Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Classic

Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar
10F on Dirt (November 6)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 Grade 1 10-furlong dirt stakes at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 6 winners (50%, $6.00 Win Return, 125 ROI%), 7 Place (58%), 8 Show (66%,

The Breeders' Cup returns to Del Mar for a second time this weekend and will be capped off by an especially strong and compelling edition of the Classic.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping was built to help horseplayers with tough races like this one and once again it provides some important insights.

Half of the contenders in past 10 mile and one quarter dirt Grade 1s at Del Mar have ranked first in the Average Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor. The $6.00 Win Return is lower than we typically like to shoot for but the data from the 2017 season may prove to be particularly instructive.

That year it pointed to the defeat of favored Arrogate in both the Pacific Classic, won by Collected ($8.00) and the first Classic held at Del Mar, won by Gun Runner. His $6.00 win payout certainly seems like a bargain in hindsight.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Fayette S.

Fayette S. (G2) at Keeneland
9F on Dirt (October 29)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 36 graded 9-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 9 winners (24%, $51.80 Win Return, 170 ROI%), 18 Place (48%, $24.30 Place Return), 24 Show (60%, $17.50 Show Return)

A salty field of 9 older horses square off in the Fayette Stakes, the closing day feature of Keeneland's fall meeting.

Some of the entrants are grizzled veterans hoping for burnish stallion resumes, some looking to break through with a first graded stakes victory.

The Betmix online handicapping database helps cut through all of the noise and focus in on the top handicapping factors for each racetype. In this instance, Angler tells us that the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace handicapping factor has point to nearly 25% winners and nearly 65% in-the-money finished while generating very nice Win, Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Hill Prince S.

Hill Prince S. (G2)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed
: Last 42 9-furlong turf stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 43 contenders, 12 winners (27%) $32.00 Win Return, 19 place (44%) & 27 show (62%).

Saturday's Hill Prince S. is one of the dwindling opportunities for 3-year-old grass runners to stay in their own division before facing runners of all ages after the end of the year.

Not surprisingly, 11 runners have entered the fray making this an especially tough race for bettors to analyze. That's where the Betmix Angler online handicapping database comes in.

Angler tells us that the Horses Beaten % factor has pointed to 27% winners of this race type, producing a sparkling $32 Win Return along with 62% in-the-money finishes.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – QE II Challenge Cup

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed
: Last 10 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 3 winners (30%) $25.60 Win Return, 4 place (40%) $8.20 Place return & 6 show (60%), 3.50 Show return.

The Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup typically draws a deep and competitive field of 3-year-old filly turfers and this year is no exception.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping data base to scan the 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland. We discovered that his race type is relatively rare at the historic Lexington course - only 10 such races have been carded since 2012.

However we were able glean some perspective and Angler tells us that the Horses Beaten % factor has pointed to 60% in-the-money finishes and a 30% winning clip that's generated a very nice $25.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Alcibiades & Breeders Futurity

Alcibiades S & Breeders Futurity at Keeneland
8.5F on Dirt (October 8 & 9)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 G1 8.5-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 11 winners (36%, $19.60 Win Return, 132 ROI%), 16 Place (53%, $11.10 Place Return), 18 Show (60%)

Here we go! Keeneland roars back to life with typically deep and contentious cards to open up the 2021 Fall Meeting.

Perhaps the two toughest contests over the first three days of the meet are the two Grade 1's for the juvenile set, Friday's Alcibiades and Saturday's Breeders' Futurity. At least 12 starters are scheduled to break from the gate in each.

So what does the Betmix Angler online handicapping database have to say about these races? Angler tells us that the Average Lifetime Earnings handicapping factor has pointed to 36% winners of the recent 8.5 furlong dirt Grade 1s at the historic Lexington oval.

This factor has generated positive Win & Place returns while pointing to recent Alcibiades heroines like My Conquestadory ($4.40), Heavenly Love ($13.40) and Restless Rider ($4.60) along with Breeders' Futurity heroes like Maxfield ($14.80), Essential Quality ($5.80) and Free Drop Billy ($5.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Laurel Dash S.

Laurel Dash S. at Laurel
5.5F on Turf (October 2)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 48 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Laurel Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 54 contenders, 14 winners (25%, $87.20 Win Return, 180 ROI%), 19 Place (35%, $10.70 Place Return), 25 Show (46%, $4.90)

The 12-horse Laurel Dash is one of five stakes on a fantastic fall Saturday card at Laurel. With a full field going 5.5 furlongs over the Laurel lawn we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some help.

Sure enough, Angler tells us that 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace has pointed to 25% winners of this racetype AND an incredible $87.20 Win Return. This handicapping factor has also generated healthy positive Place & Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pacet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Violet S.

Violet S. at Monmouth
9.5F on Turf (September 25)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 33 8.5-furlong non-graded turf stakes at Monmouth Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet
Factor Stats: 35 contenders, 10 winners (28%, $34.60 Win Return, 149 ROI%), 12 Place (34%), 22 show (62%)

The grassy Violet Stakes anchors the September 25 card at Monmouth Park and it's drawn a very evenly-matched field of salty middle-distance mares.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that the human element has factored prominently in these 8.5-furlong non-graded events at the Jersey Shore. The Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet handicapping factor has pointed 28% winners of this race type while generating a juicy $34.60 win return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Canadian International

Canadian International S. (G1) at Woodbine
12F on Turf (September 18)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 15 12-furlong Grade 1 turf stakes at Woodbine
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 5 winners (29%, $96.50 Win Return, 383 ROI%), 5 Place (29%, $13.20 Place Return), 6 show (35%)

Woodbine offers horseplayers a competitive Saturday card anchored by a trio of graded stakes on the turf. Among those is the Grade 1 Canadian International that features defending champ Desert Encounter versus seven salty rivals.

Will the Desert Encounter repeat? We queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues and found that Best Speed This Distance has pointed to the winners of nearly one third of the recent 12-furlong Grade 1 grass contests at Woodbine. And the Win Return is a whopping $96.50!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed This Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Mint Ladies Sprint S. & Franklin-Simpson S.

Mint Ladies Sprint & Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs
6.5F on Turf (September 11, 2021)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 21 6.5-furlong graded stakes at Kentucky Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 8 winners (29%, $21.40 Win Return, 139 ROI%), 9 Place (33%), 10 show (37%)

The center of the racing world shifts from the coasts to bucolic Kentucky Downs on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. The Saturday card features 5 stakes worth nearly $4 million, including a pair of graded turf sprints, the Mint Ladies Sprint & the Franklin-Simpson.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database stores a wealth of data on races at the European-style course and we ran a query looking for positive handicapping factors for 6.5-furlong graded events. As usual the database didn't disappoint and revealed that horses ranking first in Best Speed Last 3 have won nearly one-third of these races while generating a $21.40 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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August Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries during August.

How Do Maidens Match Up in 2-Year-Old Stakes Races?

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American 2-year-old stakes races since 2013 and the performances of the maidens entered in those.

Click here to read more

Is It Harder for Sprinters to Maintain Their Form Than Route Runners?

The rigorous, all-out nature of sprint races leads many horseplayers to believe that it’s more difficult for these horses to maintain their best form. Sprint fields also are less spread-out typically than routes, giving more opportunity for bad racing luck.

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Is 10-furlongs a Hurdle for Horses to Prove Their Mettle? 

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American dirt races at one mile and one-quarter, finding 226 such races since 2014. The comparison will be for average winning payoff, percentage of winning favorites and percentage of races won by longshots 10-1 or more.

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Is Luis Saez Getting on the Best Mounts?

Horseplayers (and trainers) often will shrink the importance of riders and associate their success simply by who is the best passenger on the best horse. The winningest jockeys get the best mounts, or, the best mounts go to the jockeys atop the standings.

Click here to read more

July Handicapping Myths

May Handicapping Myths

April Handicapping Myths