In the past two Factoring Pedigree posts we profiled the emerging first crop sires Girolamo and Twirling Candy. But it’s Scat Daddy who rules as North America's overall sire of two-year-olds this year, and by a wide margin.

The Ashford Stud stallion has 20 juvenile winners so far, well ahead of Twirling Candy’s 12, and his babies have racked up nearly $1.5 million in purses. A very impressive five of those winners are already stakes winners and they've captured a good number of the major North American juvenile blacktype races on the grass.

That Scat Daddy is a good sire of two-year-olds is no surprise. He won three of his first four starts at two, including the Champagne Stakes (G1). He was a good early three-year-old as well notching the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before being injured during his 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Scat Daddy also hails from a sire-line known for juvenile performance. His great grandsire, Storm Cat won the Grade 1 Young America Stakes in 1985 before being nosed out by Tasso in the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Storm Cat, of course, went to be one of the all-time great sires and Hennessy was one of his early stars after taking the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and just falling short to Unbridled’s Song in the 1995 BC Juvenile. Hennessy then sired Scat Daddy’s sire Johannesburg, who was able to win the Juvenile in 2001, finishing off an unbeaten international juvenile campaign.

Johannesburg was a Group 1 winner on European grass courses, so while Scat Daddy never ran on the grass, he is passing on his sire’s aptitude for the lawn.

Scat Daddy’s two-year-old daughter Acapulco scored one for the U. S. in the June 17 Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at the Royal Ascot meeting. Both juvenile turf stakes at Saratoga fell to the Scat Daddy clan - Azar (Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes) and Harmonize (P. G. Johnson Stakes). And just last Sunday, Conquest Daddyo scored in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes on the lush Woodbine grass course. Scat Daddy also has a good 2015 dirt juvenile in Pretty N Cool, winner of the Sorrento Stakes (G2) and runner-up to Songbird in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.

Overall, 17 of Scat Daddy's first 30  blacktype winners (56%) have won on the turf.

Scat Daddy was the #3 first crop sire in 2011 and made it up to 10th on the 2014 two-year-old sire list (after finishing 32nd and 70th the previous two seasons). Part of the reason we’re seeing so many Scat Daddy winners and stakes winners is simply that there are a lot of them out there - 150 to be exact. But make no mistake, he’s clearly establishing himself as an elite juvenile sire and one of the very best sires of any kind on the international stage. It will certainly be hard to ignore his sons and daughters at the windows in this fall's juvenile grass races.

Scat Daddy's 2015 Royal Ascot winner Acapulco.

Twirling Candy is out of the gate with 12 winners so far, the most of any North American first crop sire. Queen of Silence became winner number one on May 25 with a debut victory going 5/8ths on the Gulfstream Park turf course at odds of 10-1. Three more Twirling Candys have won on the grass and two others have earned victories on the all-weather tracks at Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs. 

Overall, the 12 Twirling Candy winners have come at 12 different tracks from California to Oklahoma to Florida and even over the famed course at Epsom Downs in England. 

The connections of these early winners appear to feel they have some quality as evidenced by the fact that six of the winners have come back to compete against stakes company. Two of them, Annie's Candy and Conquest Twitter, have picked blacktype placings.

Half of the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy have won at first asking, two second-time out, while a quartet took a little more time to get going, breaking through in their third starts.

Here's the full breakdown of the first 12 Twirling Candy winners:

*race favorite

Twirling Candy was a speedy and versatile runner on the Southern California circuit so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing his early runners performing on a variety of surfaces.

The son of the brilliant and undefeated Candy Ride went wire-to-wire in his racing debut in November of his juvenile season, a 7F affair over the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park. On the shelf until the following May, he reeled off three more victories, two of them on the grass at Del Mar in the Oceanside Stakes and Del Mar Derby (G2). Twirling Candy suffered his first loss next out against older runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes (now the Awesome Again Stakes). He then closed out his three-year-old campaign in with a track record performance, shading 1:20 in the 7F Malibu Stakes (G1) on the Santa Anita main track (1:19.70).

Twirling Candy's dam is a daughter of the Juddmonte Farm-bred turf star Chester House (a half-brother to American Pharoah's grandsire Empire Maker) which helps explain not only his own affinity for the lawn but also his progeny’s. We’ll have to wait and see if the Twirling Candys will excel at longer distances but both of his grandsires were Grade 1 winners at 10 furlongs and his fifth dam produced none other than 1978 Triple Crown hero Affirmed. For now, it's a good idea to give the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy a long look on any surface, at any track, anywhere in the world.

After a full summer of juvenile racing some new sires with first racing two-year-olds (first crop sires) have emerged that need to be kept on handicapper’s radars. One of those is Darley America’s Girolamo.

This son of A. P. Indy, who stood for just a $5,000 stud fee in 2015, is the sire of seven winners already from 20 starters. That figure puts him in a tie for second behind only Twirling Candy (10 winners) among first crop sires. Girolamo stood his first two years at Sequel Stallions New York and four of his early winners have come against state-bred company. He even appears to have a star-in-the-making in She’s All Ready, who’s dominated her first two starts by a combined 11 ¼ lengths, including a win in the $200,000 Seeking the Ante Stakes last Friday at Saratoga.

All seven of Girolamo winners have won at first asking and he’s had a winner on the grass and on a sloppy main track. Three Girolamo firsters have gone off favored with three others returning double-digit mutuels. Here’s a further breakdown of his seven winners:

*race favorite

In his racing days, Girolamo was more of an outlier for A. P. Indy, one of North America’s top late-developing and classic-distance influences. He was favored in his racing debut at Saratoga in mid-August of his juvenile season and didn’t disappoint. Coming out of the Kiaran McLaughlin barn, Girolamo coasted home under Alan Garcia by 3 ¾ lengths in a 7F main track Maiden Special. McLaughlin started him twice more at two with unplaced finishes in the Futurity Stakes & Champagne Stakes the result.

Girolamo's signature wins came later. At 3 he captured in the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes going a one-turn mile at Belmont Park and added the trophy for Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes going 7/8ths the following season.

Girolamo certainly has the pedigree to be a top flight stallion. A. P. Indy is the sire of several successful/important sons - Bernardini, Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Congrats among them. As is the case with Girolamo, the dams of the latter four are daughters of the great Mr. Prospector (and Bernardini’s dam is a Mr. Prospector great-granddaughter).

Girolamo’s female lineage is also exceptionally strong. The famed Carnegie/Phipps breeding operation cultivated this female family, one that's already produced successful stallions like Private Account, Mutakddim and the Maryland stalwart sire Not For Love (also the damsire of California Chrome). Girolamo’s full sister, Supercharger, is the dam of 2010 Kentucky Derby hero Super Saver, who is also emerging as a new force in the North America sire ranks. The WinStar Farm stallion now has three Grade 1 winners in his first crop, two at this year’s Saratoga meeting (Alabama winner Embellish the Lace and King’s Bishop winner Runhappy).

With this kind of pedigree it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Girolamo’s train on and excel as more distance racing is carded in the coming months. From what we've already seen, his sons and daughters should be respected no matter where they show up.

Available on both the desktop and mobile versions of Betmix, these buttons will give you a very accurate and quick way to handicap any race.

Clicking one of these buttons will create a mix for you based on the detailed race profile stats we compile for each race in Betmix.  Using these buttons individually or in combination can provide you with great handicapping angles in each race. As an example, if you are betting a superfecta, it would be a good idea to use the top ranked horse from each button.  If the top ranked horses are the same you can add the 2nd ranked horse to your tickets.

The TOP 10 button will create a mix based on the top 10 factors for the race type. It will give the most weight to the top ranked factor and a progressively smaller amount to every other factor in the top 10.  This is a good method for identifying the likely contenders in each race.

The WIN % button will create a weighted mix based on the factors that produce the highest percentage of winners. The highest weighted factor will be the one with the highest win %.  This button will identify a top win candidate.

This button will create a mix using factors that are good at identifying horses that will hit the board.  For each factor category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree) the factor that is most likely to predict a top 4 finish is weighted and used as part of the mix.  This is a great tool for finding a key horse for Trifectas and Superfectas.

This button creates a mix using the top factor in each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree). The factors are weighted based on their overall rank.  Using this button will identify the most "balanced" horse in the race, the one that ranks highly in each factor category.

This button uses factors that have high WIN ROI$.  Factors with high can identify horses that are potential longshots.  If the highest ranked horse using this mix is going off at high odds, then it means that the horse fits the profile of the typical longshot winner of the race type you are handicapping.

A few mixes to get you started at Keeneland

Another quick handicapping angle...

A few handicapping angles using race profile stats.

The recently improved Race Profile statistics have generated a lot of feedback and enthusiasm. We have received several emails from users about how they use the stats to handicap and we wanted to share a few of those methods with you.It probably goes without saying, but please remember that nothing works 100% of the time. These angles are provided to give you ideas on how to use the stats and provide you with some inspiration for developing your own methods.

We have spot checked these and found them to be pretty good, but have not done any deep analysis to provide long term win/loss statistics.  Again, the purpose of these tips is to provide you with some ideas and perhaps give you a couple of new approaches to put in your handicapping toolbox.

#1 Finding A Single

If you make multi-race bets (Pick3, Pick4, etc.) you know how important it is to find a solid horse to use as s single to reduce the cost of the tickets.  This is simple method to use, and is great at identifying solid favorites that you should never ignore.

How to do it: Look at the top ranked horse in the overall rankings.  If that horse is also the top ranked horse in the top ranked factor it is a one star single.  If it is also the top ranked horse in the 2nd ranked factor it is a 2 star single, and so on. You're not going to find any longshots using this method, but if you are looking for a likely winner this is an easy way to spot one.
#2 High ROI/High Accuracy

We received this angle from a user who also provided a spreadsheet of each of his picks using this method at Gulfstream Park in January and part of February.  His results showed that he made 144 bets ($4 per play) for a total of $576.00. He had 74 wins (51.3%), and collected $980.00 for a ROI of 70.22%.  His average winning payout was $13.25.How to do it: Looking at the top 3 factors only, find the factors with positive Win ROI.  If more than one of those 3 factors have positive win ROI's then look at the Factor Accuracy score.  The factor with the highest Factor Accuracy is the one to use.  If none of the top 3 factors have positive ROI's then skip the race.  If the factor has a positive win ROI , but the factor accuracy is not above 30 skip the race.  When you have a qualifying race you bet the top 2 horses for that factor to win.

#3 Pace Advantage in a top factor

We've talked about this before, but when a horse has a big advantage in a pace factor you can't ignore it. The Race Profile statistics make finding those horses very easy, and can let you know when it matters.  If a horse has an advantage in a factor that is ranked very low overall its not meaningful, but when that factor is in the top 10 it can produce great results.How to do it: Click on the PACE filter to show only pace factors in the statistics box.  Look for a factor that is ranked within the top 10 and see if the top ranked horse has an advantage of 5 points or more.  If you find a horse that fits the bill, consider giving extra attention to that horse if it appears within the top four in one or more of the top speed factors.  A pace advantage combined with being competitive in speed is a winning combination.

#4 Top Factors in each category

In many races you will notice that most of the top factors come from one category - usually speed. When you put too much emphasis on one category your handicapping may be unbalanced.  An easy way to make sure that you get a comprehensive view of the race is to use top factors from each category. You can select the top factor in each category and add it to the BetPad, or you can give them a value with the sliders to create a mix. The values can all be equal, or you can weight them based on their win percentage.It may not be necessary to use the top factor from each category. If the top ranked factor in Pedigree is ranked 27th overall you can safely ignore that category all together.

#5 Use the last race

One user sent us this suggestion along with some documentation of how many exactas he played and hit.  Very impressive!How to do it: Click on the Races Tab to bring up a list of the races used in compiling the race profile stats

After clicking the races tab, you will see a list of all the races used to compile the date for this race type.  Click on the date of the most recent race and that race will open up in a new window in MixMaker.

When that race is loaded, look at the results and then look at the top ranked factors to find one that contained the top 3 finishers.

Now,look for the highest ranked factor that contained those top 3 horses.

Go back to the race you are currently handicapping and look at the top 4 horses for the factor you found, and box those in an exacta. Very easy, and the results were surprisingly good.

These are nice angles to use for quick handicapping, but in the long run you are going to have much more success creating mixes for specific race.  There is nothing wrong with using methods like this, they can produce good results and can be done very quickly.  Keep in mind that the purpose of sharing these angles is to show you that there is always more than one way to skin a cat, and at the end of the day the only thing that really matters is winning the race. It doesn't matter if you used a mix that took you 6 hours to develop, or if you used one of these quick methods.  Cashing a ticket is all that counts!

We hope that you find something useful in these angles and that they inspire you to start looking at the data in new and profitable ways.