Autumn Days S.
6F on turf at Aqueduct (December 7)
Races Analyzed: Last 13 turf stakes at Aqueduct going 6 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%) $37.00 Win Return, 8 place/show (61%) $9.60 place return, $8.80 show return

Saturday is the last big day of 2019 on the NYRA circuit with a six-stakes card at Aqueduct. Among them is the Autumn Days going 6 furlongs on the grass.

Turf sprint stakes are relatively new at The Big A - only 13 have been run in the past 8 years - but the Betmix Angler handicapping database reveals a positive trend.

The Average Last 3 E2 Pace factor has produced 30% winners and over 60% the money finishes in this race type while showing healthy Win ($37), Place (9.60) and Show ($8.80) returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Jimmy Durante S. & Cecil B. DeMille S. (G3)
8F on turf at Del Mar (November 30 & December 1)
Races Analyzed: Last 26 juvenile turf stakes, one mile on Del Mar turf
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Earnings Today's Distance
Factor Stats: 36 contenders, 10 winners (27%) $20.40 Win Return (128% Win ROI), 19 place/show (52%) $2.50 show return.

A pair of competitive juvenile turf stakes - Saturday's Jimmy Durante S. and Sunday's Cecil B. DeMille S. - help close out the final weekend of 2019 racing at Del Mar.

We queried the Betmix Angler handicapping database for clues to success in the juvenile turf stakes going a mile over the Del Mar lawn and found that Average Earnings Today's Distance has yielded a solid win profit.

The factor has pointed to 27% winners of this racetype and over half of the contenders have factored in the trifecta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Earnings Today's Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Red Smith S. (G3)
11F on turf at Aqueduct (November 23)
Races Analyzed: Last 12 marathon graded turf stakes at Aqueduct (11 furlongs or longer).
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Jockey Current Year
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 5 winners (33%) $36.00 Win Return, 11 place/show (73%) $22.50 place return, $15.80 show return

The Sharp Angles blog has provided valuable handicapping insights to readers all year, especially the past two weeks. Last Saturday, the Betmix Angler database highlighted Mr. Misunderstood ($11.20) in the River Cities H. and the week prior Mr. Dumas ($21.40) was the Sharp Angles play in the Commonwealth Turf.

This week we queried the Angler handicapping database for insights in the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct that drew an overflow field. We found that Jockey Current Year has been predictive in the graded turf marathons over the Aqueduct lawn.

The factor has pointed to 33% winners of this racetype including 3 of the past 6 Red Smith winners - Imaging ($8.30 to win), Mr Maybe ($6.80) and Village King ($11.80) last year.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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River CitiesS. (G3)
9F on turf at Churchill Downs (November 16)
Races Analyzed: Last 30 9-furlong turf graded stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Win %
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 11 winners (29%) $18.00 Win Return, 20 place/show (54%) $11.00 place return.

Sharp Angles readers were pointed to a nice score last Saturday at Churchill when Mr Dumas returned $21.40 to his backers in the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs. We head back to the Churchill turf this week for the 10-horse River Cities Stakes.

We queried the Betmix Angler handicapping database for 9-furlong grass stakes under the Twin Spires and found that Win % has been a positive factor.

The factor has pointed to nearly 30% winners who've generated a Win Return of $18.

Among the winners is last year's River Cities conqueror Mr. Misunderstood who will defend his title on Saturday. Is he the one again? Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Win % slider to find out.

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Commonwealth Turf S. (G3)
8.5F on turf at Churchill Downs (November 9)
Races Analyzed: Last 28 8.5-furlong turf graded stakes for 3YOs at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 26 contenders, 8 winners (30%) $38.90 Win Return, 14 place/show (53%) $5.00 place return & 4.10 show return.

Breeders' Cup swallowed up many of the early November graded races in North America, leaving just one this weekend. But it's a good one. The Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes for sophomore turfers has drawn an overflow field.

Competitive races like this are perfect for Betmix Angler handicapping database analysis. Sure enough, we found a profitable predictive factor for this race type.

Average of Last 3 Late Pace is that factor and it's pointed to 30% winners, 53% in-the-money finishers and yielded positive returns across the board. And it's already worked this year with last spring's American Turf S. (G2) hero Digital Age ($19.20) among the winners.

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Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)
10F on dirt at Santa Anita (November 2)
Races Analyzed: Last 16 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%) $43.40 Win Return, 13 place/show (76%) $9.00 place return & 8.50 show return.

Here we go! Will it be the filly or the favorite? Baffert or McGaughey? Rosario or Smith?

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic is more riddle than most in recent years so we turned to the Betmix Angler handicapping database to look for some answers.

Looking at the 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's at Santa Anita since 2012, a span that includes a trio of BC Classics, we found that Last Late Pace has been a good predictor.

Over one third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have emerged with a trophy sparking a very generous Win Return of $43.40. Among the winners are Classic champs Arrogate ($5.40) and Mucho Macho Man ($10.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Paceslider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Fayette S. (G2)
9F on dirt at Keeneland (October 26)
Races Analyzed: Last 29 runnings of 9 furlong dirt graded stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average of Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27.58%) $65.00 Win Return, 19 place/show (65%) $24.60 place return & 20 show return.

The Keeneland Fall Meeting winds down with one more competitive stakes races - the Grade 2 Fayette for older males.

We used the Betmix Angler database to look for profitable historical handicapping factors in the recent 9-furlong graded stakes at Keeneland. It turns out that Average of Last 3 E1 Pace is one such factor.

Over a quarter of the contenders have found the winner's circle and over two-thirds have contributed to the trifecta. This factor has also shown very strong across-the-board returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Dowager S. (G3)
12F on turf at Keeneland (October 20)
Races Analyzed: Last 26 runnings of 12 furlong turf graded stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: 52 contenders, 8 winners (15.38%) $37.20 Win Return, 20 place/show (38%) $19.20 place return & 11.40 show return.

The starting gate will be bursting for the 12-furlong Dowager Stakes, the Sunday feature at Keeneland. A turf marathon with a full field of quality fillies and mares begged analysis from the Betmix Angler handicapping database. And, sure enough, we found a factor that points to a longshot in a very competitive field.

We discovered that the human connections have tended to point to profits in this race type a the famed Lexington course. Horses ranked first in Trainer Jockey Return on Investment (ROI) Meet have produced a healthy win return of $37.20. Over a third of the contenders figuring in the tri, while also generating double digit place and show returns. This group includes Nakamura, the 6-1 runner-up in Thursday's Sycamore Stakes.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer Jockey ROI Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed: Last 6 runnings of the race
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 7 contenders, 3 winners (42%) $8.60 Win Return, 5 place/show (71%) $1.60 place return & 6.70 show return.

The final Grade 1 of the Keeneland Fall meeting is the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup and it's a good one, with six of the nine fillies already Graded stakes winners.

We used the Betmix Angler handicapping data base to scan the last six runnings of the QE II Challenge Cup and found that Average Last 3 Turn Time has been highly predictive.

Around 42% of the qualifiers contenders have had their pictures taken and 72% have hit the board. There have only been two double-digit winners of this race and this factor has pointed to one of them - 2013 heroine Kitten's Dumplings who paid out $11.80. This factor also selected 20-1 Madam Dancelot, 3rd in the 2017 edition.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Alcibiades S. & Breeders Futurity
8.5F on dirt at Keeneland (October 4 & 5)
Races Analyzed: Last 14 dirt graded stakes @for 2YOs at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%) $14.00 Win Return, 9 place/show (64%) $5.80 place return & 1.90 show return.

Keeneland is back with another tremendous "Fall Stars' weekend featuring many of the top horses in North America.

With the Alcibiades Stakes for fillies and the Breeders' Futurity for the colts, we will start to get a better idea of which flashy summer sprinters might be able to stay a route of ground. This uncertainty is one of the reasons these early two-turn juvenile races can be difficult to decipher.

Enter the Betmix Angler handicapping database. We queried Angler to mine the data on the 8.5 furlong juvenile dirt stakes at Keeneland since 2012 and found that Average Lifetime Earnings has been a key handicapping factor.

Around 42% of the qualifiers have crossed the wire in front and over two-thirds have hit the board. Among the winners are a trio of Alcibiades heroines, including the last two - Restless Rider ($4.60) & Heavenly Love ($13.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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