Elkhorn S. (G2)
12F on the turf at Keeneland (April 22)
Races Analyzed: 17 stakes at 12 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 6 winners (28%, $82 flat win bet profit, 295 ROI%), 11 1st or 2nd (52%, $42.40 flat place bet profit, 201 ROI%, 13 on the board, 61% $18.60 flat show bet profit, 144 ROI%)

Sometimes finding a winner is as easy as hopping aboard with the hottest jockey. That appears to be the way to go in the marathon turf stakes at Keeneland. The past 17 12-furlong stakes at the Lexington oval have yielded a total of 21 contenders ranked first in Jockey Current Meet. Six (28.6%) have won, four at double-digit odds. The flat win bet profit on those 21 contenders is a juicy $82.

Nearly two thirds of the contenders have hit the board so this factor is definitely the place to start when putting together an exotics ticket.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Giant’s Causeway S. - Lajatico 11th at 22-1

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Giant’s Causeway S.
5.5F on the turf at Keeneland (April 15)
Races Analyzed: 18 stakes at 5.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 3 winners (12%, $59.80 flat win bet profit, 219 ROI%), 7 1st or 2nd (28%, $21.80 flat place bet profit, 142 ROI%)

While the 12% win percentage on this Angle is certainly a cause for pause we thought it was worth highlighting anyway. Last E1 Pace has not only shown some real longshot potential in the Keeneland turf sprint stakes but it’s also a newly emerging Angle.

Exaggerated, the $22 winner of last year’s edition of this race, ranked first in Last E1 Pace. And just last Saturday in the Shakertown S., the male counterpart to the Giant’s Causeway, this Angle pointed the winner Holding Gold ($38.20) and runner-up Green Mask. That pair combined on a $189 exacta payout.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Transylvania S. - Holiday Stone 2nd at 34-1, Ticonderoga 4th at 2-1
Gazelle S. - Aspen Hllltop 9th at 24-1
Wood Memorial - Mo Town 7th at 3.80-1

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Wood Memorial (G2) & Gazelle S. (G2)
9F on the dirt at Aqueduct (April 8)
Races Analyzed: 16 graded stakes for 3YOs at 9 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $12.10 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 8 first or second (47%, $6.90 flat place bet profit, 120 ROI%)

Racing at Aqueduct has shifted from the Inner Dirt track to the main oval which allows for 9 furlong races. And there are two big ones this Saturday, the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes, both Grade 2 stepping stones to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.

Looking at the past 16 graded dirt races for sophomores going 9 furlongs we find that Distance Pedigree Rating has been a predictive factor. This makes intuitive sense too as many of these contestants are trying 9 furlongs for the first time. In fact, the past two Wood winners have ranked first in this factor - Outwork ($6.80) last April and Frosted ($6.40) in 2015. We also find 2013 Gazelle heroine Close Hatches ($4.50) in this sample.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Distance Pedigree Rating slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Transylvania S. (G3)
8.5F on the turf at Keeneland (April 7)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5F furlongs on turf
Date Range: April 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 3 winners (20%, $3.80 flat win bet profit, 112 ROI%), 6 first or second (40%, $2.40 flat place bet profit, 108 ROI%)

Opening day of the Keeneland Spring meeting signals the real end of winter for thoroughbred racing fans and handicappers. The first Spring card once again features the Transylvania Stakes (G3) for sophomore male turfers and we found a useful Angle for this contest.

To begin our search we first narrowed our criteria down to look only at Keeneland graded grass races for three-year-olds (male and female). We found there have been eight such races since 2013 and they've yielded 15 contenders ranked first in the In the Money % factor. 20% of these are winners who have shown a small flat win bet profit. In this case we can accept these figures because it's been especially predictive in the Transylvania with two recent winners - Shakhimat ($14.20) last opening day and Jack Milton ($7.20) in 2013. Three more runners have completed the exacta in this sample, including Up With the Birds who combined with Jack Milton for a $35 exacta.

How to play: find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse or horses ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Last week’s results:
Florida Derby: Gunnevera 3rd at $1.10-1, Talk Logistics 6th at $48-1, Coleman Rocky 7th at $103-1.
Mervin Muniz H.: Kasaqui 2nd at $1.90-1.

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Skip Away S. (G3)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (March 25)
Races Analyzed: 14 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $107.80 flat win bet profit, 369 ROI%, 10 total win/place, $14.50 flat place bet profit, 136 ROI%).

The Grade 3 Skip Away anchors the March 25 card at Gulfstream Park and has drawn a competitive field of six. The lineup includes Team Colors runner-up in last year’s addition to Valid, who ranked first in Last Turn Time. Valid paid a paltry $2.80 that day but this factor has pointed to seven other 9-furlong Gulfstream Park main track graded winners, two of them at double-digit mutuels. Mshawish, for instance, captured the 2016 Donn Handicap (G1), paying $11.20. The big fish in this sample though is Gamay Noir who got home first in the 2014 Rampart Handicap (G3) at 49-1.

Most handicappers can be expected to 'zig' and focus on early speed and overall speed ratings in a dirt stake like this. With this Sharp Angle Betmix users have the opportunity to 'zag' to a solid payout.

Last Week’s Results - Conquest Fahrenheit ($4.20) 1st in Pasadena Stakes.

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Many Betmix users rely heavily on the picks in the Handicapping Overview section of BirdDog. One of the most popular sections is the MixBot picks.

We've made some additional data available, and we think you will find that information very useful.

If you are not sure what MixBot does, here is a brief explanation: There is an ideal way to handicap any race. If you created a mix using a certain set of factors, and weighed those factors correctly you would have identified the winner. Of course that is much easier to do after the race than before it. If you have used MixMaker before, that's what it attempts to do - it will identify the factors that should have been used to pick the winner and then creates a mix using those factors.

MixBot does the same thing, but it goes out and finds several similar races and creates mixes for each one of them. Then it will apply the mixes it created to the race you are currently handicapping. In the past, MixBot only looked at 4 races.

Now we are grabbing the results of 12 races and displaying them in the Handicapping Overview section. We find 3 races where the winner was a heavy favorite (paid $6 or less), 3 races with a moderate favorite (paid $6.01 - $10), 3 races with a moderate longshot (paid $10.01 - $20), and 3 races where the winner was a longshot that paid more than $20.

Looking at the Mixbot mixes segmented by what the winner paid in past races gives you a better idea of what might happen today. If you see the heavy favorite on top in the mixes based on races won by favorites then you might expect the same to happen today. If you see a longshot on top in the longshot mixes, then that is a horse to pay attention to...

There are several ways to use this information to help you find more logical plays, especially if you are looking for a few likely horses in multi-race wagers.

Take a look at the new stuff in the Free Race Of The Day.

Hot Springs S.
6F on the dirt at Oaklawn Park (March 11)
Races Analyzed: 70 stakes at 6F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 74 contenders, 24 winners (32%, $34.80 flat win bet profit, 123.5 ROI%).

Confidence. That can be the difference between a two-fisted bet and a more tepid wager. A fast race over the same surface is certainly a prime handicapping factor to consider. In 6-furlong dirt stakes at Oaklawn Park Betmix Angler tells us, with confidence, that Best Speed Today’s Track is the factor to isolate.

34% of the 74 qualifying runners since 2013 have won this race type and a $2 win bet on all would have yielded a profit of $34.80 (123.5 ROI%). In 2017 there have already been a quintet of 6-furlong dirt stakes in Hot Springs and three of them have been conquered by the runner ranking first in Best Speed Today’s Track. The average payoff of those three is $8.33.

Last Week's Results - Bird Song ($8.20) 1st in Fred W. Hooper Stakes, Pretty City Dancer 6th at 3-1 in Davona Dale Stakes.

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Davona Dale S. (G2) & Fred W. Hooper S. (G3) 
8F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (March 4)
Races Analyzed: 17 graded stakes at 8F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 6 winners (26%, $49.40 flat win bet profit, 207 ROI%), 13 total in the money (56%, $19.40 flat place bet profit, 143 ROI% & $8.10 flat bet show profit 117 ROI%)

The mile distance, especially at the graded level, often demands a perfect combination of speed and stamina. So perhaps it’s not surprising to find that Distance Pedigree Rank has pointed to some juicy long shots in 8 furlong graded events on the Gulfstream Park main track.

Case in point is Ekati’s Phaeton, the $55.60 winner of the 2015 Davona Dale S. for sophomore fillies. It’s true that the daughter of Tale of Ekati is a big reason why this factor is in the black, but she’s also an example of why it’s likely so effective. She was a three-time winner, including a graded race, at 6 furlongs but had failed to hit the board in her previous races at a mile (on the turf) and at 7 furlongs. Her Distance Pedigree Rank made those efforts easier to forgive and made it easier to take a chance on her at 26-1.

The Distance Pedigree Rank factor can also be applied to the 8 furlong graded races for older runners like Saturday’s Fred W. Hooper Stakes. Fairly priced winners like Mshawish ($6.40/2016 Hal’s Hope S., Honor Code ($7.00/2015 Gulfstream Park H.) and Lea ($14.80/2014 Hal’s Hope S.) were all contenders on this factor.

Last Sharp Angles results: Enterprising ($8.00) 1st in Fair Grounds H.

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