have created a page called Betmix Labs. On this page you can experiment with some of the pretty neat tools we have created over the last year that have only been available "in house".

Each of these tools have strengths and weaknesses, and you can learn more about them by visiting the Labs page or watching the tutorial video.

Eliminator: This tool was designed to be the easiest handicapping method we offer. Its surprisingly accurate in many situations, extremely easy to use and pretty fun to play with.

Tackle Box: This tool allows you to easily access a lot of data from Angler. Pick from 1 to 3 factors and find out how horses with similar rankings have done in previous races.

Range Finder: A great tool for analyzing races where each horse has a few wins under their belt.  This tool will show you how similar today's race is to past races that the horse won.

Betmix Labs is available to monthly and yearly subscribers.  We hope that you take some time to play with these new tools and that they inspire you to think of new ways to handicap.

Sharp Angles – Dania Beach & Ginger Brew Stakes

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Dania Beach S. and Ginger Brew S.
7.5F on the turf at Gulfstream Park on January 7
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 7.5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 overall qualifying horses; 3 winners (17%, 56.8 ROI%) & 11 total win/place/show (65%, 141 ROI%, $2 place & show flat bet profit)

night_prowler_dania_beach_615x400_orig

2015 Dania Stakes winner Night Prowler ($7)

The stakes-packed January 6 card at Gulfstream Park includes a pair of blacktype events at the unique distance of 7.5 furlongs on the turf. The 15 previous stakes run over this course and distance yield 17 qualifying horses who ranked first in Average of Last E2 Pace. An impressive 65% of those runners have hit the board in this race type. The win percentage of these qualifiers is a little lower that we’d like to see but among the winners is 2015 Dania Beach winner Night Prowler, who paid $7 as the second choice.  It’s also worth noting that a $2 show bet on all of these runners would have resulted in a $14.10 profit.

While that’s all well and good, the real value of this angle appears to be in isolating a horse to key with some confidence in the exotics. Among the other horses in the sample is a 15-1 runner up (She’s Spooky, 2014 Voodoo Dancer S.) and Macone, who completed the trifecta in the 2015 El Prado S. at nearly 13-1.

 

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Power Alert the $3.60 winner of the Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs

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Sharp Angles – Turf Dash Stakes

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Turf Dash S. on December 31
5F on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs
Races Analyzed: 9 turf stakes at 5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (44%, 626 ROI% & $94 flat bet profit/$2) & 6 total win/place/show (66%, 313 ROI%)

The $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday may not be the most talked about race this New Year’s weekend, but it just might be the most attractive contest from a wagering perspective.

Horse racing at Tampa Bay Downs 2012 - 2013 season. @Al Messerschmidt 727 938 2442

It’s not a complete shock to find that early speed does well in 5 furlong races of any kind. But part of the power of Betmix is to parse the data with tremendous objective clarity. In this case we know that four of the past nine (44%) turf stakes run at this distance over the Tampa lawn have been won by the horse ranking first in Last E1 Pace (the fastest horse in the early part of the race). What Betmix Angler users also know is that these contenders have largely been ignored at the betting windows by the general public, going off at an average of over 14-1 odds. All four of the winners have paid double digits, including the most recent winner of this race, Fast Flying Rumor ($24.80) and the $63 winner Double Secret (2015 Lightning City Stakes).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Danzatrice ($8.40) & Include Betty both qualified, they ran 1-2 for a $17.80 exacta

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Sharp Angles – Tiffany Lass Stakes

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Tiffany Lass S.
8.32F on the dirt at Fair Grounds
Races Analyzed: 10 dirt stakes for fillies & mares from 8-8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 16 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (25%, 42.2 ROI%) & 12 win or place (75%, 115 ROI%)

belive-youThe four winners haven’t paid much, averaging less than even money, actually. 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can is largely responsible for the less-than-inspiring payouts, having won both the 2013 Tiffany Lass (when it was run in February) and the subsequent New Orleans Ladies S. at super-low odds. But with 75% of the qualifiers impacting the exacta Last Purse Rank appears to be the best place to start when handicapping these middle distance distaff stakes at Fair Grounds. This angle has also pointed to a pair of well-paying second-place finishers in 36-1 Private Promise and 8-1 Forest Lake.

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Dearest, 1st in Sugar Swirl S at 1.50-1 (defeating odds-on fave Stonetastic)

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Sharp Angles – Sugar Swirl Stakes

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Sugar Swirl S. (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park
Races Analyzed: 14 6F graded dirt races
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 22 overall qualifying horses; 8 winners (36%, 151 ROI%) & 18 on the board (72%, 105 ROI%)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

It’s not uncommon for horses to tie atop a given factor ranking, as is the case here where 22 horses across 14 races ranked first in In the Money %. In this instance, however, the angle has proven profitable over the long term even if multiple horses were bet in the same race. And it’s certainly a great starting point for this race type. A horse ranking first in this category has won 57% of the time and finished in the money nearly three quarters of the time.

It obviously makes sense that horses ranking first in In the Money % would continue to run in the money. But Betmix users have the data that confirms the intuition, data that can lead to more confident wagering.

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Sharp Angles – Saturday Stakes at Laurel

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Howard M. Bender Memorial S.
Willa On the Move S.
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 44 6F dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 10 of 44 races (23%, 102.7 ROI%)
Or: Won/placed in 29 of 44 races (66%, 109.9 ROI%)

laurelThe folks at Laurel are doing their best to help racing fans and horseplayers chase away the winter blues with a four-stakes card on Saturday, December 10. Two of the stakes are for older sprinters going 6 furlongs on the main track - the Howard M. Bender Memorial S. for males and the Willa on the Move S. for the distaffers. As noted above, Trainer/Jockey team success has been a very good predictor in this race type with 66% of the horses ranking first in this factor contributing to the exacta. The 10 winners are pretty evenly distributed between males (6) and females (4) so this angle can be safely applied to both of the Saturday stakes. The angle also has recency on it’s side. Among the winners are a pair of early 2016 stakes winners in Karen’s Silk ($8 winner of the January 16 Marshua S.) and Sweet on Smokey (winner of the January 2 What a Summer S. at a $6.60 mutuel).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Haybusa One, 4th in Hollywood Derby at 4.60-1.

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Sharp Angles – Hollywood Derby

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Hollywood Derby (G1)
9 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar
Races Analyzed: 9 Del Mar G1’s 9 furlongs on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%), 269% ROI

With Hollywood Park now transforming into the home of the Los Angeles Rams, the December 3 Hollywood Derby will be run for the third time over the Del Mar turf course at 9 furlongs. Three of the four winners in this 9 furlong grassy G1 winner sample have paid double digits with 2014 Del Mar Oaks winner Personal Diary (pictured) showing the highest mutuel. That filly paid $20.20 when she crossed the wire first for trainer Victoria Oliver.

personal_diary_del_mar_oaks_2014_615x400_orig

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Sharp Angles – Clark Handicap & Falls City Handicap

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Clark Handicap (G1) & Falls City H. (G2)
9 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs
Races Analyzed: 7 Churchill Downs G1’s for older males at 9 furlongs on the dirt &
18 Churchill Downs Graded races at 9 furlongs on the dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st or 2nd in Speed last Race
Factor Stats: Has won 5 of the 7 Grade 1 races for older males (71%/ROI%-590) or 9 of 18 Graded dirt races (50%/ROI%-766)

effinex-wins-clark-handicap-finish

Effinex over Hoppertunity & Looks to Spare (inside) in 2015 Clark Handicap

Speed Last race has been predictive for the top class older male events under the Twin Spires. Last year’s Clark winner Effinex ($7.40) ranked first in this factor as did 2015 Stephen Foster H. conqueror Noble Bird ($11.40). Three more winners are revealed when setting the Speed Last Race slider to show horses ranking 1st or 2nd. That group includes the 2016 Stephen Foster upsetter Bradester ($20.40) and the 2013 and 2014 Clark winners, Will Take Charge ($6.80) and Hoppertunity ($6.40).

Speed Last Race can also be applied to the G2 Falls City Handicap for fillies & mares, the Thanksgiving Day feature in Louisville. Expanding our analysis to all 9 furlong Graded races on the dirt, we find that half of the 18 races were won by runners ranking 1st or 2nd in Speed Last race for a nifty $106.40 Win ROI. This grouping includes Frivolous, winner of the 2014 Falls City at a $40.80 mutuel. That filly ranked 1st in Speed Last Race.

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Sharp Angles – Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

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Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 41 Laurel stakes races at 6 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 22 of the 41 races (53%) for $127.80 Win ROI

In it’s heyday the DeFrancis Dash was won by champions like Housebuster, Cherokee Run and Smoke Glacken. The race has had it’s ups and down, along with the Maryland racing industry, but has regained graded status for the 2016 edition. Indeed, a very solid field has gathered for Saturday’s running at Laurel. As noted above, over half of the 6F dirt stakes at Laurel have been won by the horse ranked first in Best Speed Last 3. The large Win ROI is due largely to Zee Bros, who scored in the 2014 De Francis for D. Wayne Lukas at 29-1.

zee-bros-de-francis-dash

Zee Bros, the 29-1 winner of the 2014 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

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Sharp Angles – Commonwealth Turf Stakes

Handicapping Blog

After providing some angles for the Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita, we'll continue on looking for angles in weekend stakes races. They're running the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday, November 12 and we found a very nice angle for that contest.

camelotkitten_closeup_2016americanturf

Camelot Kitten (inside) wins American Turf S.

Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)
(8.5 furlongs on the turf at Churchill Downs)
Races Analyzed: 13 Churchill Downs Graded races at 8.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2014 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 13 races (30%) for $108.80 Win ROI

This factor has yielded two very juicy winners in the past calendar year in Camelot Kitten ($39.40), winner of the American Turf on Derby Day this year, and Isabella Sings ($56.60) who scored in the Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill last fall. Both of those winners are straight three-year-olds, as are the runner competing in the Commonwealth Turf.

 

Post Script

The angles presented in the Breeders' Cup Sharp Angles series pointed to a trio of winners on Championship Weekend:

New Money Honey (Ranked 1st In the Money %) won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, paying $15

Beholder (Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3) won the Distaff, paying $8.60

Arrogate (Ranked 1st in Best Last Speed) won the Classic, paying $5.40

The Distaff/Classic double with the two second choices paid $28.40

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