Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Betmix Tip – Using the Betmix Printable PP’s

The new Betmix Past Performances are not only printable they provide a wealth of summarized data that can be used to easily point out logical contenders and potential longshot plays.

The Saturday card at Tampa Bay Downs provided some good examples of the effectiveness of these innovative new PP’s.

The winner of the 5th race was the $18.80 Allie’s Event and it took just a few seconds time with the Betmix PP’s to see that the 6yo son of Wild Event was a major player. After the 11 horse scratched, Allie’s Event ranked first in the top four Factors most important in middle distance turf allowance contests at the Oldsmar, Florida track.

The Quick Handicapping box also show Allie’s Event on top in five of six categories (again after taking out the 11 horse).

Jan 11 blog QH
Saturday's 7th at Tampa is a good illustration of the new 'Who Beat Who' feature. The betting public sent Lox (#3) postward as the odds-on choice in the 8.5 furlong Maiden Claimer on the main track. But Bexmix PP users were immediately aware that American Merlot (#7) finished ahead of Lox in their last meeting on December 18. American Merlot won by a neck on Saturday at a $14.60 win mutuel, keying a $33.40 exacta with Lox.

 

TamRac7

Looking for Longshots

Betmix introduced the Handicapping Journal in November and feedback from our users has been overwhelmingly positive. The Journal provides an at-a-glance look at the previous day's results as well as a preview of the current day's racing landscape.

One way to use the Journal is to analyze the day's longshots listed in the Highest Paying Winners section.

Betmix subscribers can click through to pull up the Mix Maker page for that race. From there, click the Run MixMaker button to see if the Mix generated would have put the longshot winner the top selection (or close). If so, look to make sure the Mix uses factors that will likely be predictive in future races of that type.

Once a satisfactory Mix is isolated it can then be tested using the Race Profile report.

Let's take the January 2 San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita as an example of this process. The winner of the 8F Grade 2 stake on the grass was Flamboyant ($94.20). The Run Mix Maker button reveals that weighting just two factors equally, Last Turn Time and Distance Worked Since Last Race would have made Flamboyant a strong top choice.

RunMixMakerYour Mix

Anecdotally we can buy this. Last Turn Time and recent workout factors can certainly be indicative of a horse rounding into his/her best form and these more subtle factors can easily be overlooked by the majority of handicappers.

Clicking the Race Profile Report brings up all the 8-9 furlong turf stakes at Santa Anita going back to 2013. In this case we find a good sample size of 30 races. Using the sliders below the Results tabulation on the right side of the screen we can weight our two factors equally. By doing this we find that this Mix has pointed to five other winners, including an $85.40 winner (and a $31.00 place horse) just last May!

Win, Place, Show & exotic percentages are shown along with profit figures. All of these are incredibly strong. For instance, the win profit (for a $2 wager) is over $200 and the (top 4) trifecta box profit rings up at $731.50! (see full Results below).

Once a strong Mix like this is isolated it can be saved to your Mix Library for use on future races of the same type.

Results

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Betmix Enhancement – Printable PP’s

Many people like to have a printable copy of past performance information, and some of you have asked for PPs that can be viewed on a tablet or IPad. We are confident that our new PP's will satisfy both requests.
We've developed a new PP that we feel is more useful than the traditional PP that you buy at the racetrack.  The Betmix PP's contain a wealth of information that you just won't find in the track program.
To access the PPs, (they will download to your device as a PDF file), just click on the PP icon in the Today's Races screen, or on the Free Race of the Day.

Here are some of the features found in our printable PP's:

And some helpful information for each horse is displayed:

Pittsburgh Phil & Betmix, Both Ahead of Their Time

Legendary late 19th/early 20th-century horse player George Elsworth Smith, aka Pittsburgh Phil, is known for pioneering many important thoroughbred handicapping concepts. And a good many of those are just as relevant today as they were when all the men wore top hats and overcoats.

“Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.”

Betmix was essentially founded on this principle - to bring greater, often hidden, detail to the modern horse player. When ‘Phil’ first uttered those words over 100 years ago there was a decided lack of information available on the equine contestants of the day. In 2015 we not only have a wealth of data at our disposal but the computing power to parse it new and powerful ways.

The state-of-the-art Betmix software analyzes results from thousands of races to isolate the typical winning factors for a specific race type. For example, we now know that in one mile Allowance contests at Churchill Downs the horse with the highest Average Lifetime Earnings has won 35% of the time producing a win bet ROI of $8.00. With a few clicks and movement of the Betmix sliders you can find out which horse ranks best in this factor in the next race of this class and distance under the Twin Spires.

That’s just one example so things can quickly head into information overload territory. That’s why we’ve been introducing new ways to organize and present the available data making it easier for Betmix users to search out winning plays.

The most innovative of these new features is Command Center. This recently introduced page shows all the days North American races on single, sortable interface. Looking for races that tend to produce longshots? Sort by Avg. Win Payout to immediately isolate races that are often captured by high-priced winners. Or maybe you need a safe play to ice a lead in a handicapping tournament. Sorting by Hit the Board score quickly points out races with a single contender most likely to make the top three.

To take advantage of the full power of Betmix, just click anywhere on a race line to open the Mix Maxer/Race Profile interface for that race.

command_center_screenshot

"If there are two or three very fast horses in a race one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey."

‘Phil’ was on top of race shape long before ‘pace makes the race’ joined the handicapping vernacular. With Betmix it’s easy to check the possible pace scenarios in a given race. There are eight factors related to pace that can be quickly weighted with the Betmix sliders. A good way to check on potential early pace is to slide Avg of Last 3 E1 Pace over to see if a horse is shown to have a big early pace advantage. Conversely, you may find two or more horses are likely to scramble for the early lead. In the case of the latter, the Avg of Last 3 Late Pace or Avg of Last 3 Turn Time sliders come in handy to isolate who’s likely to be running fastest of all in the later stages of the race.

"The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment."

2015 translation: insist on value. On the Race Profile page, each factor also has Win, Place and Show return on investment (ROI) figures shown. For example, in the visual below Avg. Speed Last 3 not only wins 44% of the time in this race type it’s also been yielding a Win ROI of $28.40 (for a $2 bet). The Race Profile can be sorted by Win % and the ROI columns to instantly see which factors win most often and if they tend to produce payouts worth going after.

Race Value
Pittsburgh Phil passed away in 1909 with a reported $3.2 million in the bank. One has to wonder what that account would have looked like if Betmix were around in those days.

A few new Betmix Handicapping Tools

Three new Betmix tools:

1. Updated Horse pop-up info
When you click on a horse's name in Betmix you will see that horse's PP info.  We have added several new things to that screen.

A. If the horse had a layoff of more than 45 days, you will see that number in RED by the date of the race. You can use this information to see how well a horse typically runs back from a layoff.

B.  The AVG speed rating for each horse in the race that has run at today's distance and surface.  Speed ratings that are better than AVG will appear in Green and races where the speed rating was below AVG will appear in Red. This is very useful information for judging what it will take to win today's race and will help you easily spot capable horses.

C. The top three finishers in each previous start for the horse, horses listed in BOLD are running in today's race.

D. Trip comments for each previous race.

Take a look at this in the Free Race of the Day.

2. Detailed Track Report

When you click the TRACK REPORT button on any race screen you will see a pop up window that contains valuable information about the races being run at that track.

A. Winning posts positions for Dirt Sprints (less than a mile), Dirt Routes (mile or longer), Turf  Sprints and Turf Routes.

B. Information about what winning horses in each race type are paying.

C. The percentage of favorites that are winning each race type.  In the example above for Gulfstream West, you can see that there have been 205 races this meet and favorites have won 68 of those races (33%).  Dirt Route races have been the most predictable (40% favorites) and Turf Sprints have been the least predictable (26% favorites)

Take a look at this in the Free Race of the Day.

3. Sire, Trainer and Jockey report in the Handicapping Journal.

The Handicapping Journal is now listing data for Sires, Trainers and Jockeys.

List of the 10 sires with the most runners on the previous day, and current day. When you click on a horses name you will see detailed information about each runner sired by that stallion.  Where they ran, what type of race, purse, ML odds, finish position, purse money won, and $2 win bet pay out.  The information in the list is show a total for each horse.

The same information tables are available for the 10 trainers with the most runners and 10 jockeys with the most mounts.

Looking at this information will give you a better feel for what sires are producing the most winners, and what types of races they are doing well with.

Take a look at the Handicapping Journal everyday and see who is hot and who is not...

Quick handicapping method using Betmix

A Quick handicapping method using Betmix

There is a lot of information available in Betmix and its always helpful to take a look at some of the stats and features in a little more detail.
We often get questions about what certain things mean, or about how to use one of the tools.  Hopefully this handicapping method will explain some of the stats in more detail and give you some ideas on how to use BETPAD, one of our more popular tools.The TOP 4 stat and the ACCURACY stat 

The race profile stats contain information about how good each factor is at predicting the type of race you are looking at. There is information about Win%, Place%, Show %, Accuracy, Win ROI, Place ROI, Show ROI, TOP 4 and Advantage.  We get a lot of questions about Accuracy and TOP 4, so lets take a look at those in more detail.

The ACCURACY stat tells you how well a particular factor is at predicting the correct order of finish for the race.  If a factor had a score of 100, that would mean that the factor always predicted the correct order of finish for the top 4 finishers in the race - the top ranked horse always won, the 2nd ranked horse always ran 2nd, the 3rd ranked horse always ran 3rd, and the 4th ranked horse always ran 4th.  A cold superfecta every race!  Unfortunately, you will never see a factor with a score of 100...  However, factors that have an accuracy rating in the 30's and above are excellent to use when handicapping for exactas, trifectas, etc.

The TOP 4 stat tells you what percentage of the time a horse ranked in the top 4 for a particular factor wins the race.  Looking at the above screen shot, the factor Trainer Current Year has a TOP 4 score of 80%, which means that in the sample of similar races, a horse ranked in the Top 4 for Trainer current year won 80% of the time.  It is not unusual to see TOP 4 scores in the high 80's or even low 90's.  If you are a tournament player and are handicapping a race that has a factor with a high TOP 4 score you can feel very good about finding the winner in one of the 4 top ranked horses within that factor.
Each column in the factor detail table is sortable.  If you click on title of the column it will sort the factors from high to low. So, if you are looking for the factor that has the best Accuracy Score or Best Top 4 score, just click to sort and those will be at the top.
Using several factors in BetPad
Betmix is all about combining data, and using factors in combination to achieve a better overall result.  When you combine the best Accuracy Factor with the Best TOP 4 factor the results can be very powerful.  You can do that in a few ways (use the sliders) or you can click the Factor name within the table and it will be added to Bet Pad for you.
Its probably easier to watch how that is done than to explain it in an email, so take a look at this quick video to see how you can use a few key factors to come up with a very solid handicapping approach with just a few clicks.Combining Factors and Mixes in BetPad

Quick handicapping method using Betmix

Factoring Pedigree – Archarcharch

We've seen a good amount of both quantity and quality so far from the first juveniles by Archarcharch. The Spendthrift Farm stallion is the sire of 39 starters and 10 winners as of October 16, both figures ranking fifth among North American first crop sires.

Archarcharch is a son of (just) Arch, a son of Kris S. and a grandson of Roberto. His sire-line is more known for distance and turf but Archarcharch was a sprint stakes winner at two and raced exclusively on dirt. He won the 6F Sugar Bowl Stakes in mid-December of his juvenile season and then competed in the Oaklawn Park spring classics prep series culminating in an upset victory (at 25-1) of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. An injury sustained during his 15th-place finish in Animal Kingdom's Kentucky Derby sent him to Spendthrift Farm for stud duty beginning in 2012.

Archarcharch broke his maiden in that Sugar Bowl win so it's only fitting that his first stakes winner, Toews on Ice, won his first race in the $100,000 Barretts Juvenile Stakes (by 7 1/2 lengths). It's true that Allowance races for juveniles can be lacking but the fact that five other Archarcharch winners have competed in stakes so far is a likely indication of their quality (at least in the eyes of their connections). The maiden Next Shares has also earned some blacktype with a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga and Maiden Special winner Go No Go ran second by a neck in Oklahoma Classic Lassie Stakes on October 16 at Remington Park.

Most of the Archarcharch winners have rewarded bettors more handsomely. Only one his winners has gone favored and they've paid off at an average rate of 7-1.

Archarcharch has sired three turf winners and his progeny can be expected to do just fine on that surface despite the fact that their sire never touched the stuff. Along with his own turf-leaning sire-line he's out of a daughter of Irish juvenile champion Woodman (by Mr. Prospector) and his second dam is a daughter of the prolific turf sire Nureyev.

Here's a breakdown of the first 10 winners by Archarcharch:

Date Horse #Start/Race Class Won Margin Trainer Odds Track Distance/Footing Track Condition
 10/4 Joan of Arch  4th/Maiden Claiming 30k  3 1/4L M. Pearson  3.90 Santa Anita 8F, Dirt Fast
 9/23 Tia Chuy 3rd/Maiden Special  3L M. Castenada .80* Mountaineer 4.5F/Dirt Good
 9/20 Toews On Ice 3rd/Stake 7 1/2L B. Baffert 9.70 Los Al 6.5F/Dirt Fast
 9/18 Go No Go 1st/Maiden Special 2 1/2L B. Calhoun 4.80 Remington 5F/Dirt Fast
9/7 Theory of Change 1st/Maiden Special Head C. Brown 7.20 Saratoga 8.5F/Turf Firm
8/20 Archarella 3rd/Maiden Special  2L A. Pecoraro 5.70 Delaware Park 7.5F/Turf Firm
8/12 Arcature  1st/Maiden Special  1/2L S. Callaghan  5.10 Del Mar 8F/Turf Firm
7/25 Gran Magnific NA/Maiden Claiming NA NA NA Mexico NA NA
6/25 Whataclassylady 1st/Maiden Special 1L R. Morse 14.20 Churchill 4.5F/Dirt Fast
4/23 Tia Flor 2nd/Maiden Special 9 1/4L M. Castenada 11.40 Keeneland 4.5F/Dirt Fast

* race favorite

Factoring Pedigree – First Dude

It's not unusual for a Florida-based stallion to rocket up the first crop sire charts. Kantharos and Wildcat Heir are a couple of recent top 10 freshman sires who hailed from the Sunshine State. Those two were speedy and precious and so are most of their progeny. In 2015, we've seen a different type emerge in the form of Double Diamond Farm's First Dude, who is currently running second to Uncle Mo in the North American freshman sire race.

After a winless juvenile season (two runner-up finishes) First Dude was a major player in the three-year-old division in 2010. He broke his maiden going a mile at Gulfstream Park, ran third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and was second-best in the Preakness Stakes (G1) behind Lookin at Lucky. From there he placed in four more graded stakes but didn't find the winner's circle until a three-win four-year-old season that included a stunning victory over Game on Dude in the 10-furlong Hollywood Gold Cup (G1).

As a sire, First Dude is up to 11 winners after Flora Dora broke her maiden in the $500,000 My Dear Girl Stakes going 8.5-furlongs at Gulfstream Park on October 3. Another First Dude daughter, Enterprising Lady, ran second in that race. She's one of First Dude's four first out winners. Four other 'Dudes' won at second asking with three scoring in their third starts or later.

After an initial string of five straight Maiden Special winners, five of the past six First Dude winners have come in Maiden Claimers. Three of those winners were coming off failed attempts versus Maiden Special company.

As a son of the A. P. Indy distance specialist Stephen Got Even, and 10-furlong winner himself, it's a bit surprising to see so many First Dude winners at this point in the season. Bettors can expect his progeny's success to continue as they mature and face up to longer distances, no matter where they appear on the class ladder. The one caution might be off-tracks. Save for a single turf winner, all of the First Dude winners have come on fast main tracks.

Here's a rundown of the first 11 First Dude winners:

Date Horse #Start/Race Class Won Margin Trainer Odds Track Distance/Footing Track Condition
10/3 Flora Dora 2nd/My Dear Girl S.  1 1/2L M. Coffey 9.20 Gulfstream 8.5F/Dirt Fast
9/25 Woodburn 3rd/MClm 35 3 1/4L J. Braddy  1.70* Gulfstream 8F/Dirt Fast
 9/19  Phirst Phoebe 5th/MClm 25 3 1/4L D. Pita 3,00 Gulfstream 5.5F/Dirt Fast
 9/11  Alex the Dude 4th/MClm 25 Neck R. Nicks 4.90 Gulfstream 6F/Dirt Fast
 9/3  Behzad's Pride 2nd/MClm 25 5 1/2L A. Sano 7.30 Gulfstream  6F/Dirt Fast
8/6 Mama Joyce 2nd/MClm 50  10 3/4L R. Nicks 1.20* Gulfstream 5.5F/Dirt Fast
8/4 First Heritage 1st/Maiden Special  3 1/2L C. Clemente 2.00* Delaware Prk 7.5F/Turf  Firm
8/1 Enterprising Lady 1st/Maiden Special 1 1/4L R. Nicks  2.00 Gulfstream  5F/Dirt Fast
8/1 Sticksstatelydude 2nd/Maiden Special 2L K McLaughlin 1.05* Saratoga 6F/Dirt Fast
7/28 Klingon Warrior 1st/Maiden Special  5 1/2L K DeMasi  8.80 Parx  5F/Dirt Fast
6/20 No More Chillin 1st/Maiden Special  3 3/4L  R. Potts  1.90 Thistledown  5.5F/Dirt Fast

*race favorite

Factoring Pedigree – Lonhro

Sons and daughters of the stallion Lonhro have been popping up (and winning) juvenile races all over North America and Europe. But just who is this Lonhro character?

Nicknamed 'The Black Flash', Lonhro was a star on the Australian turf so Northern Hemisphere bettors and racing fans can be forgiven for being in the dark about this son of Octagonal. He was a Group 3 winner at two, a champion at three and Horse of the Year at five. His credentials earned him a plaque in the Australian Racing Hall of Fame in 2014.

He's carried that success over to the breeding shed, earning a sire championship Down Under as well. The now 17-year-old was imported to Darley America for the 2012 and 2013 Northern Hemisphere breeding seasons and we're now seeing the resulting juveniles from that first term.

Lonhro's initial Northern Hemisphere-bred winner appeared back on March 28 when Rah Rah notched a debut victory in a 5F Maiden race Kempton's all-weather course in the UK. After three more European winners, Holding Gold became the first Lonhro juvenile winner in North America when he emerged from the Mark Casse barn to capture his July 19 debut at Woodbine. So far a total of 11 Lonhro two-year-olds have found the winner's enclosure north of the equator.

Australian racing is conducted exclusively on turf so it's no surprise that only one of these first 11 Lonhro winners has scored on dirt (that being Ponytail, winner of her second start at Parx for trainer Michael Matz).

Lonhro does have some American influences in his pedigree - his dam is granddaughter of Mr. Prospector - but bettors shouldn't expect many main track winners from this sire. Lonhro was more adept at middle distances too, so the turf marathons his progeny will face later on could prove to be beyond their scope. For the time being though, the Lonhro's should be respected early in their careers whenever they break from the gate on grass and all-weather surfaces.

A full breakdown of Lonhro's first 11 winners:

Date Horse #Start/Race Class Won Margin Trainer Odds Track Distance/Footing Track Condition
9/20 Koala Queen  Debut/Maiden Special  Head A. Delacour 4.50 Laurel 5.5F/Tur Firm
9/19  Shakhimat Debut/Maiden Special  2 1/4 L  R. Attfield 4.20 Woodbine 7F/AW Fast
8/30 Ponytail  2nd/Maiden Special  5 1/2 L  M. Matz  3.20 Parx 5.5F/Dirt Fast
8/22 Isotherm 2nd/Maiden Special Neck G. Weaver  4.00 Saratoga 8.5F/Turf Firm
8/8 Apple Down Under  Debut/Maiden Special 3/4 L M. Hubley 3.80* Ellis Park 5.5F/Turf Firm
7/24 Blackflashgoddess 3rd/Maiden Special 2 1/4 L W. Bradley 1.90 Ellis Park 5.5F/Turf Firm
7/19 Holding Gold  Debut/Maiden Special  2 1/4 L M. Casse 4.25 Woodbine 5F/AW Fast
6/27 Plagiarism Debut/Maiden in England 1/2 L  M. Johnston  5.00 Newcastle 5F/Turf Good
6/12 Aquamerica  Debut/Maiden in France  3 1/2 L C. Ferland  4.80  Toulouse 7F/Turf Soft
6/3 Lockram 2nd/Maiden in England  2 3/4 Lnew M. Johnston  2.00*  Wolverhampton 6F/AW Fast
3/28 Rah Rah (GB) Debut/ Maiden in England  3 3/4 L M. Johnston  4.00  Kempton 5F/AW Fast

*race favorite

 

Factoring Pedigree – Scat Daddy

In the past two Factoring Pedigree posts we profiled the emerging first crop sires Girolamo and Twirling Candy. But it’s Scat Daddy who rules as North America's overall sire of two-year-olds this year, and by a wide margin.

The Ashford Stud stallion has 20 juvenile winners so far, well ahead of Twirling Candy’s 12, and his babies have racked up nearly $1.5 million in purses. A very impressive five of those winners are already stakes winners and they've captured a good number of the major North American juvenile blacktype races on the grass.

That Scat Daddy is a good sire of two-year-olds is no surprise. He won three of his first four starts at two, including the Champagne Stakes (G1). He was a good early three-year-old as well notching the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before being injured during his 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Scat Daddy also hails from a sire-line known for juvenile performance. His great grandsire, Storm Cat won the Grade 1 Young America Stakes in 1985 before being nosed out by Tasso in the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Storm Cat, of course, went to be one of the all-time great sires and Hennessy was one of his early stars after taking the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and just falling short to Unbridled’s Song in the 1995 BC Juvenile. Hennessy then sired Scat Daddy’s sire Johannesburg, who was able to win the Juvenile in 2001, finishing off an unbeaten international juvenile campaign.

Johannesburg was a Group 1 winner on European grass courses, so while Scat Daddy never ran on the grass, he is passing on his sire’s aptitude for the lawn.

Scat Daddy’s two-year-old daughter Acapulco scored one for the U. S. in the June 17 Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at the Royal Ascot meeting. Both juvenile turf stakes at Saratoga fell to the Scat Daddy clan - Azar (Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes) and Harmonize (P. G. Johnson Stakes). And just last Sunday, Conquest Daddyo scored in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes on the lush Woodbine grass course. Scat Daddy also has a good 2015 dirt juvenile in Pretty N Cool, winner of the Sorrento Stakes (G2) and runner-up to Songbird in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.

Overall, 17 of Scat Daddy's first 30  blacktype winners (56%) have won on the turf.

Scat Daddy was the #3 first crop sire in 2011 and made it up to 10th on the 2014 two-year-old sire list (after finishing 32nd and 70th the previous two seasons). Part of the reason we’re seeing so many Scat Daddy winners and stakes winners is simply that there are a lot of them out there - 150 to be exact. But make no mistake, he’s clearly establishing himself as an elite juvenile sire and one of the very best sires of any kind on the international stage. It will certainly be hard to ignore his sons and daughters at the windows in this fall's juvenile grass races.

Horse-Acapulco-92715-636x424

Scat Daddy's 2015 Royal Ascot winner Acapulco.