Tag Archives: Sharp Angles

Sharp Angles – Florida Derby & Mervin Muniz H.

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We've been on a very good roll with the Sharp Angles blog the past six weeks, pointing to a total of five winners from nine qualifying contenders. That's a 55% strike rate. The flat win bet ROI on all Sharp Angles plays so far in 2017 is now $8.20 and they've shown a small show bet profit as well. This week we're brining back a pair of winning Sharp Angles that can also be applied to two of the big races on the first 'Super Saturday' of the year.

Florida Derby (G1)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 15 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 9 winners (43%, $115.00 flat win bet profit, 373 ROI%, 11 total win/place, $16.10 flat place bet profit, 138 ROI%).

This Angle hit just last week when third choice Fear the Cowboy powered to victory in the Skip Away Stakes (G3). While that race is for older runners Last Turn Time has also pointed to the winners of three of the past four editions of the Florida Derby: Nyquist ($4.40) in 2016, Constitution ($7.60) in 2015 and Orb ($7.80) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Mervin Muniz H. (G2)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 9 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $14.60 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 6 first or second (46%, $13.00 flat place bet profit, 150 ROI%)

We first highlighted this Angle back in late February for the Fair Grounds Handicap and got Enterprising home first at an $8.00 mutuel. It’s been especially effective in recent runners of the Mervin Muniz with three of the past four winners ranking first in Last Turn Time: Chocolate Ride in($10.60) 2015, Skyring ($17.40) in 2014 and Amira’s Prince ($4.60) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Last Week’s Results - Fear the Cowboy ($9.20) 1st in Skip Away Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Pasadena S.

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Pasadena Stakes
8F on the turf at Santa Anita (March 18)
Races Analyzed: 19 3YO non-graded turf stakes at 8F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 9 winners (36%, $52.20 flat win bet profit, 204 ROI%, 12 total win/place, $5.70 flat place bet profit, 111 ROI%).

Santa Anita’s grassy Pasadena Stakes may not be the most glamorous blacktype event for three-year-olds this weekend but it just might yield a very nice payoff. Looking at the past 19 one mile non-graded stakes for sophomore turfers at Santa Anita we find that Speed Last Race is a key factor in isolating winners. No shock there. Fast horses win races, right?

What’s a pleasant surprise with this factor, though, is that it’s produced some juicy winners as evidenced by the strong $52.20 flat win bet profit. Two years ago the three-year-old filly Singing Kitty swept the Cal Cup Oaks (paying $17.40) and the China Doll Stakes at a $41.60 mutuel. This factor has worked well for the colts too, producing the last two Pasadena winners in Papacoolpapapacool ($12.40) and Dressed in Hermes ($2.80). The average odds of all 25 contenders is nearly 7-1 and their average finish is 3.68.

Last Week’s Results - Ivan Fallunovalot 2nd at 5.20-1 in Hot Springs Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Fair Grounds H.

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Fair Grounds H. (G3)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (February 25)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 3 winners (25%, $8.60 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 5 first or second (41%, $11.20 flat place bet profit, 146 ROI%)

This week the racing world turns it’s attention to Fair Grounds in New Orleans where the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap is one of six stakes on the docket. The 9-furlong grass race serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial H. over the same course & distance on April 1. We’ve uncovered a nice Sharp Angle that applies to both fixtures.

The last eight 9-furlongs turf graded stakes in the Big Easy have yielded a total of 12 contenders who’ve ranked first in Last Turn Time. Three of those (25%) have found the winner's circle, two at double digit odds. Among the group is Skyring, winner of the 2014 Muniz H. at nearly 8-1. He also qualified as a contender in that year's Fair Grounds H. where he ran second at 15-1.

Last Sharp Angles results: Imperial Hint ($7.60) & Never Gone South (37-1), 1st & 3rd in General George S. ($248 tri with favorite 2nd); Clothes Fall Off, 3rd at 8.30-1 in Barbara Fritchie S.

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Sharp Angles – Barbara Fritchie S. & General George S.

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Barbara Fritchie S. (G2) & General George S. (G3)
7F on the dirt at Laurel (February 18)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 7F furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 3 winners (37%, $5.20 flat win bet profit, 132 ROI%), 6 in the money (75%, $1.80 flat show bet profit, 111 ROI%)

Laurel Park hosts a stakes-packed ‘Winter Carnival’ card on February 18 with the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie S. and Grade 3 General George S. serving as the co-features. Both contests are run at 7 furlongs on the main track and the Best Speed Today’s Track factor has been prescient in selecting winners of these two races.

This factor pointed to last year’s General George hero Page McKenney ($6.80) and two of the past three Fritchie winners in Lady Sabelia (2015) and My Wandy’s Girl (2014), who both scored at 5/2 odds. Three others have hit the board, including Il Villano, runner up in the 2013 General George.

Last Sharp Angles results: McCraken ($5.00) 1st, Fact Finding 5th in Sam F. Davis S.

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Sharp Angles – Sam F. Davis S.

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Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
8.5F on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs (February 11)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YO colts at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 11 qualifying horses, 4 winners (36%, $30.60 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 239), 6 win/place (54%, $9.4 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 142.7)

The 2017 Kentucky Derby trail winds through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 11 with the 38th edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). The Davis is run at the same 8.5F distance on the main track as the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby (G2) so the last four runnings of each fixture constitutes our eight-race group.

It’s a small sample but one that has yielded very good and very specific success in this very race. Ranking first in Win % has pointed to three of the past four Sam Davis winners: 2015 champ Ocean Knight ($5.20), 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) and Falling Sky ($17.80) who triumphed by a neck in 2013. We’ll certainly take those double-digit payoffs.

Last Sharp Angles results: Classic Empire, 3rd at .50-1 in Holy Bull Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Holy Bull S.

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Holy Bull S. (G2)
8.5F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (February 4)
Races Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 16 qualifying horses, 8 winners (50%, $19.80 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 161), 11 win/place (68%, $5 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 115)

Excitement for the 2017 Kentucky Derby will be amped up this weekend after three more graded preps at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. Betmix Angler may be of help in handicapping Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull Stakes, a mile and one sixteenth (8.5F) affair that has drawn a field of nine Derby aspirants.

The past four Holy Bull winners have ranked first in Best Speed Fast Track - Mohaymen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40). This factor has pointed to four other winners, including Wildcat Red, the $11 winner of the 2014 Fountain of Youth S. (G2).

No one will be buying a private island with these payoffs but there is always value in determining whether it’s prudent to stand with or against the public’s choices. With a strong fave like champion Classic Empire in this year’s Holy Bull field, Best Speed Fast Track should be the ideal place to start handicapping his chances of finding the winner's circle again on Saturday.

Last Sharp Angles results: Lobelia 8th at 53-1 in La Prevoyante H. & Danish Dynaformer 8th at 9/2 in W. L. McKnight H.

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Sharp Angles – Hollywood Derby

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Hollywood Derby (G1)
9 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar
Races Analyzed: 9 Del Mar G1’s 9 furlongs on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%), 269% ROI

With Hollywood Park now transforming into the home of the Los Angeles Rams, the December 3 Hollywood Derby will be run for the third time over the Del Mar turf course at 9 furlongs. Three of the four winners in this 9 furlong grassy G1 winner sample have paid double digits with 2014 Del Mar Oaks winner Personal Diary (pictured) showing the highest mutuel. That filly paid $20.20 when she crossed the wire first for trainer Victoria Oliver.

personal_diary_del_mar_oaks_2014_615x400_orig

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