Tag Archives: Handicapping

Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. & The Very One S.

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. & The Very One S.
5F on the turf at Pimlico (May 20)
Races Analyzed: 15 stakes at 5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 12 winners (80%, $57.00 flat win bet profit, 290 ROI%)

It’s Preakness weekend and that means a stakes smorgasbord at Pimlico. While the second jewel of the Triple Crown is obviously the main course, a pair of turf sprints may offer the best betting opportunities. An incredible 80% of the winners of the 5-furlong grass stakes at Old Hilltop have been won by the horse ranked first in Speed This Distance.  

And since there’s never too much of a good thing, this angle can be applied to both the Jim McKay Turf Sprint S. on the Friday Black-Eyed Susan day card and The Very One S. on the big day.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed This Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s result - Wake Forest, 5th at 2.70-1

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Barbara Fritchie S. & General George S.

Handicapping Blog, ,

Barbara Fritchie S. (G2) & General George S. (G3)
7F on the dirt at Laurel (February 18)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 7F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 3 winners (37%, $5.20 flat win bet profit, 132 ROI%), 6 in the money (75%, $1.80 flat show bet profit, 111 ROI%)

Laurel Park hosts a stakes-packed ‘Winter Carnival’ card on February 18 with the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie S. and Grade 3 General George S. serving as the co-features. Both contests are run at 7 furlongs on the main track and the Best Speed Today’s Track factor has been prescient in selecting winners of these two races.

This factor pointed to last year’s General George hero Page McKenney ($6.80) and two of the past three Fritchie winners in Lady Sabelia (2015) and My Wandy’s Girl (2014), who both scored at 5/2 odds. Three others have hit the board, including Il Villano, runner up in the 2013 General George.

Last Sharp Angles results: McCraken ($5.00) 1st, Fact Finding 5th in Sam F. Davis S.

Want to look for your own Angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial

Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Holy Bull S.

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Holy Bull S. (G2)
8.5F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (February 4)
Races Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 16 qualifying horses, 8 winners (50%, $19.80 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 161), 11 win/place (68%, $5 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 115)

Excitement for the 2017 Kentucky Derby will be amped up this weekend after three more graded preps at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. Betmix Angler may be of help in handicapping Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull Stakes, a mile and one sixteenth (8.5F) affair that has drawn a field of nine Derby aspirants.

The past four Holy Bull winners have ranked first in Best Speed Fast Track - Mohaymen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). This factor has pointed to four other winners, including Wildcat Red, the $11 winner of the 2014 Fountain of Youth S. (G2).

No one will be buying a private island with these payoffs but there is always value in determining whether it’s prudent to stand with or against the public’s choices. With a strong fave like champion Classic Empire in this year’s Holy Bull field, Best Speed Fast Track should be the ideal place to start handicapping his chances of finding the winner's circle again on Saturday.

Last Sharp Angles results: Lobelia 8th at 53-1 in La Prevoyante H. & Danish Dynaformer 8th at 9/2 in W. L. McKnight H.

Want to look for your own Angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial

Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Tiffany Lass Stakes

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Tiffany Lass S.
8.32F on the dirt at Fair Grounds
Races Analyzed: 10 dirt stakes for fillies & mares from 8-8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 16 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (25%, 42.2 ROI%) & 12 win or place (75%, 115 ROI%)

belive-youThe four winners haven’t paid much, averaging less than even money, actually. 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can is largely responsible for the less-than-inspiring payouts, having won both the 2013 Tiffany Lass (when it was run in February) and the subsequent New Orleans Ladies S. at super-low odds. But with 75% of the qualifiers impacting the exacta Last Purse Rank appears to be the best place to start when handicapping these middle distance distaff stakes at Fair Grounds. This angle has also pointed to a pair of well-paying second-place finishers in 36-1 Private Promise and 8-1 Forest Lake.

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Dearest, 1st in Sugar Swirl S at 1.50-1 (defeating odds-on fave Stonetastic)

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Sugar Swirl Stakes

Handicapping Blog, ,

Sugar Swirl S. (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park
Races Analyzed: 14 6F graded dirt races
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 22 overall qualifying horses; 8 winners (36%, 151 ROI%) & 18 on the board (72%, 105 ROI%)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

It’s not uncommon for horses to tie atop a given factor ranking, as is the case here where 22 horses across 14 races ranked first in In the Money %. In this instance, however, the angle has proven profitable over the long term even if multiple horses were bet in the same race. And it’s certainly a great starting point for this race type. A horse ranking first in this category has won 57% of the time and finished in the money nearly three quarters of the time.

It obviously makes sense that horses ranking first in In the Money % would continue to run in the money. But Betmix users have the data that confirms the intuition, data that can lead to more confident wagering.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Saturday Stakes at Laurel

Handicapping Blog, , , , ,

Howard M. Bender Memorial S.
Willa On the Move S.
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 44 6F dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 10 of 44 races (23%, 102.7 ROI%)
Or: Won/placed in 29 of 44 races (66%, 109.9 ROI%)

laurelThe folks at Laurel are doing their best to help racing fans and horseplayers chase away the winter blues with a four-stakes card on Saturday, December 10. Two of the stakes are for older sprinters going 6 furlongs on the main track - the Howard M. Bender Memorial S. for males and the Willa on the Move S. for the distaffers. As noted above, Trainer/Jockey team success has been a very good predictor in this race type with 66% of the horses ranking first in this factor contributing to the exacta. The 10 winners are pretty evenly distributed between males (6) and females (4) so this angle can be safely applied to both of the Saturday stakes. The angle also has recency on it’s side. Among the winners are a pair of early 2016 stakes winners in Karen’s Silk ($8 winner of the January 16 Marshua S.) and Sweet on Smokey (winner of the January 2 What a Summer S. at a $6.60 mutuel).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Haybusa One, 4th in Hollywood Derby at 4.60-1.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Hollywood Derby

Handicapping Blog, , , ,

Hollywood Derby (G1)
9 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar
Races Analyzed: 9 Del Mar G1’s 9 furlongs on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%), 269% ROI

With Hollywood Park now transforming into the home of the Los Angeles Rams, the December 3 Hollywood Derby will be run for the third time over the Del Mar turf course at 9 furlongs. Three of the four winners in this 9 furlong grassy G1 winner sample have paid double digits with 2014 Del Mar Oaks winner Personal Diary (pictured) showing the highest mutuel. That filly paid $20.20 when she crossed the wire first for trainer Victoria Oliver.

personal_diary_del_mar_oaks_2014_615x400_orig

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

Handicapping Blog, , , ,

Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 41 Laurel stakes races at 6 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 22 of the 41 races (53%) for $127.80 Win ROI

In it’s heyday the DeFrancis Dash was won by champions like Housebuster, Cherokee Run and Smoke Glacken. The race has had it’s ups and down, along with the Maryland racing industry, but has regained graded status for the 2016 edition. Indeed, a very solid field has gathered for Saturday’s running at Laurel. As noted above, over half of the 6F dirt stakes at Laurel have been won by the horse ranked first in Best Speed Last 3. The large Win ROI is due largely to Zee Bros, who scored in the 2014 De Francis for D. Wayne Lukas at 29-1.

zee-bros-de-francis-dash

Zee Bros, the 29-1 winner of the 2014 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

Handicapping Blog, , , , ,

Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

takechargebrandikld85_2

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

Click to subscribe to Betmix.

Betmix Angler is Here!

Handicapping Blog, , , ,
To win consistently betting on horses you have to have an edge. Angler will give you the edge you need and so much more...

If you are serious about handicapping horses you need to know when a horse is a good bet, or a bad one. What types of races you should play and when to skip them. When a favorite is the right play and when to go against the chalk.

If you can describe the race or the horse, Angler can give you the percentages.

Q: How often do first time starters win MdSpWt races on the turf at Saratoga?
A: About 10% of the time.

Q: How often do horses in 6F dirt claiming races who are in poat #1, & have the best early pace & best speed last race win?
A: About 34% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more?
A: About 11% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently?
A: About 14% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently, and have the top trainer & jockey at the meet?
A: About 35% of the time.

Find your profitable angles, save them and then look for them in today's or future races. Put your money in action when you know the odds and percentages are in your favor...

Angler is available to Betmix monthly or yearly subscribers, to learn more about Angler and how to use it please watch this video, or take a look at the help page.