Tag Archives: Santa Anita

Sharp Angles – Pasadena S.

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Pasadena Stakes
8F on the turf at Santa Anita (March 18)
Races Analyzed: 19 3YO non-graded turf stakes at 8F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 9 winners (36%, $52.20 flat win bet profit, 204 ROI%, 12 total win/place, $5.70 flat place bet profit, 111 ROI%).

Santa Anita’s grassy Pasadena Stakes may not be the most glamorous blacktype event for three-year-olds this weekend but it just might yield a very nice payoff. Looking at the past 19 one mile non-graded stakes for sophomore turfers at Santa Anita we find that Speed Last Race is a key factor in isolating winners. No shock there. Fast horses win races, right?

What’s a pleasant surprise with this factor, though, is that it’s produced some juicy winners as evidenced by the strong $52.20 flat win bet profit. Two years ago the three-year-old filly Singing Kitty swept the Cal Cup Oaks (paying $17.40) and the China Doll Stakes at a $41.60 mutuel. This factor has worked well for the colts too, producing the last two Pasadena winners in Papacoolpapapacool ($12.40) and Dressed in Hermes ($2.80). The average odds of all 25 contenders is nearly 7-1 and their average finish is 3.68.

Last Week’s Results - Ivan Fallunovalot 2nd at 5.20-1 in Hot Springs Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Green

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There are four Breeders' Cup races for older runners on the turf. In the first Sharp Angles post we took a look at the Turf Sprint. Today we highlight some potentially profitable factors for the Turf, Mile and Filly & Mare Turf

Turf - 12 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 7 Graded races at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 7 races (43%) for $18.80 Win ROI

We have a small sample here but this factor highlighted the most recent BC Turf winner at Santa Anita - Main Sequence (pictured), who got past likely 2016 favorite Flintshire at a $14.04 mutuel.

Other ‘speed’ factors like Best Last Speed have also proven profitable in this race type at Santa Anita.

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Mile - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 13 Grade 1 races at 8 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 13 races (46%) for $46.40 Win ROI

This factor has pointed to a pair of double digit winners, including Midnight Storm, the $11.20 victor in this summer’s Shoemaker Mile. Wise Dan is also included in the sample for his second Mile score in 2013 ($3.60)

Filly & Mare Turf - 10 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 8 Graded 1 for fillies/mares at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 8 races (50%) for $19.80 Win ROI

We’d like to see a little higher ROI on an Angle that’s hit at a 50% rate but this factor has produced the last two Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf heroines at Santa Anita - Dank ($5) in 2013 and Dayatthespa ($13) in 2014.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Fast Lane

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In this week’s Sharp Angles post we’ll take a look at the two Breeders’ Cup ‘fast lane’ contests - the Sprint and Filly and Mare Sprint.

Breeders' Cup Sprint - 6 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for males on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: Has won 2 of the 6 races (33%) for a $39.20 Win ROI

The most relevant sample is pretty small, just six 6F Grade 1's for males at Santa Anita the past three years. However, this factor looks to be an emerging one. 2014 BC Sprint champ (at a $40.20 mutuel) Work All Week (pictured) ranked first in this factor. The most recent winner did too, Santa Anita Sprint Championship conqueror Lord Nelson ($3). Expanding the sample to include Grade 2 6F dirt races for males at the 'Great Race Place' would show another 2016 winner - Kobe's Back, the $7 victor of the Grade 2 Palos Verdes S. on February 7.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - 7 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Graded races for females on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Today's Track
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 6 races (50%) for a $15.20 Win ROI

Small sample and small ROI for this one too but this factor has pointed to the last two BC Filly & Mare Sprint winners at Santa Anita - 2013 heroine Groupie Doll ($8) and 2014 winner Judy the Beauty ($8.20). The other winner was Teddy's Promise the $5 winner of the 2013 Santa Monica Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

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Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup First Look

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Betmix Angler was introduced over the summer and has lived up the hype. It’s an extremely powerful handicapping tool, but one that does require a bit of trial and error to yielded consistent results. We’re kicking off a new blog series called Sharp Angles that will put the focus on some winning angles we’ve discovered by using Angler. By highlighting profitable angles, and the methodology behind them, we hope to advance the overall Angler understanding so that Betmix users can more effectively apply this important tool to their own handicapping challenges.

In three weeks time, the purple and gold Breeders Cup colors will adorn Santa Anita for the fourth time this decade. Two Breeders’ Cup contests, the Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile, are uniquely configured at the SoCal track so we’ve put those races in the Sharp Angles spotlight first.

turf-sprintBreeders' Cup Turf Sprint - 6.5 furlongs on the hillside turf course
Races Analyzed: 25 Graded Stakes races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Finish Position Rank
Factor Stats: Has won 11 of the 25 races (44%) for $106.80 Win ROI

This sample includes a $20-plus winner in each of the past three years - 2014 Las Cienegas Stakes heroine Tribal Spy, 2015 San Simeon Stakes winner Get Happy Mister ($27.20) and Holy Lute ($23.40) winner of a division of the Eddie D. Stakes on the opening day card of this year's fall meeting. Sharp form recent form does appear to be key in these ‘down the hill’ Graded events. We find that Speed Last Race has also been predictive, having been the winning factor in 9 of the 25 races (36%) and showing a $79 Win ROI.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - 8 furlongs on the main track (around two turns)
Races Analyzed: 6 Grade 1 races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: Has won all 6 races (100%) for $25.6 Win ROI

This is obviously a small sample size and a relatively small ROI but it’s hard to argue with perfection. A look at some additional data also suggests this angle is on very solid ground. First of all, opening up the search to all Graded races at the mile distance would increase the sample by two more races and yield two more winners. Second, it does appear that ‘home track advantage’ is a strong indicator in this race type as Average Earnings Today’s Track (66%/$11 ROI) and Trainer Current Meet (66%/$12 ROI) are the next two winningest factors.

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