Go For Wand H. & Cigar Mile H. at Aqueduct
8F on Dirt (December 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 24 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked in Top 3 Days Since Last Race & 1st in In The Money %
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 6 winners (33%, $68.00 flat win bet profit, 288 ROI%), 10 win/place/show ($25.20 flat place bet return & $7.50 flat show bet return)

NYRA hosts its last big race card of the year on Saturday, December 1. The four-stakes menu is anchored by the Grade 1 Cigar Mile and also features the Grade 2 Go For Wand H. for the distaffers going a flat mile. A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping software reveals that recency and consistency have been strong indicators in the 8-furlong graded races on the Aqueduct main track. The final formula reads: rank among the top 3 in Days Since Last Race along with showing first in In The Money %.

Of the 18 runners in this race type who've qualified, one third have found the winner's circle producing a very generous $68 flat win bet profit. Four more contenders have hit the board sparking very good place bet ($25.20) and show bet ($7.50) returns.

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Oakland S. at Golden Gate Fields
6F on All-Weather (November 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 30 6-furlong main track stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 40 contenders, 11 winners (27%, $46.80 flat win bet profit, 158 ROI%), 18 win/place (45%, $4.30 flat place return)

The Oakland Stakes, Saturday's feature at Golden Gate Fields has drawn a healthy field of nine older male sprinters. Using the Betmix Angler Handicapping software to analyze the past 30 sprint stakes at the Northern California oval we found that Last Turn Time has been a very positive factor for this race type.

11 of the 40 contenders ranking first Last Turn Time have had their pictures taken and this factor appears to be on an upward trajectory with Tribal Storm taking the Lost in the Fog Stakes earlier this year at 20-1.

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Richard W. Small S. at Laurel
8F on Dirt (November 10)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 34 contenders, 12 winners (35%, $58.60 flat win bet profit, 186 ROI%), 15 win/place (44%, $10.90 flat place return)

The two-day Breeders' Cup extravaganza has come and gone but there is a still a wealth of stakes action across the country this weekend, including a five-stakes Saturday card at Laurel Park. The $100,000 Richard W. Small Stakes is one of those and it's drawn an overflow field of 15 older males.

When tough races like this arise it's wise to turn to the Betmix Handicapping software. Looking at the last 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel we find that Last Late Pace has pointed to 12 winners that have produced a very healthy Win Return of $58.60. Among the winners is Afleet Willy, who found the winner's circle in this race last year at an $8.60 win mutuel

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint & Turf Sprint
5.5F on Turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 141 turf sprints at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 149 contenders, 34 winners (22%, $30,60 Win Return), 60 Win/Place (40% $3.20 Place Return)

Turf Sprints have grown in number at North American tracks in recent years and there are now a pair of Breeders' Cup contests for the speedy turfers - Friday's inaugural Juvenile Turf Sprint and Saturday's Turf Sprint. Both races will be contested at 5.5F over the Churchill Downs turf course.

We have a good-sized sample of 141 turf sprints to analyze in the Betmix Angler handicapping software and we found a profitable angle for this race type. Average of Last 3 E1 Pace turns out to be a solid predictor of success with a 22% Win% and a sparkling $30.60 Win Return. The 40% total Win/Place rate also indicates this Factor is a good place to start when looking for a horse to key in these always competitive races.

Another resource for handicapping North American turf sprints is the May 31 Pedigree Handicapping analysis of turf sprint sires.

Best of luck on Breeders Cup weekend!

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When Breeders' Cup pre-entries were announced on October 24, a total of 23 horses were cross-entered in multiple Breeders' Cup races. In most cases the connections have all but decided which race to target but there are a few decisions yet to be finalized. We decided to utilize the Sire Search feature within the Betmix handicapping software to see if any insights could be gleaned.

Perhaps the biggest Breeders' Cup decision to be made is with Roaring Lion. Will he go in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the Churchill Downs main track or stay on course for the Turf over a surface on which he's already won a quartet of Group 1's?

Below is the Turf vs. Dirt performance comparison for stakes starters by Roaring Lion's sire, Kitten's Joy, along with the dirt stakes distance comparisons for the stallions Quality Road and Uncle Mo. The connections of the Quality Road son City of Light will choose between the $1,000,000 Dirt Mile and the 10-furlong $6,000,000 Classic. Uncle Mo's Mopotism has secured a spot in the $2,000,000 Distaff at 9 furlongs and is the first alternate for the 7-furlong $1,000,000 Filly & Mare Sprint.

Maryland Millions Turf at Laurel
8F on Turf (October 20)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 8-furlong turf stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%, $15.80 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%), 14 win/place/show (77%, $3.60 flat place return, $2.10 flat show return)

The annual Jim McKay Maryland Millions day at Laurel features 11 stakes for thoroughbreds born in the Free State. Among the more competitive stakes is the Maryland Millions Turf which drew a full field of 11 with three more waiting on the also-eligibles list.

While a good grass pedigree may seem obvious for success in a turf stakes, this factor has definitely proven profitable in this race type. And by using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we can zero in on exactly which runner has the highest-rated turf pedigree. Runners ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking have won 8 of the past 18 one-mile stakes over the Laurel turf course (44%), producing a $15.80 Win Return (along with plus Place & Show Returns).

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Floral Park S. at Belmont Park
6F on Turf (October 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 27 6-furlong turf stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Win % 2yrs./Race Type
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 9 winners (37%, $99.70 flat win bet profit, 307 ROI%), 17 win/place/show (70%, $29.20 flat place return, $21.20 flat show return)

Since the first Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was carded in 2008 (and won by Desert Code), sprint stakes are being run at an ever increasing rate at North American tracks. The inaugural Floral Park Stakes on October 13 at Belmont Park is a case in point. The 6-furlong dash on the grass has drawn an overflow field of distaff turf sprinters.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that paying attention to trainers in these turf sprints is paying big dividends. The Trainer Win % Past 2 Years this Race Type has produced an astounding $99.70 Win Return and over 70% of the horses ranking first in this factor have hit the board, producing juicy Place and Show Returns to boot.

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The Keeneland Fall meeting will feature some important turf events leading up to the Breeders' Cup not to mention a slew of competitive 'undercard' grass races. With the ability to search for sire data in the Betmix Angler handicapping software, we decided to investigate which sires' progeny have performed best for bettors in recent years.

Based on our findings the sons and daughters of The Factor and Artie Schiller bear particularly close watching. Like his grandsire (Danzig) and sire (War Front) The Factor was best in one-turn dirt races. And, like many from his sire-line, he's siring a lot of successful grass runners. From a small sample of 17 runners his progeny have won over 23% of their starts over the Keeneland lawn. Among them is the Wesley Ward-trained Bound For Nowhere, winner of the $19 winner of the Shakertown S. (G2) at the Keeneland Spring meeting.

As a Sadler's Wells grandson and winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile, Artie Schiller was always expected to sire good grass performers. Over 20% of his runners over the Keeneland turf have found the winner's circle. All but one of them has paid double-digits in doing so, leading to his spectacular $102.20 Win Return.

The charts below show the Keeneland turf figures for the Top 25 stallions on the North American General Sires List as of October 3.

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win % 

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win Return

After a spring/summer of North American racing we have the initial returns on the new sire class of 2018. Betmix Angler's Sire Search feature allows us to parse the data so far and the chart below shows results for stallions with at least 15 starters through September 24.

Spendthrift Farm's Cross Traffic (by Unbridled's Song) leads his crop in the early going with a 26% Win rate and profitable Win & Place Returns. Half of his runners have finished in the money, indicating there could very well be more winners in the near future for the 2013 Whitney H. (G1) winner. The progeny of Hopeful S. (G1) winner Strong Mandate, a son of Tiznow, may also bear watching as he ranks second with a 20% Win rate and full 60% of his runners have hit the board.

Revolutionary (by War Pass), winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Pimlico Special (G3), has been the most profitable First Crop sire so far with a $69.40 Win Return buoyed by a pair of big-priced debut winners - Esterina in a Waiver Maiden Claimer at Delaware Park and Maiden Beauty, the $47.60 winner of the Lynbrook Stakes at Belmont Park.

Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G3) at Laurel
6F on Dirt (September 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 20 Laurel 6 furlong dirt stakes (3yo and up)
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 20 winners (35%, $72.20 flat win bet profit, 164 ROI%), 27 win/place (48%, $.70 flat place bet return)

The De Francis Dash has been moved around the calendar quite a bit since its inception in 1990. The most recent shuffle came just last week when Laurel track management moved the race back seven days to September 22 to avoid Hurricane Florence.

A competitive 9-horse field goes postward in this year's edition and the Betmix Angler handicapping software can offer some insight. Looking at the last 20 (non-juvenile) dirt sprint stakes at Laurel we find that Best Speed Last 3 has shown a very juicy Win Return, $72.20 in fact. The sample includes a pair of 2018 winners of this race type in Rocky Policy ($7.80) and Chalon ($3.60).

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