Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries during November.

MONDAY MYTHS: DO MAIDEN CLAIMERS CAUSE CHAOS?

Maiden claiming races are the most unpredictable, and therefore are the most likely spread races in multi-race bets. Or are they?

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MONDAY MYTHS: ARE THE LATE-SEASON 2-YEAR-OLDS DILUTED?

Surely, the assumption, is that the best already were unveiled to aim at those prizes. But are rookies in November and December any less potent than their summer/early fall classmates?

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MONDAY MYTHS: IS AQUEDUCT A BETTORS’ LETDOWN?

The year-round racing schedule in New York shifts to Aqueduct on Thursday and will continue at the winter stomping grounds until next spring. Sure, it’s not the coliseum at Belmont nor the cathedral at Saratoga in terms of a physical plant. And while the racing product, too, is an obvious drop-off, the real question poised to those betting the horses here: Is the betting also a letdown?

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August Handicapping Myths

July Handicapping Myths

May Handicapping Myths

April Handicapping Myths

November 22, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Maiden claiming races are the most unpredictable, and therefore are the most likely spread races in multi-race bets.

Background:

Crack open the past performances, and you’re sure to see a full-field maiden claiming race at Anytrack USA. Venues are overflowing with maidens, and the lower-level runners all are looking for a place to graduate against other unsuccessful sorts. Many horseplayers frown at these races for a perceived lack of predictability that goes with their poor form and apparent lack of deserving trust. But are maiden claiming races the most likely for upset and most vulnerable?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all races run in 2021 through November 21. I specifically categorized them by race class to see which had the most trustworthy favorites, the most logical average winning price and the most likelihood for longshot winners (10-1 or more). In order to compare for field size impact, the comparisons are for identical fields of 10 runners -- a key component to this study.

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In 2021, maiden claiming races had an average winner at 5.87-1 odds.
In 2021, maiden special weight races had an average winner at 6.62-1 odds.
In 2021, claiming races had an average winner at 6.72-1 odds.
In 2021, allowance races had an average winner at 6.31-1 odds.
In 2021, stakes races had an average winner at 6.53-1 odds.

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In 2021, maiden claiming favorites won 33.6% with a $0.85 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, maiden special weight favorites won 34.7% with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, claiming favorites won 31.6% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, allowance favorites won 28.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, stakes favorites won 37.7% with a $0.93 ROI for every $1 bet.

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In 2021 maiden claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.7% win rate.
In 2021 maiden special weight races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.0% win rate.
In 2021 claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.5% win rate.
In 2021 allowance races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.2% win rate.
In 2021 stakes, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.5% win rate.

Overall Findings:

Maiden claiming races have had the lowest average odds for winners among all race classes this year when all races are adjusted for field size of 10. The gap is .44 points lower than allowance races, which is second-lowest and as much as .85 points compared to claiming races, the highest. Of the 5 classes, maiden claiming favorites fell right in the middle at third-highest in terms of win rate and ROI for betting on them. Maiden claiming races were second-least likely for longshot winners at 10-1 or more at .2 percent behind stakes races.

Bottom line:

Claiming and allowance races both are clearly less predictable overall than maiden claiming races when searching the race conditions for ‘spread’ races. Their winners pay more on average, their favorites win less often, and their longshots strike at a significantly higher rate. The assumption that maiden claiming races invite chaos is false based on this year’s numbers nationally.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does your favorite track stack up with the national average? Do these numbers shift between turf, dirt and synthetic surfaces?

Red Smith S. at Aqueduct
11F on Turf (November 18)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 16 graded turf stakes at Aqueduct, 11 furlongs or longer
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey This Year
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%) $30.70 Win Return, (176 ROI%), 10 Place (50%), $15.50 Place Return, 12Show (60%) $8.40 Show Return.

'It's a riders race' is sometimes posited by racing broadcasters, especially when a field is evenly matched. While scanning the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insight on the Red Smith Stakes, we found the big data handicapping version of this adage.

Angler tells us that the horse ranking first in the Jockey This Year handicapping factor has won 30% of the graded turf marathons at Aqueduct over the past 9 years while generating positive across-the-board returns

Four of the past six Red Smith heroes are among the sample including the last two winners Sadler's Joy ($4.70) and Village King ($11.80).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The best 2-year-olds already have debuted and won by the time November rolls around.

Background:

Post-Breeders’ Cup, there’s some natural thought among those who follow the game that the 2-year-old scene has already seen its generational best. The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, as well as $3 million worth of 2-year-old turf races already are in the rear-view mirror. Surely, the assumption, is that the best already were unveiled to aim at those prizes. But are rookies in November and December any less potent than their summer/early fall classmates?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the win rates of first-time starting 2-year-olds by month of the year.

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2021 April debut 2-year-olds won 14.3% with a $0.47 ROI.
2021 May debut 2-year-olds won 16.7% with a $0.75 ROI.
2021 June debut 2-year-olds won 12.4% with a $0.60 ROI.
2021 July debut 2-year-olds won 11.2% with a $0.80 ROI.
2021 August debut 2-year-olds won 11.1% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 September debut 2-year-olds won 10.2% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 October debut 2-year-olds won 9.3% with a $0.79 ROI.
2021 November so far debut 2-year-olds have won 8.7% with a $0.69 ROI.

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Last 3 years April debut 2-year-olds won 14% with a $0.59 ROI.
Last 3 years May debut 2-year-olds won 15.1% with a $0.86 ROI.
Last 3 years June debut 2-year-olds won 12.8% with a $0.71 ROI.
Last 3 years July debut 2-year-olds won 11.2% with a $0.79 ROI.
Last 3 years August debut 2-year-olds won 10.5% with a $0.74 ROI.
Last 3 years September debut 2-year-olds won 9.8% with a $0.76 ROI.
Last 3 years October debut 2-year-olds won 9.0% with a $0.78 ROI.
Last 3 years November so far debut 2-year-olds have won 8.5% with a $0.86 ROI.
Last 3 years December debut 2-year-olds won 8.7% with a $0.87 ROI.

Overall Findings:

May is the month most likely for first-time starting 2-year-old success and the percentages drop consistently throughout the summer and fall. Whether you’re looking at the current year or the last 3-year average, the pattern remains similar. The ROI rises significantly late in the year among the 2-year-olds in the 3-year average despite the drop in win percentage.

Bottom line:

While there are more first-time starters by nature at the beginning of the season, the win rates for those are unarguably in a pattern that shows it's more and more unlikely to debut a winner as the season goes on. This perceived handicapping axiom is validated as true by the numbers, even if the occasional star is unveiled later in the year. The 3-year-range’s November-December ROI rise may indicate the public’s perception of this trend to avoid first-time starters actually creates some overlay prices. You’re less likely to find them, but when you do, they are worth the dig.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, analyze these juvenile debut stats by your favorite tracks to see how they hold up.

Artie Schiller S. at Aqueduct
8F on Turf (November 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 69 8-furlong non-graded turf stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 104 contenders, 35 winners (33%) 24.30 Win Return, (111 ROI%), 54 Place (51%), $1.70 Place Return, 70 Show (67%,

Racing has returned to Aqueduct for the long New York winter but there is still some quality turf racing confronting horseplayers at the Queens oval. Saturday's Artie Schiller Stakes is a good example.

An even dozen are slated to face the starter in the race named for the 2005 Breeders' Cup Mile winner. The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one third of the winners of the 8-furlong non-graded grass miles at The Big A have been won by the horse ranking first in the Average Speed Last 3 handicapping factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

November 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk via https://www.xpressbet.com/

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The opening of Aqueduct is a letdown for bettors of the New York circuit.

Background:

The year-round racing schedule in New York shifts to Aqueduct on Thursday and will continue at the winter stomping grounds until next spring. Sure, it’s not the coliseum at Belmont nor the cathedral at Saratoga in terms of a physical plant. And while the racing product, too, is an obvious drop-off, the real question poised to those betting the horses here: Is the betting also a letdown?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 years and looked at all results at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga to get a feel for just how similar or different the results are between the NYRA circuit locales. I wanted to see the average win odds, percentage of winning favorites and likelihood of longshots (10-1) on the racing product. The everyday racing notwithstanding, I wanted to see how stakes races also compared at these betting markers since Belmont and Saratoga are so renowned for their championship quality.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct has been 4.89-1.
The average win odds at Belmont has been 5.08-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga has been 5.00-1.

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Favorites win 35.6% at Aqueduct.
Favorites win 35.6% at Belmont.
Favorites win 34.2% at Saratoga.

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Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.3% win rate at Aqueduct.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Belmont.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Saratoga.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct in stakes races has been 5.22-1.
The average win odds at Belmont in stakes races has been 4.51-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga in stakes races has been 4.65-1.

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Stakes favorites win 36.8% at Aqueduct
Stakes favorites win 40.6% at Belmont
Stakes favorites win 38.5% at Saratoga

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Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.0% win rate at Aqueduct.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 3.7% win rate at Belmont.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.1% win rate at Saratoga.

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Overall Findings:

Aqueduct produces a slightly lower average win payout than Belmont or Saratoga, but only .11 and .19 lower per odds point, meaning 22 cents and 38 cents per $2 wager. The percentage of winning favorites at Belmont and Aqueduct is identical with Saratoga 1.4% less likely for favorites. When it comes to upsets, Aqueduct is slightly less likely to produce an upset winner by .2% compared to Belmont and Saratoga. In the stakes races, Aqueduct has produced slightly higher average payoffs and a corresponding lower rate of winning favorites.

Bottom line:

The aesthetics are different, the quality of horses different, and more dirt racing than turf, but the results the past 5 years at Aqueduct mirror what we see on the NYRA circuit at its sister tracks, Belmont and Saratoga. There’s no massive shift in results at any of these three venues. From a betting standpoint, there’s no letdown at the Big A.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, are there particular class levels at Aqueduct that are more attractive to bet than at the other NYRA venues?

Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar
10F on Dirt (November 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 Grade 1 10-furlong dirt stakes at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 6 winners (50%, $6.00 Win Return, 125 ROI%), 7 Place (58%), 8 Show (66%,

The Breeders' Cup returns to Del Mar for a second time this weekend and will be capped off by an especially strong and compelling edition of the Classic.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping was built to help horseplayers with tough races like this one and once again it provides some important insights.

Half of the contenders in past 10 mile and one quarter dirt Grade 1s at Del Mar have ranked first in the Average Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor. The $6.00 Win Return is lower than we typically like to shoot for but the data from the 2017 season may prove to be particularly instructive.

That year it pointed to the defeat of favored Arrogate in both the Pacific Classic, won by Collected ($8.00) and the first Classic held at Del Mar, won by Gun Runner. His $6.00 win payout certainly seems like a bargain in hindsight.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Fayette S. (G2) at Keeneland
9F on Dirt (October 29)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 36 graded 9-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 9 winners (24%, $51.80 Win Return, 170 ROI%), 18 Place (48%, $24.30 Place Return), 24 Show (60%, $17.50 Show Return)

A salty field of 9 older horses square off in the Fayette Stakes, the closing day feature of Keeneland's fall meeting.

Some of the entrants are grizzled veterans hoping for burnish stallion resumes, some looking to break through with a first graded stakes victory.

The Betmix online handicapping database helps cut through all of the noise and focus in on the top handicapping factors for each racetype. In this instance, Angler tells us that the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace handicapping factor has point to nearly 25% winners and nearly 65% in-the-money finished while generating very nice Win, Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Hill Prince S. (G2)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed: Last 42 9-furlong turf stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 43 contenders, 12 winners (27%) $32.00 Win Return, 19 place (44%) & 27 show (62%).

Saturday's Hill Prince S. is one of the dwindling opportunities for 3-year-old grass runners to stay in their own division before facing runners of all ages after the end of the year.

Not surprisingly, 11 runners have entered the fray making this an especially tough race for bettors to analyze. That's where the Betmix Angler online handicapping database comes in.

Angler tells us that the Horses Beaten % factor has pointed to 27% winners of this race type, producing a sparkling $32 Win Return along with 62% in-the-money finishes.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed: Last 10 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 3 winners (30%) $25.60 Win Return, 4 place (40%) $8.20 Place return & 6 show (60%), 3.50 Show return.

The Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup typically draws a deep and competitive field of 3-year-old filly turfers and this year is no exception.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping data base to scan the 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland. We discovered that his race type is relatively rare at the historic Lexington course - only 10 such races have been carded since 2012.

However we were able glean some perspective and Angler tells us that the Horses Beaten % factor has pointed to 60% in-the-money finishes and a 30% winning clip that's generated a very nice $25.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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