Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Dirt (February 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 5 winners (27%, $52.60 Win Return, 256 ROI%), 12 show (66% $21.60 Place Return, $10.40 Show Return)

With each passing weekend the Kentucky Derby preps take on more and more importance. Case in point is Saturday's Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans that drew a field of 13 three-year-olds.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds.

This factor was particularly effective last year when the Risen Star was carded at 9 furlongs for the first time and run in two divisions. Enforceable, the 4.60-1 runner up in the 1st division was top-ranked in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace as was Modernist, the $27.60 winner of the 2nd division.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
8.5F on Dirt (February 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 19 contenders, 6 winners (31%, $27.80 flat win bet return, 173 ROI%), 8 show (42%)

The Sam F. Davis Stakes has drawn an overflow field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, presenting a big challenge for horseplayers.

We took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin to look for clues in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa and we uncovered a lucrative handicapping factor.

Last E2 pace has pointed to 31% winners of this race type overall but, more specifically to the last THREE Sam F. Davis winners, all of whom paid double digits - Flameaway ($22.80) in 2018, Well Defined ($16.00) in 2019 and last year's hero Sole Volante ($13.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E2 pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his January discoveries.

Can You Outsmart the Public?

I crunched the numbers in the Betmix database for every race over the past 5 years, beginning with the start of the 2016 season. I looked at how the public bet every horse in each race – from the favorite down to the 10th wagering choice in a race – and looked at the win percentages for each.
Click here to read more

Are Classier Races More Trustworthy?

You’ll often hear horseplayers lament that they just can’t get a grip on cheaper claiming races, or that maiden races are crapshoots. In turn, they claim to embrace the classier races and horses because they are more confident handicapping them due to their trustworthiness. The general consensus would argue this to be true.
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The Good and Bad of the Rail

Common dirt distances that I studied in the Betmix database are sprints at 6 furlongs, as well as routes as the most common 1-1/16 miles trip. Not only did I study the results by distance, but also field size. Does being on the rail differ in a 6-horse field vs. a fuller field? I also looked at the reliability of rail favorites. The timeframe included all North American tracks over the past 5 years.
Click here to read more

The Career Maiden

We could look at an excessive amount of maiden-breaking attempts as a subjective number. To some, it may be more than 5. Others 10. Even others somewhere in-between or above that total. No matter what your consideration of excessive may be, our ability to look at the numbers in various ranges should be able to give you personal confidence in your assumption, either for or against.
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Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park
8.5F on Dirt (January 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 35 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 40 contenders, 17 winners (42%, $52.80 flat win bet return, 166 ROI%), 32 win/place/show (80%, $4.90 flat place bet return & $6.90 flat show bet return)

Nine Florida-based 3-year-olds take the next step on the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby in Saturday's Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping databases shows that the Best Speed Fast Track factor has been key in the 8.5 furlong graded dirts stakes at Gulfstream and in the Holy Bull specifically.

Some 42% of contenders ranking first in this factor have won, producing a healthy $52.80 Win Return. Among the winners are FIVE Holy Bull heroes in the last decade - Audible ($8.40), Moyhamen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). The sample also includes last year's 4-1 runner-up Ete Indian.

What's more is the fact that 80% of the contenders have hit the board, so it surely looks wise strongly consider this factor into your Holy Bull wagering strategy.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Fast Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Pegasus World Cup (G1)
9F on Dirt at Gulfstream Park (September 23)
Races Analyzed: Last 16 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong Grade 1 dirt stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Win %
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 11 winners (52%) $44.80 Win Return, 206 ROI%, 12 place/show (57%) $10.20 Place Return

Racing fans will be treated to the first big Saturday of 2021 when Gulfstream offers its fifth annual Pegasus World Cup card.

We turned to the Betmix online handicapping database for a deeper perspective on the Pegasus and the query turned up a positive handicapping factor.

Win % has pointed to 52% winners in the 9-furlong dirt Grade 1s at Gulfstream Park. These winners include two of the first four PWC winners - Arrogate ($3.80) in 2017 and last year's champ Mucho Gusto ($8.80).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Last week we took a look at the 2020 juvenile sires that helped handicappers out the most. This week, we surveyed the Betmix Angler online database to shed light on the most profitable 2020 turf sires.

As in past years, we found that only a handful of stallions' progeny provided bettors with a year-long flat Win Return profit. In 2020 it was only three - Lookin At Lucky, Speightstown and Pioneerof the Nile.

What's useful, though, is that these three stallions are much better known for their dirt runners. With these results, Angler tells us to pay attention to these three sires grass runners in 2021, potentially providing an edge over horseplayers lacking this knowledge.

The Preakness-winning Curlin son Lookin At Lucky was a revelation. His Win Return was certainly buoyed by $149.20 winner Lessons from Avery in a May 24 Allowance contest at Churchill Downs. But he was anything but a one-hit wonder as evidenced by his sample-leading 31.04% turf Win % and he had 10 more 2020 turf winners that paid over $20 to win bettors.

Among the many handicapping advantages provided by Betmix Angler is the ability to search and parse sire data. This can come especially handy when analyzing juvenile races and turf contests.

We queried the Angler online database to analyze the top 25 juvenile sires of 2020 (according to The Blood-Horse rankings) to see which stallions benefitted bettors most last year.

A trio of first year sires lead the way in terms of Win Return - Not This Time and the Uncle Mo sons Nyquist and Laoban. Not This Time was also the leader with a 23.40 Win %.

The chart below shows all the 2020 data mined from Angler on these 25 sires.

Longtime Betmix user Matt Bickey won the Big Money tournament at Horsetourneys.com on Breeders' Cup weekend.

As all handicappers know, when you find a long shot everyone asks:

"How'd you find that horse?".

Matt has graciously taken the time to explain some of his methods in this great video.  

Hope you enjoy it as much as we did!

Richard R. Scherer Memorial S.
5.5F on Turf at Fair Grounds (December 19)
Races Analyzed: Last 50 Fair Grounds 5.5-furlong turf stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 15 winners (26%) 61.40 Win Return, 154 ROI%, 27 place/show (48%) $9.40 Place Return

It's Fair Grounds turn to offer a multiple stakes card on Saturday and horseplayers will be treated to six competitive blacktype events.

The Richard R. Scherer Memorial drew an especially tough field of 11 turf sprinters, so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help.

Angler tells us that In the Money % has yielded 26% winners who have generated a fantastic $61.40 Win Return. Nearly half of the contenders have, indeed, hit-the-board producing a plus Place Return as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Fort Lauderdale S. (G2)
9F on Turf at Gulfstream Park (December 12)
Races Analyzed: Last 20 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong graded turf stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%) $92.80 Win Return, 332 ROI%, 11 place/show (55%) $10.30 Place Return 7 $2.90 Show Return.

Gulfstream Park hosts a spectacular five-stakes card on Saturday that includes a very salty renewal of the Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2) for middle distance turfers.

This contest begged analysis from the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and, true to form, Angler highlighted a positive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded grass events in Hallandale, Florida.

Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to 30% winners of this race type, producing a mouth-watering $92.80 Win Return. Among the winners is last year's Ft. Lauderdale champ, Instilled Regard ($8.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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