Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park (2 Divisions Race 8 & 10)
8.5F on Dirt (March 16, 2019)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 28 8.5-furlong stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 32 contenders, 8 winners (25%, $142.40 flat win bet return, 322 ROI%), 17 win/place (53%, $23.60 flat place bet return & $15.10 flat show bet return).

Oaklawn Park's gracious offer to split a $1 million Rebel Stakes into two divisions is a boon to horseman, racing fans and potentially to horseplayers. The Betmix Angler online handicapping database holds information for the past 28 graded stakes for 3-year-olds at the Hot Springs, Arkansas oval. Our analysis of those races found a risky but potentially very lucrative Sharp Angle that can be applied to both divisions.

A total of 32 contenders in this race type have ranked first in Average of Last 3 Turn Time. One quarter of them have found the winner's circle and over half (53%) have finished in the money. They've also yielded a whopping $142.40 Win Return along with double-digit Place and Show Returns. The caution is that those big Returns have come largely from longshot Super Steed who sprang the $126.60 upset less than four weeks ago in the Southwest Stakes. However, there are two other double-digit winners for this angle - High North, winner of last year's Northern Spur Stakes at $11.80 and 2017 Fantasy Stakes (G2) heroine Ever So Clever ($33.60). This angle also pointed to last year's Rebel winner Magnum Moon who returned a solid $8.00 to his backers.

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We put the Betmix Angler handicapping software to work this week to find profitable factors for all nine stakes races on the March 2 Fountain of Youth Day card at Gulfstream Park:

Palm Beach S. (G3) & Herecomesthebride S. (G3) 8.5F Turf (Races 4 & 8)
Races Analyzed - 42 8.5F turf stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Sharp Angle stats -13 winners (30%) $67.40 Win Return, 18 win/place (43%) $8.20 Place Return

Canadian Turf S. (G3) & Honey Fox S. (G3) 8F Turf (Races 5 &11)
Races Analyzed - 31 8F graded turf stakes at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st in Trainer 2-year Win % This Race Type
Sharp Angle stats - 8 winners (24%) $5.80 Win Return, 23 win/place/show (69%) $13.40 Place Return & $13.60 Show Return

Gulfstream Park Sprint S. (G3) 6F Dirt (Race 6)
Races Analyzed - 22 6F graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-year Win %
Sharp Angle stats - 9 winners (40%) $18.20 Win Return

The Very One S. (G3) 9.5F Turf (Race 7)
Races Analyzed - 22 9-10F graded turf stakes at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st in Average Earnings Today's Track
Sharp Angle stats - 7 winners (30%) $5.80 Win Return, 17 win/place/show (73%) $7.40 Show Return

Davona Dale S. (G2) 8F Dirt (Race 12)
Races Analyzed - 8 8F graded dirt stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st in Avg. of last 3 E2 Pace
Sharp Angle stats - 3 winners (33%) $40.20 Win Return, 7 win/place/show (77%) $19.80 Place Return & $10.10 Show Return

Holy Bull Stakes (G2) 8.5F Dirt (Race 13)
Races Analyzed - 27 8.5F graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st in Last Late Pace
Sharp Angle stats - 12 winners (42%) $31.20 Win Return, 22 win/place (75%) $4.90 Place Return & $5.00 Show Return

Mac Diarmida S. (G2) 11F Turf (Race 14)
Races Analyzed - 30 11F or longer graded turf stakes at Gulfstream Park
Sharp Angle - 1st Best Speed Turf
Sharp Angle stats - 12 winners (33%) $24.60 Win Return, 23 win/place/show (63%) $25.00 Place Return & $20.10 Show Return

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Buena Vista S. (G2) at Santa Anita
8F on Turf (February 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 79 8-furlong graded turf stakes at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: 79 contenders, 28 winners (35%, $33.40 flat win bet return, 121 ROI%), 30 win/place (49%, $5.00 flat place bet return)

With the President's Day weekend behind us there is a dearth of stakes races being contested across North America this Saturday and Sunday. However, that doesn't mean there aren't some good wagering opportunities. The Grade 2 Buena Vista at Santa Anita carries the highest grade of the 11 stakes on the North American docket and it's a race worth targeting based on our query of the vast Betmix database.

Using the Betimx Angler handicapping software we discovered that the Average Turf Earnings factor has yielded 28 winners of the past 79 one-mile turf stakes at Santa Anita (35%). Just shy of half of the qualifiers have factored in the exacta and this angle has produced a buena Win Return of $33.40.

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When we analyzed the top 15 turf sires of 2017 last winter we were surprised to learn that only the runners sired by Giant's Causeway had produced a flat Win bet profit. This year we went a little deeper, looking at the top 25 grass sires (ranked by progeny earnings on the Blood-Horse General Sire list).

The chart below shows the results for those 25 stallions in North American grass races. The progeny of Giant's Causeway once again eked out a Win profit but Quality Road was the only other sire whose progeny showed a Win positive. That Lane's End sire was also tops by Win % (18.48%) and ranked a close 2nd to Blame in terms of In the Money %.

2018 Turf Sires (sorted by Win Return)

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.

Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs
8.5F on Dirt (February 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 12 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer This Year
Factor Stats: 19 contenders, 7 winners (36%, $37.80 flat win bet return, 199 ROI%), 13 win/place/show (68%, $20.40 flat place bet return & $8.60 flat show bet return)

The February 9 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs is the next stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The race has actually had a larger impact on the Belmont Stakes than the Kentucky Derby in recent years with 2017 Belmont winner Tapwrit running second to McCraken and the 2016 Davis winner Destin the eventual Belmont runner-up.

No matter the future impact of the race, the Betmix Angler handicapping software tells us that trainers make a difference in the 8.5 furlong graded stakes at Tampa. Overall, 36% of the winners and nearly 70% of all in-the-money finishers ranked first in the Trainers This Year factor. The sample includes four of the past six Davis winners:

• 2013 winner Falling Sky ($17.80) trained by John Terranova
• 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) trained by Todd Pletcher
• 2015 winner Ocean Knight (5.20) trained Kiaran McLaughlin
• 2016 winner Destin ($10.00) Todd Pletcher

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Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream Park
8.5F on Dirt (February 2)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 27 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 12 winners (44%, $33.20 flat win bet return, 161 ROI%), 21 win/place/show (77%, $6.90 flat place bet return & $4.40 flat show bet return)

The next stops on the road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby are Saturday at Gulfstream Park (Holy Bull Stakes) and Santa Anita (Robert B. Lewis Stakes). Ten horses go for the trophy in the Holy Bull and we found a profitable angle for Gulfstream Park graded stakes at carded at the races' 8.5 furlong distance.

According to the Betmix Angler handicapping software, Last Late Pace has pointed to 44% winners in this race type. The sample includes the past three Holy Bull winners - Moyahmen ($2.60), Irish War Cry ($10.80) and Audible ($8.40).

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La Prevoyante S. & W. L. McKnight S. at Gulfstream Park
12F on Turf (January 26)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 22 12-furlong turf stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Turf
Factor Stats: 26 contenders, 8 winners (30%, $21.40 flat win bet return, 141 ROI%), 16 win/place/show (61%, $25.00 flat place bet return & $16.90 flat show bet return)

Saturday's Pegasus World Cup card at Gulfstream Park is the first big racing day of 2019 with nine stakes races on the docket. Two of those, the La Prevoyante S. (Race 8) for fillies & mares and the W. L. McKnight S. (Race 10) for males, will be run at 12 furlongs over the Gulfstream grass course.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online software to analyze the most successful handicapping factors for 12-furlong grass stakes at the South Florida track and found that Best Speed Turf has produced very good percentages and profits. One third of the 26 contenders ranking first in this factor have found the winner's circle, showing a healthy $21.40 win return. A full two-thirds of the contenders have made the tri sparking a $25.00 flat place bet return and a nearly $17 show bet return.

Among the winners are Texting, heroine of last year's La Prevoyante at a $7.40-1.

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Last week, we used the Betmix Angler online handicapping software to see which jockeys performed best in six 2018 stakes race categories. This week we take a look at the trainers.

There were few surprises with Bob Baffert showing the most wins in Dirt Middle Distance and Distances stakes and ranking second only to Steve Asmussen in Dirt Sprint stakes. On the grass it really was Chad Brown (almost) all the time with a combined 49 stakes victories in Turf Middle Distance and Distances races. Perhaps the one surprise is that a flat bet win bet on all of Browns' Turf Distance starters yielded a $46.30 profit.

The six visuals below show stats for all the top stakes race trainers in 2018.

DIRT

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Dirt Sprint Stakes (4F - 7.5F)

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Dirt Middle Distance Stakes (8F - 9F)

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Dirt Distance Stakes (9.5F +)

TURF

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Turf Sprints (4F - 7.5F)

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Turf Middle Distance (8F - 9F)

Trainers by Wins in 2018 Turf Distance (9.5F +)

For more information on how to use Betmix Angler, click here.

It was another great year in thoroughbred racing and another year where big data and advanced metrics took further hold in front offices across American sports. Readers of this post likely know that this approach to thoroughbred handicapping arrived a few years ago when Betmix was launched.

The Angler interface is where Betmix users can run their own queries of the vast Betmix database. We decided to use the database to see how jockeys performed in 2018 Stakes races, on dirt and turf, and at varying distances. But first we wanted to take a look at the overall North American Stakes landscape in 2018 compared with 2017:

Anecdotally we know that turf sprint racing in on the rise in North America and our query bears that out. There were 20 more turf sprint stakes run in 2018 than in 2017, an increase of 14%.

So which jockeys performed best in these six Stakes race categories? The visuals below provide the answers.

DIRT

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Dirt Sprint Stakes (4F - 7.5F)

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Dirt Middle Distance Stakes (8F - 9F)

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Dirt Distance Stakes (9.5F +)

TURF

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Turf Sprints (4F - 7.5F)

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Turf Middle Distance (8F - 9F)

Jockeys by Wins in 2018 Turf Distance (9.5F +)

For more information on how to use Betmix Angler, click here.

Pan Zareta S. at Fair Grounds
5.5F on Turf (January 5)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 37 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 13 winners (35%, $35.00 flat win bet return, 147 ROI%), 24 win/place/show (64%, $11.80 flat place bet return & $8.80 flat show bet return)

We first presented this Sharp Angle for the Bonapaw Stakes a few weeks ago in New Orleans and that proved to be beneficial for Betmix handicappers.

The January 5 running of the Pan Zareta Stakes for fillies & mares is run at the same 5.5 furlong distance over the Fair Grounds grass course. The Bonapaw was won by Wynn Time, the second choice at $2.40-1. He's this 13th winner of this racetype to rank first in Average of Last 3 Late Pace and his victory increased the Win Return to a hearty $35.

To find the horse that ranks first in this factor, open Betmix BirdDog and find Race 9 at Fair Grounds for January 5 (top left). Then use the Factor Statistics slider for Average of Last 3 Late Pace to isolate the Sharp Angles contender.

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