Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

A few new Betmix tools and features

New Betmix tools and features to help you win more races!       

Hope everyone had a profitable Triple Crown season!

We've added a few new features that we hope you will find helpful:

Color Coded Running Lines  
When you bring up the Horse Information Box (Click on the horse's name) you will now see running lines.  We have color coded them to help you easily see the running style of the horse.  The colors are displayed in shades of:  RED (Far back), YELLOW (Mid pack) and GREEN (On the lead).
Here is an example of a classic "Closer", as the colors in the running lines go from Red to Green."
Closer running style horse racing

This horse is a typical "Front runner" who is on or near the lead throughout the race
FrontRunner

New Tools for Scoring Mixes
When you test or create a Mix in Race Results or Test My Report you are now able to see the profit, number of wins and win %. You will find this useful when you are creating a Mix since you can now build your mixes to find the highest ROI or the most Winners in a particular category.  If you are looking at a sample of 15 races you may find that the most profitable Mix returned a profit of $50 on win bets, but it only picked 3 winners who paid around $25 each, or you may decide to go with the most consistent Mix that picked 9 winners who were shorter prices and returned a profit of $30. As you know, there are several strategies for building Mixes and many users have started creating several Mixes for each race type.  One Mix may focus on finding the most winners, another on potential longshots, and yet another to find the most Trifectas.  Depending on how you like to bet, you should create multiple Mixes tailored to the types of bets you make.

Here is an example of a Mix for 6f dirt Claiming  races at Finger Lakes. Looking at the last 25 races that were run under those conditions the top ranked horse ran at least 3rd in 24 out of 25 races.  The one race that it did not run 3rd was a field of only 4 horses, so there was no show betting! It ran second in that race (05/27). The profit for making a show bet on those 25 races is not enormous, but if you are Show bettor or are looking for a Key horse in your Trifectas or Supers, this would be a good place to start.  If you are interested in adding this Mix to your saved mixes it can be found in the MixLibrary and is called " Finger Lakes 6f Dirt Clm"
Results
MixMaker Results added
In the past when using MixMaker to help you build a Mix you had to click a button to find the race results and then manually enter that information.  Now the information for the top 3 horses is added automatically.  You can also see the finish position for each horse in the race which helps when you go to "tweak" the mix.
NewMixMaker

We hope that you all find these new features to be useful and that they help you cash more tickets. We have several exciting new features in the works and will continue to work towards making Betmix the most accurate and easy to use handicapping software available!

What is class in horse racing?

How to use Class in handicapping horse races
We've added 4 new factors to Betmix in the last couple of days: Last Race Class, Avg. Last 3 Race Classes, Days Since Last Race and Last Finish Position.Before we get into details on the Class factors, let's take a step back and think about what a Mix in Betmix actually is, and how you go about building one.

When trying to explain Betmix and how it works to new users I often use a cooking analogy. Its sometimes easier for people to understand the concept if they look at the factors as ingredients, and the Mix they create as a recipe.  Each factor that you use in your mix would be similar to the items that go into a recipe and the value that you assign to those factors would be the amount of the ingredient you use.  Some factors would be considered main ingredients, and others would be spices. If you are not using the right ingredients in the correct amounts, your recipe will not turn out too well. In addition your recipe may be greatly improved by adding a few spices. But, if you add too many different spices or pour in the whole bottle of hot sauce you could easily mess the whole thing up.That may be an over simplification of how Betmix actually works, but for most people its easier to grasp that concept than it is to understand normalized variable multiple regression equations. Right?

The ingredients you would use to bake a cake are going to be different than the ingredients you would use to make a pot of Burgoo.  Just like the factors you choose to handicap a 5F turf race are going to be different than the factors you would use to handicap the Kentucky Derby.

A great chef needs to have a wide range of ingredients and spices, and a great handicapper needs to consider as many factors as possible.  Both the Chef and the Handicapper have to use the right ingredients in the right amounts in different situations.

CLASS 

If you get a group of 5 handicappers together you are probably going to get 5 different definitions of what class really means.  Is it the purse value of the races the horse has been running in?  Is it the competition at the racetrack?  Is an allowance race at Saratoga always better than an allowance race at Parx? Some handicappers are convinced that Class is the key to beating the races, while others don't place much importance on it at all.We created a class rating for every race in our database.  In order to define the class of the race we looked at every horse in that race, how fast they had run recently and during their careers, what kind of races they had been running in recently, and how much money they have been earning.  The smallest component of our class rating was the purse value of the race. We wanted to know how "Classy" the race was based on the quality of the horses in the race, not just the venue or the purse value.  We found out some interesting things.  Looking at the recent Keeneland meet, most people would say that the $750,000 Blue Grass stakes (G1) was the "Classiest" race at the meet.  But looking at the overall quality of horses in each race and what they had actually accomplished in their careers it was the only the 6th "classiest" race at Keeneland this spring.

So how predictive are the Class factors?  Used individually they may not be as predictive as the Class handicappers would argue. Just because a horse came out of the toughest race last time out, it doesn't mean that he will run better today.  But, when you look at the Class Factors as a "Spice" and use them in combination with other "Main Ingredients" they can make your mix more predictive.  Last Race Class in combination with recency (Last Finish Position and Days Since Last Race) is a much more predictive mix than using any of those metrics as single factors.

As you begin to use the new factors in your mixes you will notice that they are more predictive in certain race types and at certain race tracks then they are in others.  The bottom line is that in most mixes (or recipes) Class is going to be a spice and not a main ingredient.  The Class factors will absolutely make your Mixes more accurate, but don't ruin the Burgoo!

Horse Racing Results Data

In order to test your Mixes or create new Mixes, you need to test them against historical results. We have a couple of ways for you to do that....

RACE RESULTS
When you look at the race results page, you can select a date and track,  and then see the results for races on that day.  You can test any of your saved mixes to see how profitable they would have been, or you can create mixes using the results as a guide.
Race Results

The results box shows you what would have happened if you bet $2 win, place and show on your top ranked horse, and if you boxed the top 3 ranked horses in a $1 exacta and the top 4 in a $1 Trifecta.

You can see from the above results that the mix we used for that day would have returned a profit on Win, Place, Show and Exacta bets and a loss on Trifecta bets.  As you change the factors you are using in your mix or give more or less weight to a particular factor you are using, the results box will update instantly.  You can also apply any saved mix you have to the results and they will update.  This is useful if you are the type of handicapper that uses the same mix for each race type.

If you design your Mixes for specific race types, then you will want to use the My Race Report tool. There you can select a group of similar races using the search features.  So, for example, if you wanted to see how well your Mix did on the past fifteen 7F dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park you could do that by searching for those races, and then adding them to a report.
RaceSearchGP
Once you have found a group of races that you want to use in the results, you can click each race to add it to your report.  You give that report a name, then save it, and you can then test it using the results data for those races.
ReportMakerResults

Now, using a group of similar races, you can create a very accurate Mix for predicting the winners of 7F Dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park.

For more information on how to use horse racing results data to win more bets watch this tutorial video.

Horse Race Search

Find any race in the Betmix database

We've added a neat new tool to Betmix called RACE SEARCH. Using this tool you can search our entire database to find any race.  Search by date, track, post time, surface, race type, distance, age/sex, purse or claiming price.

The results will display a list of all matching races - clicking on any race will open it up in MixMaker where you can create a mix or test your existing mixes on similar race types.

RaceSearch
Using the Race Search feature will improve your mixes tremendously, and allow you to build very specific mixes for any track or race type. If you have created a 'super mix' for 1 mile turf allowance races, then just search for matching races running today and you will have a short list of races to bet on. This is an enormously helpful tool and we hope you take advantage of all it has to offer.

The race search tool is one of many exciting new features we will be adding in the coming months, and we cant wait to roll them all out...

Betmix 2.0

Introducing BETMIX 2.0 - The best handicapping software available

We've made some major changes to Betmix.com and are anxious to share them with you. The site has been completely redesigned, and there are many new features to help you handicap with greater accuracy.  Here are just a few of the new features we have added...

New Factors, new sliders
We have added several new factors (Speed Last Race, Win %, In the money %, Last Purse, Avg Last 3 Purses, Trainer Jockey Combo win % and Trainer Jock ROI).  In the old version of Betmix, the sliders had to be "turned on", they are now "on" by default but will only be used in calculations when they have a value.
NewFactors

We also made major changes to our database structure that will allow us to easily add new factors (we will be adding more soon!) and create new and exciting analysis tools.

New Tools
NewTools

Winning Factors allows you to find all the previous wins in our database for a particular horse and instantly compares that winning effort to today's race.  You can quickly see if today's race sets up in a similar way to the last race the horse won.

Your Mix displays all of the factors you have chosen in a pie chart and provides you with a simple graphic explanation of how the computer is interpreting your mix. By mousing over each pie slice you can see the percentage for each factor and the total number of points you have assigned.

Overall Rankings can now be seen on the main screen as well as by hitting the RANKINGS button so that you can get an instant read on how the horses stack up.

Improved MixMaker
Mix Maker   BETMIX

 

We have greatly improved the artificial intelligence behind MixMaker.  Now you can choose to create a mix that puts an emphasis on finding the winner or choose to create a mix that finds the trifecta. The accuracy of MixMaker is much better now, as it has the ability to consider all possible factors in any given race.

 

Handicapping races on a muddy race track

The 6th race at Beulah park on December 11 was run on a muddy race track, and provided a good example of how sometimes looking at a race in the most simplistic terms can payoff big. The 6th race was a 5.5 F claimer with 7 entrants. Simply turning on the Mud Pedigree rating produced the following rankings for the horses:

Boxing the top 3 horses in a trifecta resulted in a nice payoff:

Sometimes just asking a simple question like "Who is bred best to run on an off track" can result in a nice payoff. Betmix is ideal for answering those types of questions and you should get in the habit of looking at a race with just one factor turned on when you want a quick answer to a simple handicapping question.

Declining Speed and Declining Finish position

One of the most common questions we are asked is "What do the Red and Green arrows in the rankings mean?" There are two columns in the results screen, one is labled "S" for speed and the other "F" for finish. If a horse has run three races in a row that show improved speed or improved finish position he earns a Green Up Arrow, if his last three races show declines in speed numbers or finish positions he gets a Red Down Arrow. The idea is to show you at a glance if a horse is off form or in form. Horses with Green up arrows are on the improve and those with red arrows are in decline. However, you need to look closely and not blindly include or toss a horse based solely on the arrows. If a horse were to earn a red arrow for speed and his last three speed numbers numbers were 100/99/98 then you wouldn't consider that a horse in serious decline. Also if a horse finished 11th, 10th, 9th in his last three races, then he is improving! But, probably not a contender today.

Take a look at the 2nd race from Turf Paradise on December 10th 2012:

All of the horses with the exception of #2 and #4 have Red Arrows, and many of them are showing declining speed numbers which is worse than declining finish position. In a case like this you should look very closely at those two horses to see if they are contenders within your normal handicapping process - if they are then you have found a race that has excellent potential for a big payout.

As it turns out - both the 2 and 4 were serious contenders and the race was played as a Superfecta, the bet was 2,4 / 2,4 / all / all. We knew 2 of the horses had to fill out the super, but didn't have a strong opinion about which ones, so we hit the ALL Button and hoped for a bomb. The horse that ran 3rd went off at 49:1 and made for a nice superfecta:

Use the arrows to point you towards a race where there is potential for chaos. Use that to your advantage. When the majority of the filed in a race is in bad form, it can mean monster payoffs if you play it the right way.

Betting horses with the best speed.

One of the factors available to BetMix users is Avg. Best 2 of last 3 speed. This factor looks at the last 3 speed figures earned by the horse, tosses out the worst number, and averages the other 2. If a horse earned speed figures of 72, 68, 73 in his last three starts his Avg. best 2 of last 3 would be (72+73)/2=72.5. Why do you toss one? Because it gives the horse the benefit of the doubt. Maybe he had trouble in one race or was experimenting with a new distance or surface and that low number might not be representative of his true ability.

It goes without saying that fast horses win races. This factor should be used heavily in your mixes. Let's take a look at the first 7 days of the current Gulfstream meet to see how important the Avg. Best 2 of last 3 speed factor is.

We are not going to use Maiden Races in our stats, simply because some of those horses haven't started yet, or if they have they might not have run 3 races. This factor is more predictive when looking at horses who have a few races under their belts.

If you look at non-maiden races at Gulfstream to date, and only turned on the Avg. Best 2 of last 3 factor, how accurate would that factor be at predicting the winner?

We took the top two ranked horses from each race to see how well we would have done betting horses with the best speed. We bet a fictional $2 win on the two fastest horses in each race, so we are betting $4 per race.

Dirt Sprints: 18 races 11 winners (61%) bet $72.00 won $70.00
Dirt Routes: 8 races 4 winners (50%) bet $32.00 won $31.60
Turf Sprints: 4 races 3 winners (75%) bet $16 won $26.20
Turf Routes: 13 races 6 winners (46%) bet $52 won $42.40

Overall: 43 races 24 winners (55%) bet $172 won $170.20

We can see that 55% of the winners at Gulfstream in non-maiden races came from the top 2 best speed horses in the race. Betting on each of them would have resulted in a loss of $1.80. From this limited sample we can also see that speed is more important in sprints than routes and betting the fastest horses in just the sprint races would have resulted in a profit of $6.20.

If you use best speed as the foundation of your mix and start adding in other handicapping factors available in Betmix, then you can start creating very profitable handicapping angles that will result in higher win % and profits.

Best of luck at the windows!

Betting Trifectas using Betmix

We know that Betmix allows you to handicap a race quickly and accurately, but how do you use the results to make exotic bets like trifectas and superfectas?

One of the great advantages of the Betmix handicapping system is the point totals that it returns for each horse after you have applied your mix to the race. It gives you a very good idea of the number of horses in the race that are contenders. The key to making successful bets is separating the contenders from the pretenders, and we will show you how to do that using Betmix.

In this example we will be handicapping the Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park on December 15th (9th race). Subscribers can pull that race up in the historic race section, those who have not subscribed will just have to follow along from the screen shots.

The race is for 2-year-olds going 1 mile on the turf, and we will use our Standard Turf Race mix which is available for monthly subscribers to add to their saved mixes in the MixLibrary. When we apply that mix to the race we get the following results:

When betting a trifecta or superfecta we want to limit the contenders so that the cost of the bet is reasonable. The rule of thumb that we use is horses that are within 10 points of the leader are "contenders" and those outside of that margin are "pretenders" (for Superfecta bets we would include horses within 15 points of the top ranked horse). In this case, the top ranked horse is #4 Newfound Zapper with 77.5 points. For our 10 point rule we always round down, so any horse that has 67 or more points would be considered a contender in this race. We have 5 horses that qualify, which is a manageable number in a field of this size (the 11 horse scratched, so there are only 10 in the race) if over half the field had been within 10 points of the highest ranked horse we would probably skip the race in terms of betting exotics.

Now that we have our top ranked horse, we must check to see if he is worthy of being the "key" horse in our trifecta bet. He doesn't have a red arrow in the S or F column (for more information about arrows read our post about Declining Speed), his last race was 48 days ago which is acceptable (if it were more than 60 days we would be concerned), and a quick click of the Trainer-Jock button tells us that he is ranked 2nd there, so we can trust that he is well meant for this particular race.

To construct the bet we could simply box the top 5 horses in a $1 Trifecta Box which would cost $60, but we prefer to key the top horse with the others to save a little money.

We structure our bets like this:
$1 Trifecta 4 / 10,9,1,2 / 10,9,1,2 - Cost $12
$1 Trifecta 10,9,1,2 / 4 /10,9,1,2 - Cost $12
$1 Trifecta 10,9,1,2 / 10,9,1,2 / 4 - Cost $12

We invested $36 in the trifecta and put the #4 on top, between, and on the bottom of the other horses that were within 10 points of him in our mix.

Here is the result of the race:

Our key horse, #4 Newfound Zapper ran 3rd, and our 5th ranked horse (#2) went off at 16:1 and won the race resulting in a $378 trifecta for a $1 bet.

One of the many advantages of using Betmix to handicap is that you can accurately look at every race on the card in a matter of minutes. You can find races where you have a reasonable number of contenders and skip the races where the horses are too evenly matched to make an affordable wager. When you create your mixes or use those in the library, you are applying consistent logic to each race using solid handicapping principles. The key to making money betting on horses is all about consistency. Handicap in a consistent manner, and bet in a consistent way.

All Races Handicapping Report

We are excited to introduce a new report feature available to monthly subscribers - the ALL RACES REPORT. This report will allow you to select a saved mix, or use the sliders, and see the results for all races on one screen.

There are numerous advantages to this handicapping report. If you thought Betmix allowed you to handicap quickly before, this report takes it to a whole new level. You can now look for standout horses on a race card in seconds. For example - if you are looking for Early Pace (lone speed) horses, you can turn on Avg. Last E1 Pace and see if there are horses on today's card that have big point ranking advantages over the rest of the field.

This report is great for screening races, especially for those of you who look for point differences in their Mixes. For example, if you only play races where your top horse in a Mix is 10 points ahead of the 2nd ranked horse you can spot those races at a glance.Screening races is a great way to use Betmix. Screen for pace scenarios by only turning on AVG of last 3 E1 and quickly see which races may have a lone speed horse. Or for those of you who make use of the Red and Green arrows, you can easily spot races where there is a lone "Double Green" horse, or a race where the field is loaded with "Double Red" declining horses.We have heard from a few longshot hunters that races where the entire field is only separated by 10 points in Avg. Best 2 of last 3 speed often produces a big payout. This tool will make spotting those types of races much quicker - you can look through an entire card in a few seconds and then focus on handicapping those races that meet your criteria in more detail. Or if you are a handicapper who looks for standout favorites you can quickly find races that are unplayable because the fields are too evenly matched.

This report will also assist you in creating new mixes. When creating a new mix for a track its a great idea to look at the past results for that track and turn on 1 factor at a time to see where horses who ranked the highest in that category actually finished. Using this report makes that quick and easy.

For example, pulling up the Equibase results for Santa Anita on Dec. 30th 2012, and then bringing up the All Race Reprt and turning on Avg Last 3 Late Pace you will see that the top ranked horse hit the board in 6 of 9 races. The horses ranked on top in Avg Lifetime earnings hit the board in 7 of 9 races. Using the All Races Report you can do this very quickly and start creating mixes based on the most predictive factors. You will then refine those mixes by looking at race types and distances, and you can create very accurate handicapping methods for different tracks in a short time.