Fayette S. (G2)
9F on dirt at Keeneland (October 26)
Races Analyzed: Last 29 runnings of 9 furlong dirt graded stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average of Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27.58%) $65.00 Win Return, 19 place/show (65%) $24.60 place return & 20 show return.

The Keeneland Fall Meeting winds down with one more competitive stakes races - the Grade 2 Fayette for older males.

We used the Betmix Angler database to look for profitable historical handicapping factors in the recent 9-furlong graded stakes at Keeneland. It turns out that Average of Last 3 E1 Pace is one such factor.

Over a quarter of the contenders have found the winner's circle and over two-thirds have contributed to the trifecta. This factor has also shown very strong across-the-board returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Dowager S. (G3)
12F on turf at Keeneland (October 20)
Races Analyzed: Last 26 runnings of 12 furlong turf graded stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: 52 contenders, 8 winners (15.38%) $37.20 Win Return, 20 place/show (38%) $19.20 place return & 11.40 show return.

The starting gate will be bursting for the 12-furlong Dowager Stakes, the Sunday feature at Keeneland. A turf marathon with a full field of quality fillies and mares begged analysis from the Betmix Angler handicapping database. And, sure enough, we found a factor that points to a longshot in a very competitive field.

We discovered that the human connections have tended to point to profits in this race type a the famed Lexington course. Horses ranked first in Trainer Jockey Return on Investment (ROI) Meet have produced a healthy win return of $37.20. Over a third of the contenders figuring in the tri, while also generating double digit place and show returns. This group includes Nakamura, the 6-1 runner-up in Thursday's Sycamore Stakes.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer Jockey ROI Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed: Last 6 runnings of the race
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 7 contenders, 3 winners (42%) $8.60 Win Return, 5 place/show (71%) $1.60 place return & 6.70 show return.

The final Grade 1 of the Keeneland Fall meeting is the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup and it's a good one, with six of the nine fillies already Graded stakes winners.

We used the Betmix Angler handicapping data base to scan the last six runnings of the QE II Challenge Cup and found that Average Last 3 Turn Time has been highly predictive.

Around 42% of the qualifiers contenders have had their pictures taken and 72% have hit the board. There have only been two double-digit winners of this race and this factor has pointed to one of them - 2013 heroine Kitten's Dumplings who paid out $11.80. This factor also selected 20-1 Madam Dancelot, 3rd in the 2017 edition.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Alcibiades S. & Breeders Futurity
8.5F on dirt at Keeneland (October 4 & 5)
Races Analyzed: Last 14 dirt graded stakes @for 2YOs at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%) $14.00 Win Return, 9 place/show (64%) $5.80 place return & 1.90 show return.

Keeneland is back with another tremendous "Fall Stars' weekend featuring many of the top horses in North America.

With the Alcibiades Stakes for fillies and the Breeders' Futurity for the colts, we will start to get a better idea of which flashy summer sprinters might be able to stay a route of ground. This uncertainty is one of the reasons these early two-turn juvenile races can be difficult to decipher.

Enter the Betmix Angler handicapping database. We queried Angler to mine the data on the 8.5 furlong juvenile dirt stakes at Keeneland since 2012 and found that Average Lifetime Earnings has been a key handicapping factor.

Around 42% of the qualifiers have crossed the wire in front and over two-thirds have hit the board. Among the winners are a trio of Alcibiades heroines, including the last two - Restless Rider ($4.60) & Heavenly Love ($13.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Ack Ack S. (G3)
8F on dirt at Churchill Downs (September 28)
Races Analyzed: Last 20 Churchill Downs 8F dirt stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Races Classes
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 7 winners (33%) $24.40 Win Return, 13 place/show (61%), $1.80 place return, $7.70 show return.

The complexion of the Ack Ack Stakes changed when likely fave Omaha Beach stayed home in California. The race now features a very evenly-matched field of nine middle-distance runners.

We analyzed the past 20 one-mile dirt stakes at Churchill Downs in the Betmix Angler handicapping software and found that Average of Last 3 Race Classes has been highly predictive.

A third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken and 61% have factored in the trifecta. Among the winners are three recent Ack Ack heroes - Awesome Slew (2017, $3.20), Bradester (2014, $4.40), Pants on Fire (2013, $7.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 Races Classes slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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After a summer of juvenile racing we thought it was a good time to check in on which sires have rewarded handicappers most in the baby races.

We began by using the Betmix Angler handicapping database to examine the sires with at least 30 juvenile starters in North America this year.

Tapiture, a Tapit son standing at famed Darby Dan Farm, has his first 2-year-olds on the track now and he leads all sires in our sample with a Win Return of nearly $100.

He's the sire of six double-digit mutuel winners already. Among those is Axiomo, a Maiden Special winner on the turf at Churchill Downs in June at 45-1 and multiple dirt winner Sky of Hook who paid $25.80 on debut on May 10 and $20.60 when victorious in the July 17 Rick Violette Stakes.

All eyes have been on another first year sire - Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. He's gotten off to a great start for owners, breeders and, as it turns out, bettors too. 20% of his starters have won in North America while producing a $13.80 Win Return.

The chart below shows the full results of the Angler 2-year-old sire data query.

Woodbine Mile
8F on turf at Woodbine (September 14)
Races Analyzed: Last 40 Woodbine 8F turf stkes (3 & up)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 41 contenders, 10 winners (24%) $41.50 Win Return, 24 place/show (58%) , $15.90 place return, $9.10 show return

Got Stormy is the morning line and most assuredly the public choice for Saturday's $1 million Woodbine Mile off a scintillating course-record performance over males in Saratoga's Fourstardave S. (G1) last month.

But she hasn't scared away many competitors and handicappers will have to decide whether to stand with the filly at a short price or focus on one of the other 10 contenders.

The Betmix Angler handicapping software can help with that decision.

We scanned the database and examined the past 40 one-mile turf stakes at Woodbine. We found that a more obscure handicapping factor, Horses Beaten %, has shown nice results in this race type - a $41.50 win return and a 58% in the money percentage along with positive place and show returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Ladies Turf Sprint S.
6.5F on turf at Kentucky Downs (September 7)
Races Analyzed: Last 11 Kentucky Downs 6.5 furlong stakes (3 & up)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%) $26.80 Win Return, 8 place/show (47%)

Huge purses drawing huge fields to contest races over a sprawling European-style course means there are no gimmes for handicappers at Kentucky Downs. Luckily for bettors, there is the Betmix Angler handicapping database.

We used Angler to analyze the recent 6.5 furlong stakes at the Southern Kentucky course with the hope of isolating a positive angle for the 15-horse Ladies Turf Sprint S. that carries a purse of $500,000. Not surprisingly, Angler came through.

The Best Speed Last 3 factor has pointed to 35% winners and a nearly $27 Win Return in the 6.5 furlong stakes for older runners at Kentucky Downs.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Tourist Mile S.
8F on turf at Kentucky Downs (August 31)
Races Analyzed: Last 14 Kentucky Downs 8 furlong stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Turf
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%), 10 place/show (55%) $5.60 place bet return

America's most unique racecourse, all turf Kentucky Downs, kicks off another season on Saturday, August 31. Fueled by a popular Instant Racing operation purses for the southern Kentucky track routinely draw overflow fields.

The Tourist Mile is a case in point with 14 middle distance turf specialists set to face the starter. It's a good thing the Betmix Angler handicapping database has plenty of info on this race type.

An Angler scan reveals that Best Speed Turf has been predictive in the 8 furlong stakes at Kentucky Downs. In fact, 5 of the past 6 winners of the Tourist Mile S. have ranked first in this factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Turf slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Travers S. (G1)
10F on dirt at Saratoga (August 24)
Races Analyzed: Last 13 Saratoga 10F dirt graded stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%), $29.10 win bet return, 211 ROI%, & 6 place/show (46%), $8.00 place return.

They're running the Travers stakes for the 150th time on Saturday, August 24 and it's drawn an extremely evenly matched group of sophomore colts.

A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping database shows that Last Late Pace has shown a good return in 10-furlong dirt graded stakes at Saratoga. Overall, 30% of the last 13 winners of this race type have ranked first in this factor, including a pair of Travers winners who returned double-digit win mutuels to their backers - Will Take Charge ($21.20) and Arrogate ($25,40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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