Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Suddenbreakingnews

Never having raced outside of Oklahoma, Suddenbreakingnews was on few handicappers radar prior to the February 15 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Even at the top of the stretch the colt looked like an also ran before unleashing a furious rally to earn his first graded stakes victory.

Suddenbreakingnews has proven a very versatile runner in his first six starts. In his August 28 debut he crossed the wire first in a 7.5F Maiden Special on the grass at Remington Park, only be disqualified to second. Three starts later he won the 7F Clever Trevor Stakes on the main track. Next out, he handled a sloppy course just fine in the $250,000 Springboard Mile, dropping a nose decision to subsequent Smarty Jones Stakes winner Discreetness (with the highly-touted California invader Esposito in third).

His Southwest victory was not only a rich payday but a good learning experience too. Expertly handled by regular rider Luis Quinonez, Suddenbreakingnews was immediately wrangled to the back of the pack after breaking from post 13. In the process he was bombarded by dirt going into the first turn. Seemingly being bothered by the kickback initially, he settled down nicely and willing passed horses when Quinonez gave his cue. That kind of experience that will come in hand in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby scrum.

Still last of 14 with a half-mile to go, Quinonez left nothing to chance by swinging his mount seven-wide turning for home and Suddenbreakingews mowed them down from there.

The colt's trainer, Donnie K. Von Hemel, would certainly be a welcome addition to the Triple Crown scene. He's earned over 2,000 wins in relative obscurity on the midwest circuit but has made the occasional foray on to the national stage with runners like millionaire Clever Trevor (13th in Sunday Silence's 1989 Derby) and 2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile victor Caleb's Posse.

Suddenbreakingnews has the running style and the pedigree to suggest that longer distances are well within his reach. He's by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, a son of Belmont Stakes hero A. P. Indy and grandson of 1978 Triple Crown conquerer Seattle Slew. Mineshaft was victorious in a quartet of Grade 1 races in his championship season, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap at 10 furlongs. He's been a hit-and-miss stallion with 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In and the late-developing Grade 1 winner Effinex, runner-up to American Pharoah in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, among his 'hits'.

The dam of Suddenbreakingnews, Uchitel, never found the winner's circle in three starts but is by 2005 Preakness/Belmont champ Afleet Alex from an active female family. She's a sister to Grade 1 winner Composure, dam of recent Royal Delta Stakes (G2) winner Penwith.

Suddenbreakingnews can't yet be put in to the top tier of Derby contenders currently occupied by Mohaymen, Nyquist and Mor Spirit. But it won't be a surprise to find him in some Triple Crown race trifectas, at the very least.

 

Triple Crown Contender – Mor Spirit

Astute Kentucky Derby handicappers often look past flashy early spring performances, instead preferring horses ready to peak on the first Saturday in May. Mor Spirit is firmly on the radar of those players.

The colt first made news in early March of 2015 when he commanded a $650,000 price at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Two-Year-Old in Training sale. That figure was the eighth highest at North America's most prestigious juvenile sale.

He made his racing debut on September 27 with a second place run in a 6.5F Maiden Special at Santa Anita. Graduation day came a month later when stretched out to a mile and he's faced nothing but stakes company since.

The dark bay ran second to Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), defeating eventual LeComte Stakes hero Mo Tom by a head. He then returned to California to win the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and the February 6 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

In the Los Al race he was rank, fighting Gary Steven for his head in the early stages before settling down and surging past the sprinter Toews on Ice for the win. In the Lewis, he rated like a gentleman in third, tracking the early leaders. Even when stablemate Let's Meet in Rio rushed up along his inside on the backstretch he waited for Stevens' cue. That cue didn't come until after the eighth pole after which he drove past Uncle Lino and previously unbeaten I Will Score to get the money. He continued running well throughout the spring, passing Exaggerator to get second money versus the runaway winner Danzig Candy. In the Santa Anita Derby he again rallied for second over a sloppy surface he clearly did not appreciate.

A son of the Giant's Causeway stallion Eskendereya (now in South Korea), Mor Sprit doesn't 'wow' with an explosive turn of foot. He simply wears opponents down with long consistent strides. According to his trainer, Bob Baffert, and rider, Gary Stevens, he still may need to develop a 'killer instinct' too.

“He has that long stride, but in the mornings, he’s not a very good work horse. He’s sort of lazy," Baffert told reporters after the Lewis. "He needs a target and when he gets a target, he shuts it down, but today was perfect."

"Every time we step forward I hope I can find the bottom . . . but I don’t want to find the bottom of him until it’s time," added Stevens. "I haven’t got close to that yet and that’s a good feeling. He seems to just do just enough for what’s in front of him; he likes a target. I think as he faces better horses, he’ll only get better.”

Mor Spirit couldn't be in more expert hands to continue both his mental and physical development throughout the spring. Hall of Famer Baffert has guided a quartet of colts to the Kentucky Derby winners circle. All four came back in two weeks to win the Preakness and three of them fired their best shots in the Belmont Stakes too with War Emblem the lone exception. Stevens also has a plaque in the Hall of Fame and it has three Derby victories etched on it - Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995) and the Baffert-trained Silver Charm in 1997.

Mor Spirit reminds one of Real Quiet, a tough and consistent customer who emerged from the shadow of stablemate Indian Charlie to score in the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bettors who remain on the Mor Spirit bandwagon will be handsomely rewarded should he wear the roses.

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Mohaymen

The superlatives began flying around Gulfstream Park (and the internet) the second Mohaymen crossed the finish line in the January 30 Holy Bull Stakes (G2). And with good reason. The Kiaran McLaughlin pupil didn't have an easy go of it yet still drew off under a hand ride to score by 3 1/2 lengths.

"He took my breath away," McLaughlin said of his perfect 4-for4 colt after the race.

“Just chills up and down the back. He’s just really good," added Shadwell Farm Racing Manager Rick Nichols.

Those impressions were confirmed four weeks later with his powerful score over Zulu in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

Watch the Fountain of Youth Stakes

But his flop in the April 2 Florida Derby left his connections and many racing pundits scratching their heads. Handicappers will have to decide if his fourth-place run to Nyquist, while wide and over a drying-out track he many not have handled, can be forgiven. His previous form was certainly outstanding.

Moyahmen showed good adaptability in his three juvenile victories in 2015, including a pair of graded triumphs in the Nashua Stakes (G3) and Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. In the Remsen, in particular, he was faced with a narrow opening between two rivals at the top of the stretch, showing good courage and acceleration to burst through to daylight.

The roan colt found himself in a similar situation in the Holy Bull Stakes, this time on the backstretch, where he was purposely bottled up by a trio of rivals including John Velasquez on second choice Greenpointcrusader. But Mohaymen once again used a tactical burst to extricate himself from a potential trap. As soon as he was in the clear he relaxed back for rider Junior Alvarado for another furlong before bounding away in-hand from Greenpointcrusader down the stretch.

"I just waited and waited to see what Johnny (Velazquez aboard Greenpointcrusader) was going to do," Alvarado recounted in a post-race interview. "He left me a little room, but sometimes that can be a little trap. I just waited and waited and then it got to a point where he didn't come inside and the horse in front was backing up, so I said, 'I've got the best horse. It's time to be making my own move. After that it was pretty much over."

In the past 24 years only Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1996), Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009) finished off-the-board in their final Derby preps. Thunder Gulch may prove to the most comparable to Mohaymen. The D. Wayne Lukas-trainee made a successful run through the Gulfstream Park three-year-old series before a faltering fourth over a tricky Keeneland surface in the Bluegrass Stakes.

On the plus side for Mohaymen, he's a $2.2 million yearling so you can bet he has exceptional looks and conformation. His pedigree is flawless too for a Classics contender, being a son of North America's top sire Tapit, a grandson of 1992 Belmont Stakes/Breeders' Cup Classic champion A. P. Indy. The Tapits can excel on any surface and at any distance. His 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, who also captured the Met Mile, is a good example of that versatility.

Mohaymen is certainly in good hands with Lexington, Kentucky native Kiarin McLaughlin, who has been battling MS for the past couple decades. He is right up there on the list of the best trainers who have yet to win a Derby. He came close in 2005 with Closing Argument, a desperate neck shy of Giacomo, and had a good one last year in 4th-place finisher Frosted. For that reason alone, if Mohaymen should wear the roses on May 7, there won't be many racing industry folks upset with the result.

 

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Discreetness

The Oaklawn Park route to the Triple Crown has been extremely fruitful in recent years with the likes of Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, Super Saver and American Pharoah all passing through Hot Springs on the way to at least one Classic victory.

The folks at Oaklawn named the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on January 18 after the horse who got the party started in 2004 and it was won in fine fashion by Discreetness.

Trained by midwest veteran William H. 'Jinks' Fires (who won the Arkansas Derby in 2011 with Archarcharch), Discreetness was unplaced in his first two stakes attempts as a juvenile. He could manage only a sixth-place finish after a slow start in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) and checked in fourth as the favorite in the November 1 Street Sense Stakes won by eventual LeComte Stakes hero Mo Tom.

Sent off at nearly 10-1 in the rich Remington Springboard Mile in mid-December, Discreetness rebounded with a brave nose victory over Suddenbreakingnews and the favored California invader Esposito from the Tom Proctor barn.

Another California hotshot was sent off favored in the Smarty Jones, the odds-on Bob Baffert pupil Toews on Ice. Those bettors that took the 9-1 offer on Discreetness were rewarded with another dramatic victory in the one mile event.

Under Jon Court, Discreetness worked out a clean stalking trip behind Toews on Ice and Gordy Florida in the Smarty Jones. The latter appeared to be moving best of all around the far turn with Discreetness under heavy pressure from Court (with Toews on Ice readily fading). At the eighth pole Discreetness engaged Gordy Florida from the outside and Court put the whip away allowing his charge to earn the victory on his own, which he accomplished by a measured neck.

"Jon and I had talked before the race," Fires said of the short stretch run in one-mile races at Oaklawn. "Going a mile here, if you're not first, second, or third at the three-eighths pole it's hard to make up ground, so we decided to ask him a little early."

Discreetness gets speed from both sides of his pedigree. He's a son of Cigar Mile (G1) winner Discreet Cat, who also won a 9-furlong edition of the U. A. E. Derby (G2) by six lengths. He's out of an unraced daughter of the ultra-quick Elusive Quality (sire of Smarty Jones).

Speed may serve Discreetness well again in the Southwest Stakes (on February 19) and/or the Rebel Stakes (March 9) before the distance waters get a little deeper in the Arkansas Derby three weeks before the first Saturday in May. History has shown if he can be a factor in that one he'd merit a long look at the windows in the Triple Crown series.

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Mo Tom

Mo Tom didn't win the Risen Star Stakes (G2) on February 20 or the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26 but he did earn a world of respect after very troubled trips.

Watch the Risen Star Stakes

Mo Tom experienced some drama in the January 15 LeComte Stakes as well but got the money with a heady ride by jockey Corey Lanarie. The veteran Midwest reignsman patiently bided his time in the three path around the final turn while Tom's Ready, who had moved first under Shaun Bridgmohan, was strung out six wide. Once straightened for home Lanarie said 'go' and swung Mo Tom to the far outside where he had clear sailing to surge past Tom's Ready for the 2 1/4-length score.

Lanerie's ride in the Louisiana Derby drew wide and loud (and deserved) rancor from racing observers, including Lanerie himself.

“It was a bad ride and totally my fault," said Lanerie after the race. "He came underneath me and I had more horse than I knew what to do with and I got him in trouble and went inside when I shouldn’t have. I doubt they’ll let me sit on him again. He’s a great horse.”

Louisiana Derby video:

Trainer Tom Amoss was understandably furious after the incident but after cooling down has decided to stick with Lanerie for Mo Tom's next start. With 32 points towards a berth in the Kentucky Derby already accumulated, that next start is still likely to be in the big one under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.

Mo Tom enjoyed a good juvenile season with a win in the listed Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, also at the expense of Tom's Ready. Fourth in the Street Sense was Discreetness, who has since reeled off a pair of stakes victories, including a score in the January 18 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Mo Tom closed out his two-year-old term with third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on November 28. That day he finished behind Airoforce and subsequent Grade 1 winner Mor Spirit, but ahead of his Risen Star/Louisiana Derby conquerer Gun Runner.

No Kentucky Derby champion has won the LeComte but a pair of winners have later worn the Black-Eyed Susans at the Preakness - Oxbow in 2013 and Linkage in 1982. Super Saver (2010) is the last Derby winner to have raced at Churchill at two and he's the third Derby hero this century to take juvenile spin under the Twin Spires, along with Street Sense (2007) and Monarchos (2001).

Mo Tom is one of seven blacktype winners and four graded winners so far from the highly successful first crop sired by Uncle Mo, the galloping winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. Uncle Mo is a son of Indian Charlie, the speedy 1998 Santa Anita Derby winner who finished third in that's years Derby after being bum rushed by Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.

It remains to be seen if the Uncle Mo runners will prove to be anything other than precocious. Although his dam, the winless Caroni, is inbred to the last English Triple Crown winner, Nijinsky II, Mo Tom's pedigree is also slanted more toward early-developing speed. His damsire is 1992 Eclipse Champion Sprinter Rubiano and he's brother to a pair of stakes winners, one at a mile another at six furlongs. The six furlong stakes winner, Beautician, was three-time graded-placed at two, including a runner-up finish in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

The questions about Mo Tom's true talent and distance capabilities weren't definitively answered in his last two races due to circumstances. Bettors still on the Mo Tom bandwagon should demand exceptional odds to find out what kind of horse he really is in a 20-horse Derby stampede.

 

Betmix Tip – Using the Betmix Printable PP’s

The new Betmix Past Performances are not only printable they provide a wealth of summarized data that can be used to easily point out logical contenders and potential longshot plays.

The Saturday card at Tampa Bay Downs provided some good examples of the effectiveness of these innovative new PP’s.

The winner of the 5th race was the $18.80 Allie’s Event and it took just a few seconds time with the Betmix PP’s to see that the 6yo son of Wild Event was a major player. After the 11 horse scratched, Allie’s Event ranked first in the top four Factors most important in middle distance turf allowance contests at the Oldsmar, Florida track.

The Quick Handicapping box also show Allie’s Event on top in five of six categories (again after taking out the 11 horse).

Jan 11 blog QH
Saturday's 7th at Tampa is a good illustration of the new 'Who Beat Who' feature. The betting public sent Lox (#3) postward as the odds-on choice in the 8.5 furlong Maiden Claimer on the main track. But Bexmix PP users were immediately aware that American Merlot (#7) finished ahead of Lox in their last meeting on December 18. American Merlot won by a neck on Saturday at a $14.60 win mutuel, keying a $33.40 exacta with Lox.

 

TamRac7

Looking for Longshots

Betmix introduced the Handicapping Journal in November and feedback from our users has been overwhelmingly positive. The Journal provides an at-a-glance look at the previous day's results as well as a preview of the current day's racing landscape.

One way to use the Journal is to analyze the day's longshots listed in the Highest Paying Winners section.

Betmix subscribers can click through to pull up the Mix Maker page for that race. From there, click the Run MixMaker button to see if the Mix generated would have put the longshot winner the top selection (or close). If so, look to make sure the Mix uses factors that will likely be predictive in future races of that type.

Once a satisfactory Mix is isolated it can then be tested using the Race Profile report.

Let's take the January 2 San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita as an example of this process. The winner of the 8F Grade 2 stake on the grass was Flamboyant ($94.20). The Run Mix Maker button reveals that weighting just two factors equally, Last Turn Time and Distance Worked Since Last Race would have made Flamboyant a strong top choice.

RunMixMakerYour Mix

Anecdotally we can buy this. Last Turn Time and recent workout factors can certainly be indicative of a horse rounding into his/her best form and these more subtle factors can easily be overlooked by the majority of handicappers.

Clicking the Race Profile Report brings up all the 8-9 furlong turf stakes at Santa Anita going back to 2013. In this case we find a good sample size of 30 races. Using the sliders below the Results tabulation on the right side of the screen we can weight our two factors equally. By doing this we find that this Mix has pointed to five other winners, including an $85.40 winner (and a $31.00 place horse) just last May!

Win, Place, Show & exotic percentages are shown along with profit figures. All of these are incredibly strong. For instance, the win profit (for a $2 wager) is over $200 and the (top 4) trifecta box profit rings up at $731.50! (see full Results below).

Once a strong Mix like this is isolated it can be saved to your Mix Library for use on future races of the same type.

Results

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Betmix Enhancement – Printable PP’s

Many people like to have a printable copy of past performance information, and some of you have asked for PPs that can be viewed on a tablet or IPad. We are confident that our new PP's will satisfy both requests.
We've developed a new PP that we feel is more useful than the traditional PP that you buy at the racetrack.  The Betmix PP's contain a wealth of information that you just won't find in the track program.
To access the PPs, (they will download to your device as a PDF file), just click on the PP icon in the Today's Races screen, or on the Free Race of the Day.

Here are some of the features found in our printable PP's:

And some helpful information for each horse is displayed:

Pittsburgh Phil & Betmix, Both Ahead of Their Time

Legendary late 19th/early 20th-century horse player George Elsworth Smith, aka Pittsburgh Phil, is known for pioneering many important thoroughbred handicapping concepts. And a good many of those are just as relevant today as they were when all the men wore top hats and overcoats.

“Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.”

Betmix was essentially founded on this principle - to bring greater, often hidden, detail to the modern horse player. When ‘Phil’ first uttered those words over 100 years ago there was a decided lack of information available on the equine contestants of the day. In 2015 we not only have a wealth of data at our disposal but the computing power to parse it new and powerful ways.

The state-of-the-art Betmix software analyzes results from thousands of races to isolate the typical winning factors for a specific race type. For example, we now know that in one mile Allowance contests at Churchill Downs the horse with the highest Average Lifetime Earnings has won 35% of the time producing a win bet ROI of $8.00. With a few clicks and movement of the Betmix sliders you can find out which horse ranks best in this factor in the next race of this class and distance under the Twin Spires.

That’s just one example so things can quickly head into information overload territory. That’s why we’ve been introducing new ways to organize and present the available data making it easier for Betmix users to search out winning plays.

The most innovative of these new features is Command Center. This recently introduced page shows all the days North American races on single, sortable interface. Looking for races that tend to produce longshots? Sort by Avg. Win Payout to immediately isolate races that are often captured by high-priced winners. Or maybe you need a safe play to ice a lead in a handicapping tournament. Sorting by Hit the Board score quickly points out races with a single contender most likely to make the top three.

To take advantage of the full power of Betmix, just click anywhere on a race line to open the Mix Maxer/Race Profile interface for that race.

command_center_screenshot

"If there are two or three very fast horses in a race one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey."

‘Phil’ was on top of race shape long before ‘pace makes the race’ joined the handicapping vernacular. With Betmix it’s easy to check the possible pace scenarios in a given race. There are eight factors related to pace that can be quickly weighted with the Betmix sliders. A good way to check on potential early pace is to slide Avg of Last 3 E1 Pace over to see if a horse is shown to have a big early pace advantage. Conversely, you may find two or more horses are likely to scramble for the early lead. In the case of the latter, the Avg of Last 3 Late Pace or Avg of Last 3 Turn Time sliders come in handy to isolate who’s likely to be running fastest of all in the later stages of the race.

"The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment."

2015 translation: insist on value. On the Race Profile page, each factor also has Win, Place and Show return on investment (ROI) figures shown. For example, in the visual below Avg. Speed Last 3 not only wins 44% of the time in this race type it’s also been yielding a Win ROI of $28.40 (for a $2 bet). The Race Profile can be sorted by Win % and the ROI columns to instantly see which factors win most often and if they tend to produce payouts worth going after.

Race Value
Pittsburgh Phil passed away in 1909 with a reported $3.2 million in the bank. One has to wonder what that account would have looked like if Betmix were around in those days.

A few new Betmix Handicapping Tools

Three new Betmix tools:

1. Updated Horse pop-up info
When you click on a horse's name in Betmix you will see that horse's PP info.  We have added several new things to that screen.

A. If the horse had a layoff of more than 45 days, you will see that number in RED by the date of the race. You can use this information to see how well a horse typically runs back from a layoff.

B.  The AVG speed rating for each horse in the race that has run at today's distance and surface.  Speed ratings that are better than AVG will appear in Green and races where the speed rating was below AVG will appear in Red. This is very useful information for judging what it will take to win today's race and will help you easily spot capable horses.

C. The top three finishers in each previous start for the horse, horses listed in BOLD are running in today's race.

D. Trip comments for each previous race.

Take a look at this in the Free Race of the Day.

2. Detailed Track Report

When you click the TRACK REPORT button on any race screen you will see a pop up window that contains valuable information about the races being run at that track.

A. Winning posts positions for Dirt Sprints (less than a mile), Dirt Routes (mile or longer), Turf  Sprints and Turf Routes.

B. Information about what winning horses in each race type are paying.

C. The percentage of favorites that are winning each race type.  In the example above for Gulfstream West, you can see that there have been 205 races this meet and favorites have won 68 of those races (33%).  Dirt Route races have been the most predictable (40% favorites) and Turf Sprints have been the least predictable (26% favorites)

Take a look at this in the Free Race of the Day.

3. Sire, Trainer and Jockey report in the Handicapping Journal.

The Handicapping Journal is now listing data for Sires, Trainers and Jockeys.

List of the 10 sires with the most runners on the previous day, and current day. When you click on a horses name you will see detailed information about each runner sired by that stallion.  Where they ran, what type of race, purse, ML odds, finish position, purse money won, and $2 win bet pay out.  The information in the list is show a total for each horse.

The same information tables are available for the 10 trainers with the most runners and 10 jockeys with the most mounts.

Looking at this information will give you a better feel for what sires are producing the most winners, and what types of races they are doing well with.

Take a look at the Handicapping Journal everyday and see who is hot and who is not...